Here's how CMHC thinks COVID-19 will impact Vancouver's real estate market - CTV News | Canada News Media
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Here's how CMHC thinks COVID-19 will impact Vancouver's real estate market – CTV News

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VANCOUVER —
A report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecasts lower housing starts, sales and prices for the country’s major markets – and a slower rebound in Vancouver than in some other cities.

The latest outlook, released Tuesday morning, looks at the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic so far, and estimates when things may return to normal. Scroll down to read through the full report, including information on other markets.

Housing starts

Senior analysts Braden Batch and Eric Bond wrote that housing starts in B.C.’s most populous city are expected to “contract significantly in the immediate future.”

While B.C.’s approach to the novel coronavirus pandemic has allowed for construction, new builds will be challenged by reduced migration from Canada and aboard, the Vancouver market forecast says.

Additional factors impacting housing starts are increased unemployment and uncertainty regarding long-term economic impacts of COVID-19.

Prior to the pandemic, the report says, the construction industry had been operating at or near capacity. Still, the CMHC said, there was a decline in construction activity even before the pandemic.

The corporation expects things to pick up again toward the end of the year.

Sales and price recovery

CMHC expects a contraction of the resale market, but forecasts a recovery period starting next year.

Resale activity was “largely suspended” early on in the pandemic, and listings declined at that time as well.

Sales had slowed down in 2018-19, but were starting to pick up again before the pandemic. COVID-19 is expected to delay the recovery, the CMHC report says.

And those who are looking to sell may be getting less for their homes for the time being.

“A price decline will occur, but it will take place more gradually over the next two years before showing some recovery in late 2022,” the report says.

The CMHC report forecasts average house prices declining due to residents’ reduced incomes.

There’s been an uneven impact on buyers of condos and detached houses, the corporaration says, so there’s “additional uncertainty for the path of the average price decline.”

While most markets are expected to see homes selling for less, CMHC says prices may return to normal earlier in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary should expect a slower rise back to pre-pandemic prices, it says.

Rental demand

While owners may be worried about the impact of the pandemic, those in the rental market have been more directly impacted so far.

CMHC says the rise in unemployment and sudden, lengthy border closures are hitting the more sensitive rental market harder.

Buyers tend to be older than renters, and less likely to have lost their jobs, the report says.

Last week, B.C. Finance Minister Carole James said those most impacted have been the province’s lowest earners: young people and women

Women are 25 per cent more likely to have lost their job than men, and the youth unemployment rate reached 29 per cent, according to the latest data.

Young people are less likely to have accumulated enough savings to buy in Vancouver, and the rental market is “largely driven by the influx of young migrants,” the report says. Many of these migrants are immigrants to Canada.

The border closure was expected to have a direct impact on the demand for rentals.

 

The report includes information on other major Canadian markets. Read through the full 18 pages below.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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