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Gulf Feud Upends Oil and Regional Politics – Bloomberg

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In a region where rulers refer to each other as “brothers,” it’s perhaps not surprising that disagreements can tip into acrimonious disputes.

But when the standoff rattles world oil markets, like the one now between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at OPEC+, it takes on a whole new dimension.

The heart of the problem is the UAE’s opposition to a Saudi-led production deal that would extend quota limits. Abu Dhabi wants to re-negotiate the level from which its output is calculated so it can pump more crude. It has spent heavily on boosting capacity and strengthening ties with energy-hungry Asian markets.

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How the issue plays out at OPEC+ is significant for energy supplies as major economies emerge from Covid-19 lockdowns. But the effects of the UAE-Saudi divergence also has political repercussions from Yemen to Israel, Iran to Qatar and even Turkey. Global firms too may be pushed into taking sides.

The dynamic between Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and his Saudi counterpart, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been central to Middle East events in recent years.

Together they intervened in Yemen, the scene of the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, but the UAE’s withdrawal in 2019 left a Saudi-led coalition to battle it out with Iran-backed fighters that have targeted the kingdom.

Abu Dhabi increasingly has asserted an independent foreign policy and focused on forging ties with old foes like Israel and on economic recovery at home. Saudi Arabia took aim at Dubai as the Middle East’s business and tourism capital with an ultimatum for international companies to move their regional headquarters to Riyadh.

As they brace for a post-oil economy, their competition is only expected to grow. Sylvia Westall

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Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left, and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.
Source: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Click here to follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

Global Headlines

Growing danger | Japan and the U.S. would have to defend Taiwan together in the event of a major problem, Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said in some of the highest-level remarks from Tokyo on the subject. Aso said a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be seen as an existential threat, allowing Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense.

Jail time | A Hong Kong court sentenced a U.S. lawyer to prison for a scuffle with a plainclothes police officer at the height of pro-democracy protests in 2019. Samuel Bickett, a former executive at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, was given a term of four months and two weeks. Bickett said the cop was attacking people with a baton in a subway station when he stepped in.

  • Police in Hong Kong arrested nine people on suspicion of planning bomb attacks, fueling fears of potential violence as Beijing cracks down on political freedoms.

Fresh concerns | Businesses have pushed the government to finally reopen the U.K. economy but, now that social distancing will be all but dropped, they have a new set of worries. As Alex Morales and Emily Ashton report, while industry groups largely welcomed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to ease Covid restrictions on July 19, it also raises questions around liability over infections in the workplace.

  • Pfizer’s vaccine protected 64% of people against Covid in Israel between June 6 and early July, down from a previous 94%, according to government data.

Fewer Hands Make Heavier Work

China’s shrinking population will drag on growth

Source: NBS, United Nations World Population Prospects (2019), Bloomberg Economics

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If China delivers on growth-boosting reforms and U.S. President Joe Biden is unable to push through his proposals for renewing infrastructure and expanding the workforce, Bloomberg Economics forecasts suggest China could become the world’s biggest economy as soon as 2031. But that outcome is far from guaranteed, with demographics a key factor.

Question marks | Kuvimba Mining House, which the Zimbabwean government says it controls, said it bought its assets from a company linked to a tycoon sanctioned by the U.S., giving the first details on how the state firm was formed. Kuvimba’s origins and financial structure have been shrouded in controversy, with the government saying its revenue would play a key role in revitalizing the economy.

  • Read our exclusive from May on the murky links between sanctioned businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei, an adviser to President Emmerson Mnangagwa, and Kuvimba.

Fertile flashpoint | A disputed border region in the Horn of Africa has the potential to kindle an agricultural boom and an economic revival for Sudan — or spark the continent’s next war. As Simon Marks and Mohammed Alamin report, al-Fashqa’s fertile plains risk becoming a powder keg in a feud between two countries already at odds over Ethiopia’s decision to resume filling its giant Nile dam.

  • Egypt and Sudan condemned Ethiopia’s move to start the second phase of filling the reservoir, warning it violates existing agreements and threatens security in the region.

What to Watch

  • Chinese regulators asked Didi as early as three months ago to delay its U.S. IPO because of national security concerns involving its huge trove of data, sources say.
  • Tens of thousands of families are fleeing the Taliban’s rapid advance into Afghanistan’s northern region, part of a refugee crisis brewing as the U.S speeds up its troop withdrawal.
  • The leaders of Germany and France pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping in a video summit to allow more flights from Europe as they sought to repair ties with Beijing.
  • The former head of a Kremlin-controlled bank who sought to challenge Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko in last year’s elections was jailed for 14 years.
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity fell to the lowest level yet after an ally said he turned a blind eye to an alleged kickback scheme in the purchase of virus vaccines.

And finally … As drug companies ride a wave of support for their Covid-19 vaccinations following years of criticism over high prices, they face a tricky question: How much should they charge governments desperate to protect their populations from a disease that has killed about 4 million people, crippled economies, and created turmoil across the globe? The answer, in many cases, is plenty. Covid vaccines are emerging as a $100 billion-plus business in 2021, James Paton and John Lauerman explain.

#lazy-img-372973038:beforepadding-top:66.64999999999999%;KENYA-HEALTH-VIRUS-VACCINE
A medical worker prepares Oxford/AstraZeneca shots for door-to-door delivery to people living far from health facilities in Siaya, Kenya.
Photographer: Brian Ongoro/AFP/Getty Images

 

 

— With assistance by Ruth Pollard, and Gordon Bell

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    Iran news: Canada, G7 urge de-escalation after Israel strike – CTV News

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    Canada called for “all parties” to de-escalate rising tensions in the Mideast following an apparent Israeli drone attack against Iran overnight.

    G7 foreign ministers, including Canada’s, and the High Representative for the European Union released a public statement Friday morning. The statement condemned Iran’s “direct and unprecedented attack” on April 13, which saw Western allies intercept more than 100 bomb-carrying drones headed towards Israel, the G7 countries said.

    Prior to the Iranian attack, a previous airstrike, widely blamed on Israel, destroyed Iran’s consulate in Syria, killing 12 people including two elite Iranian generals.

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    “I join my G7 colleagues in urging all parties to work to prevent further escalation,” wrote Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly in a post on X Friday.

    More details to come.

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    Politics Briefing: Labour leader targets Poilievre, calls him 'anti-worker politician' – The Globe and Mail

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    Hello,

    Pierre Poilievre is a fraud when it comes to empowering workers, says the president of Canada’s largest labour organization.

    Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, targeted the federal Conservative Leader in a speech in Ottawa today as members of the labour movement met to develop a strategic approach to the next federal election, scheduled for October, 2025.

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    “Whatever he claims today, Mr. Poilievre has a consistent 20-year record as an anti-worker politician,” said Bruske, whose congress represents more than three million workers.

    She rhetorically asked whether the former federal cabinet minister has ever walked a picket line, or supported laws to strengthen workers’ voices.

    “Mr. Poilievre sure is fighting hard to get himself power, but he’s never fought for worker power,” she said.

    “We must do everything in our power to expose Pierre Poilievre as the fraud that he is.”

    The Conservative Leader, whose party is running ahead of its rivals in public-opinion polls, has declared himself a champion of “the common people,” and been courting the working class as he works to build support.

    Mr. Poilievre’s office today pushed back on the arguments against him.

    Sebastian Skamski, media-operations director, said Mr. Poilievre, unlike other federal leaders, is connecting with workers.

    In a statement, Skamski said NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has sold out working Canadians by co-operating with the federal Liberal government, whose policies have created challenges for Canadian workers with punishing taxes and inflation.

    “Pierre Poilievre is the one listening and speaking to workers on shop floors and in union halls from coast to coast to coast,” said Mr. Skamski.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mr. Singh are scheduled to speak to the gathering today. Mr. Poilievre was not invited to speak.

    Asked during a post-speech news conference about the Conservative Leader’s absence, Bruske said the gathering is focused on worker issues, and Poilievre’s record as an MP and in government shows he has voted against rights, benefits and wage increases for workers.

    “We want to make inroads with politicians that will consistently stand up for workers, and consistently engage with us,” she said.

    This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

    TODAY’S HEADLINES

    Pierre Poilievre’s top adviser not yet contacted in Lobbying Commissioner probe: The federal Lobbying Commissioner has yet to be in touch with Jenni Byrne as the watchdog probes allegations of inappropriate lobbying by staff working both in Byrne’s firm and a second one operating out of her office.

    Métis groups will trudge on toward self-government as bill faces another setback: Métis organizations in Ontario and Alberta say they’ll stay on the path toward self-government, despite the uncertain future of a contentious bill meant to do just that.

    Liberals buck global trend in ‘doubling down’ on foreign aid, as sector urges G7 push: The federal government pledged in its budget this week to increase humanitarian aid by $150-million in the current fiscal year and $200-million the following year.

    Former B.C. finance minister running for the federal Conservatives: Mike de Jong says he will look to represent the Conservatives in Abbotsford-South Langley, which is being created out of part of the Abbotsford riding now held by departing Tory MP Ed Fast.

    Ottawa’s new EV tax credit raises hope of big new Honda investment: The proposed measure would provide companies with a 10-per-cent rebate on the costs of constructing new buildings to be used in the electric-vehicle supply chain. Story here.

    Sophie Grégoire Trudeau embraces uncertainty in new memoir, Closer Together: “I’m a continuous, curious, emotional adventurer and explorer of life and relationships,” Grégoire Trudeau told The Globe and Mail during a recent interview. “I’ve always been curious and interested and fascinated by human contact.”

    TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES

    “Sometimes you’re in a situation. You just can’t win. You say one thing. You get one community upset. You say another. You get another community upset.” – Ontario Premier Doug Ford, at a news conference in Oakville today, commenting on the Ontario legislature Speaker banning the wearing in the House of the traditional keffiyeh scarf. Ford opposes the ban, but it was upheld after the news conference in the provincial legislature.

    “No, I plan to be a candidate in the next election under Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership. I’m very happy. I’m excited about that. I’m focused on the responsibilities he gave me. It’s a big job. I’m enjoying it and I’m optimistic that our team and the Prime Minister will make the case to Canadians as to why we should be re-elected.” – Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, before Question Period today, on whether he is interested in the federal Liberal leadership, and succeeding Justin Trudeau as prime minister.

    THIS AND THAT

    Today in the Commons: Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, April. 18, accessible here.

    Deputy Prime Minister’s Day: Private meetings in Burlington, Ont., then Chrystia Freeland toured a manufacturing facility, discussed the federal budget and took media questions. Freeland then travelled to Washington, D.C., for spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. Freeland also attended a meeting of the Five Eyes Finance Ministers hosted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and held a Canada-Ukraine working dinner on mobilizing Russian assets in support of Ukraine.

    Ministers on the Road: Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is on the Italian island of Capri for the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting. Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge, in the Quebec town of Farnham, made an economic announcement, then held a brief discussion with agricultural workers and took media questions. Privy Council President Harjit Sajjan made a federal budget announcement in the Ontario city of Welland. Families Minister Jenna Sudds made an economic announcement in the Ontario city of Belleville.

    Commons Committee Highlights: Treasury Board President Anita Anand appeared before the public-accounts committee on the auditor-general’s report on the ArriveCan app, and Karen Hogan, Auditor-General of Canada, later appeared on government spending. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Gary Anandasangaree appears before the status-of-women committee on the Red Dress Alert. Competition Bureau Commissioner Matthew Boswell and Yves Giroux, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, appeared before the finance committee on Bill C-59. Former Prince Edward Island premier Robert Ghiz, now the president and chief executive officer of the Canadian Telecommunications Association, is among the witnesses appearing before the human-resources committee on Bill C-58, An act to amend the Canada Labour Code. Caroline Maynard, Canada’s Information Commissioner, appears before the access-to-information committee on government spending. Michel Patenaude, chief inspector at the Sûreté du Québec, appeared before the public-safety committee on car thefts in Canada.

    In Ottawa: Governor-General Mary Simon presented the Governor-General’s Literary Awards during a ceremony at Rideau Hall, and, in the evening, was scheduled to speak at the 2024 Indspire Awards to honour Indigenous professionals and youth.

    PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

    Justin Trudeau met with Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe at city hall. Sutcliffe later said it was the first time a sitting prime minister has visited city hall for a meeting with the mayor. Later, Trudeau delivered remarks to a Canada council meeting of the Canadian Labour Congress.

    LEADERS

    Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet held a media scrum at the House of Commons ahead of Question Period.

    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre attends a party fundraising event at a private residence in Mississauga.

    Green Party Leader Elizabeth May attended the House of Commons.

    NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Ottawa, met with Saskatchewan’s NDP Leader, Carla Beck, and, later, Ken Price, the chief of the K’ómoks First Nation,. In the afternoon, he delivered a speech to a Canadian Labour Congress Canadian council meeting.

    THE DECIBEL

    On today’s edition of The Globe and Mail podcast, Sanjay Ruparelia, an associate professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and Jarislowsky Democracy Chair, explains why India’s elections matter for democracy – and the balance of power for the rest of the world. The Decibel is here.

    PUBLIC OPINION

    Declining trust in federal and provincial governments: A new survey finds a growing proportion of Canadians do not trust the federal or provincial governments to make decisions on health care, climate change, the economy and immigration.

    OPINION

    On Haida Gwaii, an island of change for Indigenous land talks

    “For more than a century, the Haida Nation has disputed the Crown’s dominion over the land, air and waters of Haida Gwaii, a lush archipelago roughly 150 kilometres off the coast of British Columbia. More than 20 years ago, the First Nation went to the Supreme Court of Canada with a lawsuit that says the islands belong to the Haida, part of a wider legal and political effort to resolve scores of land claims in the province. That case has been grinding toward a conclusion that the B.C. government was increasingly convinced would end in a Haida victory.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board.

    The RCMP raid the home of ArriveCan contractor as Parliament scolds

    “The last time someone was called before the bar of the House of Commons to answer MPs’ inquiries, it was to demand that a man named R.C. Miller explain how his company got government contracts to supply lights, burners and bristle brushes for lighthouses. That was 1913. On Wednesday, Kristian Firth, the managing partner of GCStrategies, one of the key contractors on the federal government’s ArriveCan app, was called to answer MPs’ queries. Inside the Commons, it felt like something from another century.” – Campbell Clark

    First Nations peoples have lost confidence in Thunder Bay’s police force

    “Thunder Bay has become ground zero for human-rights violations against Indigenous Peoples in Canada. Too many sudden and suspicious deaths of Indigenous Peoples have not been investigated properly. There have been too many reports on what is wrong with policing in the city – including ones by former chair of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Murray Sinclair and former Toronto Police board chair Alok Mukherjee, and another one called “Broken Trust,” in which the Office of the Independent Police Review Director said the Thunder Bay Police Service (TBPS) was guilty of “systemic racism” in 2018. – Tanya Talaga.

    The failure of Canada’s health care system is a disgrace – and a deadly one

    “What can be said about Canada’s health care system that hasn’t been said countless times over, as we watch more and more people suffer and die as they wait for baseline standards of care? Despite our delusions, we don’t have “world-class” health care, as our Prime Minister has said; we don’t even have universal health care. What we have is health care if you’re lucky, or well connected, or if you happen to have a heart attack on a day when your closest ER is merely overcapacity as usual, and not stuffed to the point of incapacitation.” – Robyn Urback.

    Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop.

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    GOP strategist reacts to Trump’s ‘unconventional’ request – CNN

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    GOP strategist reacts to Trump’s ‘unconventional’ request

    Donald Trump’s campaign is asking Republican candidates and committees using the former president’s name and likeness to fundraise to give at least 5% of what they raise to the campaign, according to a letter obtained by CNN. CNN’s Steve Contorno and Republican strategist Rina Shah weigh in.


    03:00

    – Source:
    CNN

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