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The world is on a path to get 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 Fahrenheit) warmer than it is now, but could trim half a degree of that projected future heating if countries do everything they promise to fight climate change, a United Nations report said Thursday.

But it still won’t be near enough to curb warming’s worst impacts such as nastier heat waves, wildfires, storms and droughts, the report said.

Under every scenario but the “most optimistic” with the biggest cuts in fossil fuels burning, the chance of curbing warming so it stays within the internationally agreed-upon limit “would be virtually zero,” the United Nations Environment Programme’s annual Emissions Gap Report said. The goal, set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is to limit human-caused warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. The report said that since the mid-1800s, the world has already heated up by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), up from previous estimates of 1.1 or 1.2 degrees because it includes the record heat last year.

Instead the world is on pace to hit 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. But if nations somehow do all of what they promised in targets they submitted to the United Nations that warming could be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the report said.

In that super-stringent cuts scenario where nations have zero net carbon emissions after mid-century, there’s a 23% chance of keeping warming at or below the 1.5 degrees goal. It’s far more likely that even that optimistic scenario will keep warming to 1.9 degrees above pre-industrial times, the report said.

“The main message is that action right now and right here before 2030 is critical if we want to lower the temperature,” said report main editor Anne Olhoff, an economist and chief climate advisor to the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre. “It is now or never really if we want to keep 1.5 alive.”

Without swift and dramatic emission cuts “on a scale and pace never seen before,” UNEP Director Inger Andersen said “the 1.5 degree C goal will soon be dead and (the less stringent Paris goal of) well below 2 degrees C will take its place in the intensive care unit.”

Olhoff said Earth’s on a trajectory to slam the door on 1.5 sometime in 2029.

“Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change,” said author Neil Grant of Climate Analytics. “And so I think we are at risk of a lost decade.”

One of the problems is that even though nations pledged climate action in their targets submitted as part of the Paris Agreement, there’s a big gap between what they said they will do and what they are doing based on their existing policies, report authors said.

The world’s 20 richest countries — which are responsible for 77% of the carbon pollution in the air — are falling short of their stated emission-cutting goals, with only 11 meeting their individual targets, the report said.

Emission cuts strong enough to limit warming to the 1.5 degree goal are more than technically and economically possible, the report found. They just aren’t being proposed or done.

The report ”shows that yet again governments are sleepwalking towards climate chaos,” said climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, who wasn’t part of the report.

Another outside scientist, Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said the report confirms his worst concerns: “We are not making progress and are now following a 3.1 degree path, which is, with next to zero uncertainty, a path to disaster.”

Both the 3.1 degree and 2.6 degree calculations are a tenth of a degree Celsius warmer than last year’s version of the UN report, which experts said is within the margin of uncertainty.

Mostly the problem is “there’s one year less time to cut emissions and avoid climate catastrophe,” said MIT’s John Sterman, who models different warming scenarios based on emissions and countries policies. “Catastrophe is a strong word and I don’t use it lightly,” he said, citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report saying 3 degrees of warming would trigger severe and irreversible damage.

The report focuses on what’s called an emissions gap. It calculates a budget of how many billions of tons of greenhouse gases — mostly carbon dioxide and methane — the world can spew and stay under 1.5 degrees, 1.8 degrees and 2 degrees of warming since pre-industrial times. It then figures how much annual emissions have to be slashed by 2030 to keep at those levels.

To keep at or below 1.5 degrees, the world must slash emissions by 42%, and to keep at or below 2 degrees, the cut has to be 28%, the report, named, “No more hot air… please !” said.

In 2023, the world spewed 57.1 billion metric tons (62.9 billion U.S. tons) of greenhouse gases, the report said. That’s 1,810 metric tons (1,995 U.S. tons) of heat-trapping gases a second.

“There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a video messaged released with the report. “We’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time.”

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Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

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Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

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TORONTO – Rogers Communications Inc. reported a third-quarter profit of $526 million compared with a loss a year ago.

The company says the profit amounted to 98 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30.

The result compared with a loss of $99 million or 20 cents per diluted share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $5.13 billion, up from $5.09 billion a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, Rogers says it earned $1.42 per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of $1.27 per diluted share a year ago.

Analysts on average had expected a profit of $1.36 per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:RCI.B)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

MONTREAL – Before she owned one, Sarah Evans had no experience in hair-removal clinics — other than the personal kind.

She began searching for a new spot for treatments after moving to Toronto from the U.K. in 2013 and found a suitable service.

“It wasn’t terrible, but there were some things where it was a little bit dodgy and suspect,” said Evans, whose professional background lies in optometry and journalism. “They were using soft wax, which isn’t the most comfortable experience.”

Then she spotted Waxon, a hair removal service just starting to franchise.

“It looks very clean, it looks very inviting … so the next time I needed a wax, I went in. And that was kind of the beginning of the story.”

Fast-forward a decade, and Evans runs three Waxon locations in the Greater Toronto Area, part of a franchised brand with 18 locations and eight more slated to open before 2026.

“It’s like being on a roller-coaster … the wheels just started turning,” Evans said. “I always had this bug in me to own my own business.”

Many Canadians feel likewise. More than 40,000 franchisees run operations that employ two million people across 600-plus brands in sectors ranging from painting to event planning, home health care, construction and — of course — food retail, according to the Canadian Franchise Association.

Compared with launching a new enterprise, opening a franchise typically comes with head office support, brand recognition and lower financial risk, as well as a connection with the local community and colleagues. But it can also mean tight corporate restrictions, heavy workloads and a big up-front investment — among other challenges of small business ownership, from rising costs to rude customers.

Head office assistance — from site renovation to software, signage equipment and furniture — is among the selling points for those considering a move into the world of franchising.

“It’s turnkey. They provide you with a fully operational bakery that’s open and running,” said Tait Mitchell, who launched a Cobs Bread bakery in Barrie, Ont., with his wife Lisa in 2021.

Franchisees receive 16 weeks of training — much of it spent baking at another location — as well as recipes and menus. All food items are ordered through Cobs distributors.

In the case of College Pro window cleaners, franchisees often draw on an existing client list that they then build out, relying on corporate staff to handle payroll and taxes.

Ambrose Obe trained part-time for two months before jumping into the business he took over in Winnipeg after coming to Canada from Nigeria last year to study management.

“This was going to be an opportunity for me to learn how businesses work here in Canada and to get some business experience,” said Obe, who ran a trucking outfit in his home country.

A closer bond with the surrounding community can also be a surprising bonus for some new franchisees.

“We have people that come in once, twice, sometimes three times a week … they know my front staff, and my front staff knows their order as soon as they walk in the door,” said Lisa Mitchell of Cobs. “That means a lot.”

Though familiarity with spreadsheets and balance sheets is a plus, franchising is open to people from all walks of life, said Waxon founder Lexi Miles Corrin.

“We have widows, we have women who are just coming out of mat leave, corporate jobs, lawyers … they really wanted to do their own thing and be their own boss but were maybe too scared to make the leap alone,” she said, adding that some franchises can feel like a “boys’ club.”

Even with that hand-holding — or because of it — the financial side of franchising can be tough to swallow.

Opening a location often costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, on top of royalties that typically hover between five and 10 per cent of sales as well as fees for marketing and advertising.

At Waxon, the investment is between $500,000 and $600,000, with $150,000 in liquid capital up front, Miles Corrin said. There’s also a one-time $50,000 “franchise fee,” plus a six per cent royalty on sales and 1.5 per cent for marketing.

Tim Hortons, which has about 3,500 restaurants across the country, requires at least $100,000 in cash up front and minimum net worth of $500,000 — the investment may be up to four times that amount, however. Operators must also kick between 4.5 to six per cent of sales upstairs and another four per cent for advertising and marketing.

Franchises are not insulated from the hurdles that confront many small businesses these days, from employee retention to inflation to abrasive clientele.

“One of the greatest challenges is finding good workers,” said Tait of Cobs.

Costs for some items have also soared.

“Cocoa went up by about 75 per cent,” he said. “The war in Ukraine caused canola and oil issues.”

Many owners may also learn the hard way that not all Canadians live up to the nation’s reputation for niceness.

“Sometimes somebody will not even listen to you at the door, just tell you, ‘Go away.’ I was like, wow, so rude,” said Obe, recalling his porch pitches.

Meanwhile, the corporate structure and guidance that some see as a life-jacket will be felt by others as a straitjacket.

“Our franchisees can’t go out and design their own wonderful glitter ad and take our brand mark and make it pink,” said David Druker, CEO of the UPS Store Canada and past chairman of the Canadian Franchise Association board of directors.

“If you’re a lone wolf personality, if you don’t like taking advice from others, if you don’t like the concept of team, then chances are franchising is not for you.”

While small franchises can offer more leeway and closer relationships with executives, larger companies tend to have stricter rules and impersonal ties to head office.

Either way, hard work is part of the package, along with ground-floor involvement in the business.

“Food service is Monday to Sunday, every day of the week, early morning to late nights, weekend nights when your family’s celebrating and you can’t because somebody called in sick,” said Domenic Primucci, president of Pizza Nova.

Franchisors and franchisees alike recommend speaking with others in the business and thinking it through before jumping in.

“Be truly prepared for the amount of effort that you have to invest in it,” said Lisa Mitchell.

“It’s a marathon.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.