Right now, roughly one-in-10 new cars driving off the lot are electric or plug-in hybrid. By 2035, the government has declared that number needs to be … all of them.
As far as goals go, you can’t fault the ambition, but is it even feasible?
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Guilbeault wants to ban gas-powered car sales by 2035. Is that even possible?
Zero-emission vehicle sales will have to double within three years to hit the government’s first sales target
It depends on who you ask, but skeptics abound in both the automotive and energy sectors.
Automakers that don’t hit that target can offset new financial penalties by buying “credits” from other automakers or by building EV chargers (each $20,000 tranche of investment will be worth one credit).
Here are some of the questions Ottawa is face in its challenge to meet the target.
So does that mean 100 per cent of vehicles on Canadian roads will be zero-emission by 2035?
No. By the government’s estimate, it will take another 15 years for the last of gas-powered cars— or what it now calls “polluting light-duty vehicles” — to get off Canadian roads. The mandate only applies to new vehicles sold in Canada.
How many electric vehicles are actually sold in Canada yearly?
According to Statistics Canada data, only 10 per cent of new vehicle registrations across the country (132,783 total) were for electric vehicles or hybrids in the first nine months of 2023. But the average is pulled up significantly by British Columbia and Quebec, where heavy provincial rebates or tax incentives push their provincial averages up above 20 per cent.
Will there even be enough zero-emission cars by 2035 to be able to meet that demand?
Few observers appear to doubt the availability of enough zero-emission vehicles by 2035, but Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association President Flavio Volpe said the “overly aggressive” rules by Ottawa can “only” be met by importing vehicle from foreign manufacturers like Tesla and Vietnam’s VinFast.
But then again, most cars bought by Canadians currently aren’t even made in Canada, argues Electric Mobility Canada President and CEO Daniel Breton.
He also says zero-emission vehicle makers abroad have historically prioritized shipping to markets that set aggressive minimum EV sales, so Tuesday’s announcement should help bring in more vehicles to Canada.
Where things could get hairy is if more countries bring in similar mandates and the world’s automakers have to scramble to fulfill a huge amount of orders in multiple countries in a relatively short amount of time.
Even with the current government rebates in place, gas-powered vehicles are indeed cheaper than EVs by an average of $14,000 each, according to Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association President Brian Kingston.
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said he believes that will change by early in the next decade as production increases, more car manufacturers get involved and the technology evolves and improves. But only time will tell.
What about electricity? Will we have enough of it — and specifically, renewable-powered electricity, as required by the federal government — to charge all these vehicles?
The federal government’s acknowledges in Budget 2023 that growing needs for electricity, namely from zero-emission vehicles and transitioning towards low-carbon emission energy projects, will require the country to “supercharge” its electricity production by 2050.
Because the government has set a 2035 deadline to achieve a net-zero electricity system, multiple studies have found that Canada will have to double or triple its generation capacity by 2050. Even proponents of these mandates see this as the biggest challenge Canada will face. A report last year from the Canadian Climate Institute warned that “significant policy gaps still remain” and governments will have to be ready to “mitigate” rising prices.
It’s not just the capacity that matters. Researchers are worried about new peaks in the electrical system as Canadians all plug their cars in to charge at the same time. FortisAlberta has even offered customers who own an EV a $250 rebate to allow the company to study their car’s charging data.
“If you have a million electric cars and they all start charging at the same time, it will create a lot of problems for the network and perhaps cause a blackout,” said Claude El-Bayeh, a Concordia researcher in a paper that studied charging infrastructure.
Not at the rate we’re building them, according to a 2022 study commissioned by Natural Resources Canada, which found that there will need to be at least 442,000 public charging ports by 2035 to sustain the government’s goals. That’s on top of home charging access or shared private ports in multi-unit dwellings.
“We see a need for a significant acceleration in charging infrastructure deployment over the next five to ten years in order to support the federal government’s target of achieving 100 percent EV market share of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035,” the authors wrote.
That concern was shared by Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association president Brian Kingston on Dec. 17, who called on the government to invest more in charging infrastructure instead of compelling Canadians to buy a specific type of vehicle.
But Breton says that charging technology is improving at a rapid rate and that batteries that took over one hour to charge years ago can now be almost fully replenished in 30 minutes. When combined with expanding battery ranges, the need for constant charging will drop, he predicts.
What is the Opposition saying?
If Liberal poll numbers stay low, it may all be academic anyway. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre didn’t directly say he would repeal the mandate, but he did say that the government’s ban on gas cars by 2035 is “extreme and radical” and amounted to a “car tax.”
“There’s a very serious risk that this will mean massive new costs for consumers,” said Poilievre, in an interview this week with the Toronto Sun’s Brian Lilley.
Poilievre said his preference is for “incentives and smart, light-touch regulations” that encourage energy efficiency in “each automobile that comes off the assembly line.”
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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.
The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.
Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.
The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.
Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”
“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.
“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”
Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.
The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.
It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.
Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.
It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.
“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.
Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.
The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.
Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.
The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.
“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.
Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.
“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.
“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”
Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.
On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.
That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.
Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”
“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.
“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”
French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.
“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.
“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:T)
CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.
It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.
The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.
Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.
TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.
The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.
On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.
“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.
“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”
Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.
BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.
The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.
BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.
It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.
The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”
Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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