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GUEST OPINION: Trails can stimulate the economy in Atlantic Canada – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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here are many things that this pandemic will have taught us, however for many it has reinforced the value of trails and greenspaces.

As a trail professional of nearly 20 years I’ve always valued trails and greenspaces, however in this fast-paced world with ever-changing technologies, many people began to take the great outdoors for granted.

With limited activities to do during the pandemic and many people stuck in the house most of the day, the opportunity to get outside and breathe some fresh air is now becoming something that is vital for their well-being.

These days I’m inundated by Facebook posts, tweets or Instagram posts of people relishing in the outdoors and thankful to have access to trails and greenspaces. As we begin to become accustomed to a new normal, it’s time for us as a society to start thinking about getting back to some of the more simple things in life and how these things can act as both a social and economic catalyst for communities. Many of these things don’t need to be complicated, but can have a tremendous impact as we begin to come back from the ramifications of COVID-19.

One of these opportunities is to foster the development of a trail economy. Many countries have capitalized on the trail economy; however Canada and Atlantic Canada have not come close to realizing the potential it has in developing a strong economy based on greenway trails. The trail economy is the idea of generating both indirect and direct revenue through the development and promotion of trails as a product.

This however is not a “build it and they will come” scenario; it requires significant engagement between trail managers working hand in hand with outfitters, business owners and community leaders to ensure that there is a strong integration between all stakeholders. What it doesn’t require, however, is significant investment of funds to get these relationships developed.

Prince Edward Island is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the trail economy and is in a unique position as an established tourist destination. The Island is well known for their hospitality and many people consider P.E.I. as a premier vacation destination.

The Confederation Trail provides tourists and residents alike with a 450-km trail that spans the province and provides access to many of the most scenic coastal regions on the Island. A feature that the Confederation Trail has over many of its counterparts is the relative short distance between communities thus allowing trail tourists with good access to food and beverage, accommodation and other critical amenities to ensure that they have a memorable experience.

It’s now time for these communities and the provincial government to take advantage of this feature and ensure that they are properly equipped to take on the task of welcoming these tourists to their beautiful towns and villages. The development of programs such as Trail Towns, where the business community and other key stakeholders work together to assess their attributes and work together to fill in their service gaps in the next key step of the development of the Confederation Trail as a tourism product.

Trails and greenspaces connect us to the land, the people and histories of our communities. With many people staying close to home this year and perhaps in the years to come, let’s take this time to get better connected, learn more about the region, create a stronger and healthier population and a more vibrant economic outlook for Atlantic Canada.

Jane Murphy-McCulloch is a principal at Terminus Consulting and was national director of Trail with the Trans Canada Trail, developing 10,000km of land and water trail along with road cycling infrastructure to ensure the successful connection to the national trail system in 2017.

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Economy

Britain's economic recovery faltering, Bank of England to step up spending: Reuters poll – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) – The Bank of England is likely to supplement its quantitative easing war chest next month to offer more support to an economy still struggling amid coronavirus restrictions on activity and fears of a no-deal Brexit, a Reuters poll found.

Surging coronavirus infection numbers have pushed the government to tighten curbs across swathes of the country to try to stop the spread. More areas face tougher lockdowns in coming days.

A national lockdown earlier this year that forced businesses to close and citizens to stay home meant the UK economy contracted an historic 19.8% in the second quarter.

While the Oct. 13-19 poll predicted 16.7% growth last quarter, the outlook has darkened. The economy is expected to expand 2.6% this quarter and 1.0% next – weaker than the respective 3.4% and 1.3% median forecasts given last month.

For all of 2020, the economy will contract 10.1% but expand 6.1% next year, according to the poll of 78 economists, compared with the respective -10.0% and +6.1% forecasts given last month.

“The resurgence of COVID-19 across the UK and the resulting restrictions mean the recovery is set to stall. It now looks fairly inevitable that the Monetary Policy Committee will top-up its asset purchase programme,” said James Smith at ING.

With Bank Rate already at a record low of 0.10%, and 59 of 64 economists who responded to an extra question saying the MPC would not take it below zero, the focus will be on bond buying, or quantitative easing.

Having added 300 billion pounds to the programme earlier this year, taking its total projected spend on gilts to 725 billion pounds, the median forecast in the poll was for a 100 billion pound top-up on Nov. 5.

“That would give policymakers scope to continue making purchases until early summer next year if the pace of purchases stays broadly similar,” ING’s Smith said.

Bank Rate was not expected to move until 2023 at least and only two of the 68 economists polled expected any change next month.

KEEP TALKING?

London said on Monday the door was still open if the European Union wanted to make some small concessions to save Brexit trade talks but unless the bloc budged there would be a no-deal exit in 10 weeks.

Britain’s informal EU membership – known as the transition period – ends on Dec. 31.

“Enough progress has been made to keep the talks alive so that negotiators return to the table and a deal will eventually be done and be in place by the end of the year,” said Liz Martins at HSBC.

The latest Reuters poll gave a median 40% chance no deal is made, unchanged from last month, and as in all Reuters polls since the June 2016 decision to leave the bloc, it said the most likely outcome was still some form of free trade agreement.

“It remains in everyone’s interest to avoid a no-deal outcome,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

“The economic headwinds posed by COVID-19 will exacerbate the costs of a no-deal Brexit, and the British government would be wise to do whatever is necessary to avoid it.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Sarmista Sen and Swathi Nair; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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Economy

The Economy Is Driving Women Out Of The Workforce And Some May Not Return : Consider This from NPR – NPR

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More than 1,000,000 Americans left the workforce in September. About 80% of them were women.

Nam Y. Huh/AP

Nam Y. Huh/AP

Women are dropping out of the workforce in much higher numbers than men. Valerie Wilson of the Economic Policy Institute explains that women are overrepresented in jobs that have been hit hardest by the pandemic and child care has gotten harder to come by.

The situation is especially dire for Latina women, as NPR’s Brianna Scott reports. Last month, out of 865,000 women who left the workforce, more than 300,000 were Latina.

Victoria de Francesco Soto of the University of Texas at Austin explains why it’s not just the pandemic economy hurting women. Some may be left out of the recovery, too.

In participating regions, you’ll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what’s going on in your community.

Email us at considerthis@npr.org.

This episode was produced by Brianna Scott, Lee Hale and Brent Baughman. It was edited by Sami Yenigun with help from Wynne Davis. Our executive producer is Cara Tallo.

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Economy

China just became the first country to grow its economy after Covid-19. What lessons can the U.S. learn? – NBC News

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Chinese officials announced this week that the country’s economy grew by 4.9 percent in the third quarter, a positive sign from the initial Covid-19 epicenter. Some of the rebound in the world’s second-largest economy is due to containment measures that would be hard to replicate or enforce in a democracy — but there are still lessons the United States can learn.

“It’s not clear, really, that is this a credible number,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s just not credible in my opinion, unless you assume some very significant productivity improvement,” he said, since some metrics of industrial activity were weaker than the official GDP growth figures would indicate.

Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist, Asia Pacific at Natixis, noted that retail sales figures, although improving, remain lower than they were a year ago, and private sector investment remains depressed.

“The challenge ahead is whether, and to what extent, household disposable income could be further lifted to speed up consumption,” she said, as well as sustaining an export-driven manufacturing recovery in an environment where global demand remains slack.

But even the economists who doubt Beijing’s numbers agree that China’s economy is on the rebound. The IMF estimated that its GDP will grow by 1.9 percent for all of 2020, the only major economy to inch back into positive territory in a year that saw economies around the globe tumble sharply.

China’s economic improvements “would not have been possible if China was suffering from the same second waves of the virus we’re seeing in most parts of the developed world.”

“China’s success so far in preventing small clusters of Covid-19 from eruption controllably certainly was key to the economy retaining positive growth momentum in Q3,” Chanco said, adding that these improvements “would not have been possible if China was suffering from the same second waves of the virus we’re seeing in most parts of the developed world.”

To an extent, China’s success containing and mitigating the spread of the coronavirus is the result of an authoritarian government and surveillance state that had the autonomy to impose sweeping lockdowns, prohibit travel and mandate contact tracing protocols.

“There’s no doubt that the Chinese government has had tools at its disposal that you don’t have in a democracy. You can’t force everyone to download a tracing app and literally lock up thousands who are infected,” Kirkegaard said.

He also pointed out, though, that places like Taiwan and New Zealand have also succeeded in largely eradicating the spread of Covid-19. “It’s not true that it’s only dictatorships that can do this,” he said.

The difference lies in a coordinated central response, a willingness to funnel resources where needed and adherence to public health experts’ recommendations, experts said.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said early and decisive government action made all the difference in Australia, China, New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea. Aggressive lockdowns and cautious reopening protocols — including mandatory contact tracing and enforcement of quarantine directives — cut community spread.

“The benefits of mask-wearing and social distancing have also been taken as scientific givens, and not as subjects for political debate,” Zandi added.

Unlike the Trump administration’s crusade against increased testing, countries that have successfully contained the virus scaled up their ability to test large portions of their populations.

“They poured massive resources into testing and tracing,” Kirkegaard said. “They never doubted science and they never really had this idea that there was some sort of trade-off between the virus and the severity of the lockdown.”

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