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Health officials warn of potential 'fall peak' in COVID-19 cases in Canada – CBC.ca

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Canada’s top doctors say they’re striving for a best-case scenario but preparing for the worst: a so-called “fall peak” of COVID-19 cases across the country that threatens to overwhelm the public health-care system.

Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam and deputy public health officer Dr. Howard Njoo presented new modelling on the coronavirus on Friday, flagging a potential surge in cases several times worse than what we’ve seen so far in Canada.

Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) documents show officials are aiming for a “slow burn” scenario, in which the number of cases remains low, so that the public health-care system can deal with the influx of patients. But officials are also planning for a “reasonable worst-case scenario,” where a fall spike in infections is followed by ongoing peaks and valleys, putting excessive demands on the health system.

Tam noted that this fall’s surge will coincide with the flu and cold season, potentially putting added strains on hospitals and other health resources.

She declined to put a figure on what the caseload might look like, but said health authorities should plan for “something that’s at least several times worse than your previous experience.” There is much that’s still not known about COVID-19, including whether it accelerates with seasonality.

WATCH | Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam on potential COVID-19 surge:

Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says her team is striving for a best-case scenario but preparing for the worst: a so-called “fall peak” of COVID-19 cases across the country. 1:06

Tam said what actions Canadians take now will determine how transmissions unfold in the fall.

“Continuing to build up capacity across our health, public health and laboratory systems while urging all Canadians to continue with public health practices will give us the best chance of keeping the epidemic on a slow burn, while preparing us in the event of a need to rapidly ramp up response measures for possible larger resurgence,” Tam said.

The number of new cases reported daily has increased in recent weeks, with the highest rate of infection among people aged 20-39 years old.

As businesses and schools reopen and more people return to the workplace, Tam stressed that Canadians must be vigilant in following public health guidelines to avoid a major rebound.

(CBC News)

Key measures to limiting outbreaks are:

  • Detecting and isolating cases.
  • Contact tracing and quarantining.
  • Physical distancing, handwashing and staying home when possible.
  • Using exposure notification apps.

Njoo said about 1.9 million people have downloaded Canada’s COVID-19 exposure notification app, and he urged people to take part, especially young people who go to pubs and nightclubs.

Case load expected to climb

In the short term, PHAC says the case load could grow to between 121,650 and 127,740 by Aug. 23, and the number of deaths could climb to between 8,980 to 9,115.

The majority of cases have been reported in Ontario and Quebec, while Nunavut has not recorded a single case.

Health Minister Patty Hajdu’s office says the government knows a second wave of COVID-19 is possible, and is making appropriate preparations.

“That’s why we’ve been careful in how we’ve started to lift some public health measures, and why we’ve worked with the provinces and territories to establish a supply of PPE and medical supplies to keep Canadians safe,” Hajdu’s spokesperson Cole Davidson said in a statement.

“Deliveries of PPE and medical supplies continue to arrive at PHAC warehouses from both domestic and international suppliers while we work with provinces and territories to prepare for future needs, including the administration of potential vaccines and a possible second wave.”

Today’s modelling information is not intended to predict what will happen, but to provide a snapshot of what could happen in certain scenarios. It projects that the “peaks and valleys” could continue through 2022.

It comes as anxiety increases about potential outbreaks as students return to classrooms in the coming weeks.

British Columbia released its own modelling Thursday, showing the province’s COVID-19 curve is now climbing at a higher rate than the initial outbreak in March, and suggesting a second wave could be bigger than the first by September.

Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry said the province’s contact-tracing efforts could help reduce the number of transmissions. 

Canada’s top doctor has said while Canada has been successful at slowing the spread of COVID-19, there could be a resurgence if Canadians don’t strictly follow public health guidelines on physical distancing, hand-washing and limiting mass gatherings.

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Donald Trump election sparks U.S. interest in move to Canada, say immigration lawyers

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Vancouver immigration lawyer Ryan Rosenberg says he’s been getting so many inquiries from disaffected U.S. voters that he set up a website to address their concerns.

It’s called “Trumpugees.ca” and asks visitors on the home page: “Tired of Trump? Thinking about Canada? We can help.”

Rosenberg – a managing partner at Larlee Rosenberg, Barristers & Solicitors – says he and his colleagues are sensing a spike in immigration interest from a broad swath of U.S. residents disappointed by Donald Trump’s election win Tuesday.

Immigration lawyer Meghan Felt says she’s hearing the same thing from her office in Newfoundland. In Toronto, Royal LePage president Phil Soper says online searches of Canadian properties spiked in the months leading up to the vote.

Maryland geologist Jackson Speary says he’s felt disillusioned with politics for “a very long time,” and is considering job or educational opportunities in Canada.

The 22-year-old says he’s worried Trump’s environmental and economic policies will hinder his work, much of which involves ensuring compliance to federal environmental rules. He wonders if his career would be more stable in Canada.

“It’s a very scary time to be my age and try to continue my career. Especially when you know political turmoil is so topsy-turvy,” Speary says from Stevensville, Md., where he works.

“I feel as though there’s a lot more job security for me in Canada, and potentially a lot more job security for me anywhere else,” he says, noting he’s also considering a move to New Zealand, where he has professional contacts.

Grand proclamations to move to Canada are nothing new, says Rosenberg, who recalls similar promises after George W. Bush’s second election from “mostly blue state Americans who wanted out.” Rosenberg dubbed those would-be Canadians “Bushugees.”

But this time, he says the demographics of the disaffected seem broader in scope, encompassing wealthy Americans, ethnic minorities and Democrats disappointed by the loss of Kamala Harris.

Felt doesn’t have a targeted website like Rosenberg nor is she doing focused promotion, but she says word-of-mouth chatter led five Americans to reach out in the past few days. That’s a jump from maybe one a week.

One client who had mused on moving to Canada two months ago emailed after the vote.

“They’re moving forward, like, immediately,” Felt says from St. John’s, N.L.

More often than not, Americans are curious about Canada’s urban centres and don’t ask about political differences between provinces or countries, she says.

“Canada is Canada. I’ve heard of Americans refer to Canada as like a really large Massachusetts.”

Speary says he’s heard Canada has capped the number of foreign students permitted but that likely won’t dissuade him from pursuing grad school north of the border.

“It is going to be harder, but I think I would be willing to try.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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In the news today: N.S. votes: Tories to release platform today

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Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed…

N.S. votes: Tories to release platform today

The Progressive Conservatives are set to release their party platform today ahead of Nova Scotia’s Nov. 26 provincial election.

They will be the second of the three major parties to release a platform this week after the Liberals presented a plan containing $2.3 billion in election promises over four years.

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill, meanwhile, has an announcement planned in Halifax where he is expected to discuss improving health care for women.

NDP Leader Claudia Chender is in Cape Breton where she is scheduled to spend much of the day campaigning.

Tory Leader Tim Houston pledged to remove parking fees at all provincial hospitals, while Churchill promised to reduce immigration levels to align them with provincial Labour Department targets he says have been exceeded by the government.

Here’s what else we’re watching…

StatCan to release October jobs report today

Statistics Canada is set to release its October labour force survey this morning, shedding light on employment trends and wage growth last month.

RBC is forecasting the economy added a modest 15,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to have ticked back up to 6.6 per cent.

The jobless rate declined slightly to 6.5 per cent in September.

The Canadian job market has loosened significantly as high interest rates have restrained economic growth.

The Bank of Canada, which lowered its policy interest rate by 1.25 percentage points since June, now says it wants to see the economy rebound.

RBC says it expects the unemployment rate to reach seven per cent next year, before trending lower again.

What Trump’s election could mean for rates

Experts say Donald Trump’s election victory could shift interest rate policy in the U.S. as his promised policies risk higher inflation, which could ultimately have implications for Canadian rates and the loonie.

Markets rallied Wednesday and into Thursday in the wake of his victory as investors prepared for what his proposals might bring.

Among those promises are large tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, as well as lower tax rates and lighter regulation.

Economist Sheila Block says the large tariffs proposed by Trump would likely put upward pressure on inflation in the U.S.

Higher inflation would mean the U.S. Federal Reserve could be slower to cut interest rates, and markets are already shifting their bets on how low the central bank is likely to go on rates.

B.C. election judicial recounts expected to finish

Judicial recounts in British Columbia’s provincial election should wrap up today, confirming whether Premier David Eby’s New Democrats hang onto their one-seat majority almost three weeks after the vote.

Most attention will be on the closest race of Surrey-Guildford, where the NDP were ahead by a mere 27 votes, a margin narrow enough to trigger a hand recount of more than 19,000 ballots that’s being overseen by a B.C. Supreme Court judge.

Elections BC spokesman Andrew Watson says the recounts are expected to conclude today, but certification won’t happen until next week following an appeal period.

The Election Act says the deadline to appeal the results must be filed with the court within two days after they are declared, but Watson says that due to Remembrance Day on Monday, that period would end at 4 p.m. Tuesday.

When an appeal is filed, it must be heard no later than 10 days after the registrar receives the notice of appeal.

Another full recount is also taking place in Kelowna Centre, narrowly won by the B.C. Conservatives, while a partial recount will take place in Prince George-Mackenzie to tally votes from an uncounted ballot box that contained about 861 votes.

The Prince George-Mackenzie recount won’t change the outcome because the B.C. Conservative candidate there won by more than 5,000 votes.

If neither Surrey-Guildford nor Kelowna Centre change hands, the NDP will have 47 seats and the Conservatives 44, while the Greens have two seats in the 93-riding legislature.

Another beluga whale dies at Marineland

Three weeks after the death of another beluga whale at Marineland, the Ontario government is speaking publicly about its ongoing investigation of the park, saying water troubles are under control after a recent investment.

The province’s chief animal welfare inspector told The Canadian Press that to her understanding, marine mammal deaths at the tourist destination in Niagara Falls, Ont., have not been related to water quality.

Five belugas have died at the park in the last year and 17 have died since late 2019, government records show. Three other belugas sold to a Connecticut aquarium in 2021 have since died.

Kiska, the country’s last remaining killer whale in captivity, died in April 2023. One dolphin, one harbour seal, one grey seal, two sea lions and two Magellanic penguins have also died at the park in the past five years.

Marineland did not answer questions about the animal deaths, and instead twice responded to recent queries with accusations that journalism published by The Canadian Press was driven by its reporter’s “personal animal rights beliefs and activism.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024



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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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