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Hamas Attack Brings Middle East War Premium Back To Oil Markets

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War premium returned to the oil market on Monday after the weekend attack by Hamas on Israel, which upended—again—the geopolitical landscape in the world’s most important oil-exporting region, the Middle East, and buried hopes of an imminent Saudi-Israel rapprochement that could ease the tight oil market.

The Hamas attack on Saturday took place just as several Middle Eastern countries, including the large oil producer the United Arab Emirates (UAE), had started to normalize relations with Israel. The U.S. Administration was also reportedly working on a Saudi-Israel normalization in relations.

On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, could be willing to raise early next year its oil production— currently at around 9 million barrels per day (bpd) due to a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd—if oil prices are too high, to win goodwill at U.S. Congress. A possible agreement would have led to Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel in exchange for a defense deal with the United States.

On Saturday and the following days, it became clear that a deal could be dead in the water and that the geopolitical risks to oil prices were once again focused on the Middle East.

The Hamas attack breached the relative calmness in the region which has seen Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations and the UAE and Iran improving relations in what analysts believed to be a sign of de-escalation of the tensions in the region.

After the attacks, Israel declared war on Hamas and began to retaliate for the Saturday incursions of Hamas fighters on its territory.

Analysts will be closely watching if Israel publicly blames Iran for direct or indirect involvement in the attacks, and if the conflict will spread from Israel and the Gaza Strip to the wider Middle Eastern region.

“This is no less than Israel’s 9/11,” Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, said on Saturday.

What would happen next could include “War in the region (which could expand), massive civilian casualties, and the Israeli-Saudi deal (which was close to getting done) is now over,” Bremmer added.

In the wake of the Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia called for “an immediate halt to the escalation between the two sides, the protection of civilians, and restraint.” But it also “recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continuation of the occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.”

The situation could be contained, but all eyes would be now on Iran, analysts say.

“So far there is no sign that Iran and Hezbollah plan to join. As long as this is the case the global impact is limited,” Zvi Eckstein, former deputy governor at the Bank of Israel and currently emeritus professor of economics at Tel Aviv University, told CNBC.

Oil supply from Iran, which has been rising in recent months due to weaker enforcement of the U.S. sanctions, could begin to shrink again, analysts say.

According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, “The softer approach from the US is likely due to concern over rising energy prices. However, it would be difficult to see the US maintaining this stance if Iran is connected to these attacks, whether directly or indirectly.”

If the enforcement of these sanctions becomes stricter, it could lead to a potential loss of at least 500,000 bpd of oil supply, which would wipe out the currently anticipated surplus for 2024, according to ING.

The Hamas attack “could eventually have an impact on supply and prices,” popular hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said.

“The market will eventually have to beg for more Saudi supply, which I believe, will not happen sub $110 Brent,” he added.

“As Iran is also behind Hamas’ attacks on Israel, there is a good probability that the US administration will start enforcing those sanctions on Iranian oil exports more tightly. That would further tighten the oil market,” Andurand wrote on X on Saturday.

“Also the probability that this will lead to direct conflict with Iran is not zero.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Stop Asking Your Interviewer Cliché Questions

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Most job search advice is cookie-cutter. The advice you’re following is almost certainly the same advice other job seekers follow, making you just another candidate following the same script.

In today’s hyper-competitive job market, standing out is critical, a challenge most job seekers struggle with. Instead of relying on generic questions recommended by self-proclaimed career coaches, which often lead to a forgettable interview, ask unique, thought-provoking questions that’ll spark engaging conversations and leave a lasting impression.

English philosopher Francis Bacon once said, “A prudent question is one half of wisdom.”

The questions you ask convey the following:

  • Your level of interest in the company and the role.
  • Contributing to your employer’s success is essential.
  • You desire a cultural fit.

Here are the top four questions experts recommend candidates ask; hence, they’ve become cliché questions you should avoid asking:

  • “What are the key responsibilities of this position?”

Most likely, the job description answers this question. Therefore, asking this question indicates you didn’t read the job description. If you require clarification, ask, “How many outbound calls will I be required to make daily?” “What will be my monthly revenue target?”

  • “What does a typical day look like?”

Although it’s important to understand day-to-day expectations, this question tends to elicit vague responses and rarely leads to a deeper conversation. Don’t focus on what your day will look like; instead, focus on being clear on the results you need to deliver. Nobody I know has ever been fired for not following a “typical day.” However, I know several people who were fired for failing to meet expectations. Before accepting a job offer, ensure you’re capable of meeting the employer’s expectations.

  • “How would you describe the company culture?”

Asking this question screams, “I read somewhere to ask this question.” There are much better ways to research a company’s culture, such as speaking to current and former employees, reading online reviews and news articles. Furthermore, since your interviewer works for the company, they’re presumably comfortable with the culture. Do you expect your interviewer to give you the brutal truth? “Be careful of Craig; get on his bad side, and he’ll make your life miserable.” “Bob is close to retirement. I give him lots of slack, which the rest of the team needs to pick up.”

Truism: No matter how much due diligence you do, only when you start working for the employer will you experience and, therefore, know their culture firsthand.

  • “What opportunities are there for professional development?”

When asked this question, I immediately think the candidate cares more about gaining than contributing, a showstopper. Managing your career is your responsibility, not your employer’s.

Cliché questions don’t impress hiring managers, nor will they differentiate you from your competition. To transform your interaction with your interviewer from a Q&A session into a dynamic discussion, ask unique, insightful questions.

Here are my four go-to questions—I have many moreto accomplish this:

  • “Describe your management style. How will you manage me?”

This question gives your interviewer the opportunity to talk about themselves, which we all love doing. As well, being in sync with my boss is extremely important to me. The management style of who’ll be my boss is a determining factor in whether or not I’ll accept the job.

  • “What is the one thing I should never do that’ll piss you off and possibly damage our working relationship beyond repair?”

This question also allows me to determine whether I and my to-be boss would be in sync. Sometimes I ask, “What are your pet peeves?”

  • “When I join the team, what would be the most important contribution you’d want to see from me in the first six months?”

Setting myself up for failure is the last thing I want. As I mentioned, focus on the results you need to produce and timelines. How realistic are the expectations? It’s never about the question; it’s about what you want to know. It’s important to know whether you’ll be able to meet or even exceed your new boss’s expectations.

  • “If I wanted to sell you on an idea or suggestion, what do you need to know?”

Years ago, a candidate asked me this question. I was impressed he wasn’t looking just to put in time; he was looking for how he could be a contributing employee. Every time I ask this question, it leads to an in-depth discussion.

Other questions I’ve asked:

 

  • “What keeps you up at night?”
  • “If you were to leave this company, who would follow?”
  • “How do you handle an employee making a mistake?”
  • “If you were to give a Ted Talk, what topic would you talk about?”
  • “What are three highly valued skills at [company] that I should master to advance?”
  • “What are the informal expectations of the role?”
  • “What is one misconception people have about you [or the company]?”

 

Your questions reveal a great deal about your motivations, drive to make a meaningful impact on the business, and a chance to morph the questioning into a conversation. Cliché questions don’t lead to meaningful discussions, whereas unique, thought-provoking questions do and, in turn, make you memorable.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Canadian Natural Resources reports $2.27-billion third-quarter profit

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CALGARY – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported a third-quarter profit of $2.27 billion, down from $2.34 billion in the same quarter last year.

The company says the profit amounted to $1.06 per diluted share for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared with $1.06 per diluted share a year earlier.

Product sales totalled $10.40 billion, down from $11.76 billion in the same quarter last year.

Daily production for the quarter averaged 1,363,086 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 1,393,614 a year ago.

On an adjusted basis, Canadian Natural says it earned 97 cents per diluted share for the quarter, down from an adjusted profit of $1.30 per diluted share in the same quarter last year.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 90 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CNQ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Cenovus Energy reports $820M Q3 profit, down from $1.86B a year ago

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CALGARY – Cenovus Energy Inc. reported its third-quarter profit fell compared with a year as its revenue edged lower.

The company says it earned $820 million or 42 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down from $1.86 billion or 97 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $14.25 billion, down from $14.58 billion in the same quarter last year.

Total upstream production in the quarter amounted to 771,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 797,000 a year earlier.

Total downstream throughput was 642,900 barrels per day compared with 664,300 in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Cenovus says its funds flow amounted to $1.05 per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from adjusted funds flow of $1.81 per diluted share a year earlier.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CVE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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