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Hawkish Bank of Canada Speech Puts Half-Point Rate Hike in Play – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Canada’s 10-year yield rose to the highest since 2018 as a top Bank of Canada official said household finances are in good shape and that monetary policymakers are prepared to “act forcefully” to quell inflation.

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Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki reiterated the central bank’s “unwavering commitment” to wrestle inflation back to the 2% target and said more aggressive action — including shrinking holdings of government bonds, known as quantitative tightening — will be discussed. She acknowledged that while rising borrowing costs impact Canadians differently, higher price pressures are “especially painful” for low income individuals.

“I expect the pace and magnitude of interest rate increases and the start of QT to be active parts of our deliberations at our next decision in April,” Kozicki said Friday. She also warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine is driving inflation higher than expected in the bank’s most recent quarterly forecasts.

Her remarks, delivered by video conference to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, come three weeks after the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%, from the emergency low of 0.25% set after Covid-19 hit North America.

Before the speech, markets were pricing in at least nine more 25-basis-point hikes over the next year. Traders ramped up those bets, with her comments boosting expectations for a bigger move next month.

“This is a clear nod to the chance of a 50-basis-point hike at the April meeting,” Benjamin Reitzes, macro strategist at Bank of Montreal, said by email. “The door is wide open.”

The comments helped strengthen the Canadian dollar, which rose above C$1.25 per U.S. dollar for the first time since January, to C$1.2481 as of 2:15 p.m. Ottawa time.

They also accelerated the bond sell-off: the benchmark Canada 10-year yield rose as high as 2.536%, up about 14 basis points.

Canada’s yield surge mirrored moves in the Treasury market, where traders are pricing in even more hikes for the Federal Reserve, with several policymakers at the U.S. central bank saying a 50-point hike is on the table.

Kozicki’s speech shows the Bank of Canada is prepared to act swiftly and strongly to quell inflationary pressures, which hit a three-decade high of 5.7% in January from a year earlier. She also mentioned the bank’s concerns about inflation expectations drifting upward given the persistently high price gains.

Her remarks emphasized that differences in households’ wealth, debt and incomes can amplify economic shocks and impact decisions about fiscal and monetary responses. Still, Kozicki said that while debt risks persist, the bank judges that “households on average appear to be in better financial shape now than at the start of our 2017–18 tightening cycle.”

While Kozicki said high levels of indebtedness remain an important domestic vulnerability, a strong labor market and substantial savings accumulated during the pandemic have cushioned Canadian household balance sheets.

(Updates throughout with market, analyst reaction.)

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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