Canada’s top doctors say they’re striving for a best-case scenario but preparing for the worst: a so-called “fall peak” of COVID-19 cases across the country that threatens to overwhelm the public health-care system.
Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam and deputy public health officer Dr. Howard Njoo presented new modelling on the coronavirus on Friday, flagging a potential surge in cases several times worse than what we’ve seen so far in Canada.
Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) documents show officials are aiming for a “slow burn” scenario, in which the number of cases remains low, so that the public health-care system can deal with the influx of patients. But officials are also planning for a “reasonable worst-case scenario,” where a fall spike in infections is followed by ongoing peaks and valleys, putting excessive demands on the health system.
Tam noted that this fall’s surge will coincide with the flu and cold season, potentially putting added strains on hospitals and other health resources.
She declined to put a figure on what the caseload might look like, but said health authorities should plan for “something that’s at least several times worse than your previous experience.” There is much that’s still not known about COVID-19, including whether it accelerates with seasonality.
WATCH | Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam on potential COVID-19 surge:
Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says her team is striving for a best-case scenario but preparing for the worst: a so-called “fall peak” of COVID-19 cases across the country. 1:06
Tam said what actions Canadians take now will determine how transmissions unfold in the fall.
“Continuing to build up capacity across our health, public health and laboratory systems while urging all Canadians to continue with public health practices will give us the best chance of keeping the epidemic on a slow burn, while preparing us in the event of a need to rapidly ramp up response measures for possible larger resurgence,” Tam said.
The number of new cases reported daily has increased in recent weeks, with the highest rate of infection among people aged 20-39 years old.
As businesses and schools reopen and more people return to the workplace, Tam stressed that Canadians must be vigilant in following public health guidelines to avoid a major rebound.
(CBC News)
Key measures to limiting outbreaks are:
Detecting and isolating cases.
Contact tracing and quarantining.
Physical distancing, handwashing and staying home when possible.
Using exposure notification apps.
Njoo said about 1.9 million people have downloaded Canada’s COVID-19 exposure notification app, and he urged people to take part, especially young people who go to pubs and nightclubs.
Case load expected to climb
In the short term, PHAC says the case load could grow to between 121,650 and 127,740 by Aug. 23, and the number of deaths could climb to between 8,980 to 9,115.
The majority of cases have been reported in Ontario and Quebec, while Nunavut has not recorded a single case.
Health Minister Patty Hajdu’s office says the government knows a second wave of COVID-19 is possible, and is making appropriate preparations.
“That’s why we’ve been carefulin how we’ve started to lift some public health measures, and why we’ve worked with the provinces and territories to establish a supply of PPE and medical supplies to keep Canadians safe,” Hajdu’s spokesperson Cole Davidson said in a statement.
“Deliveries of PPE and medical supplies continue to arrive at PHAC warehouses from both domestic and international suppliers while we work with provinces and territories to prepare for future needs, including the administration of potential vaccines and a possible second wave.”
Today’s modelling information is not intended to predict what will happen, but to provide a snapshot of what could happen in certain scenarios. It projects that the “peaks and valleys” could continue through 2022.
It comes as anxiety increases about potential outbreaks as students return to classrooms in the coming weeks.
British Columbia released its own modelling Thursday, showing the province’s COVID-19 curve is now climbing at a higher rate than the initial outbreak in March, and suggesting a second wave could be bigger than the first by September.
Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry said the province’s contact-tracing efforts could help reduce the number of transmissions.
Canada’s top doctor has said while Canada has been successful at slowing the spread of COVID-19, there could be a resurgence if Canadians don’t strictly follow public health guidelines on physical distancing, hand-washing and limiting mass gatherings.
MONTREAL – Quebec’s ombudsperson is warning that public services are becoming “dehumanized” in the province amid a rise in demand for them.
Marc-André Dowd released his annual report today, which highlights several examples of people receiving inadequate care across the health network in the 12 months leading to March 31.
One dying man who lived alone was denied help cleaning his cat’s litter box by his local health clinic, a service Dowd says should have been given for “humanitarian reasons.”
Dowd also describes staff at a long-term care home feeding residents “mechanically” and talking among each other — despite health ministry guidelines directing staff to maintain eye contact with residents.
The ombudsperson says his office received a record number of problems to investigate across the province’s public services — 24,867 compared with 22,053 last year.
He says his office investigated 13,358 cases between April 2023 and March of this year.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
OTTAWA – French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Canada next week after a planned trip in July was cancelled amid political turmoil in France.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced in a statement today that Macron will be in Canada Wednesday and Thursday after the leaders attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
Trudeau will welcome Macron in Ottawa on Wednesday, where they are expected to discuss collaboration on geopolitical issues including their ongoing support for Ukraine.
They are also expected to discuss ways to strengthen the response to emerging threats, such as disinformation.
In Montreal, Trudeau intends to show off the city’s artificial intelligence sector, while both countries reaffirm their commitment to work with counterparts on responsible use of AI.
The leaders will also discuss promoting the French language ahead of the Francophonie summit being held in France next month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Health Canada has authorized Novavax’s updated COVID-19 vaccine that protects against currently circulating variants of the virus.
The protein-based vaccine, called Nuvaxovid, has been reformulated to target the JN.1 subvariant of Omicron.
It will replace the previous version of the vaccine, which targeted the XBB.1.5 subvariant of Omicron.
Health Canada recently asked provinces and territories to get rid of their older COVID-19 vaccines to ensure the most current vaccine will be used during this fall’s respiratory virus season.
Earlier this week, Health Canada approved Moderna’s updated mRNA COVID vaccine.
It is still reviewing Pfizer’s updated mRNA vaccine, with a decision expected soon.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version erroneously described the Novavax vaccine as an mRNA shot.
