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Here's how government can cool housing prices without hurting homeowners – Financial Post

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The three tiers of government should collaborate to address the chronic undersupply of housing

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The rapid escalation of housing prices in the middle of a pandemic has alarmed many and so, not surprisingly, the calls for governments to act are getting louder.

A buffet of interventions, from eliminating the exemption on proceeds from the sale of a principal residence to the tightening of mortgage regulations, has started to surface.

Of course, the proper way to cool housing prices depends upon an informed prognosis of market conditions. Is the rapid increase in prices driven by market fundamentals, or is it a result of speculative bidding in a market where “animal spirits” are running loose?

Interest rates in Canada have steadily declined over the past two decades and that has put mortgage rates at historic lows, which can have two direct consequences. First, ultra-low mortgage rates reduce the borrowing costs for homebuyers such that their monthly mortgage payments are considerably reduced. Second, they cause upward pressure on pricing because these monthly mortgage payments are less affected by increasing prices than they would be at higher interest rates.

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Given the current circumstances, prospective homebuyers have two rational responses: Leave money (cheap debt) on the table and wait for a future where prices might be lower, but interest rates will be higher; or buy now to take advantage of the low interest rates.

Even if monthly mortgage payments are similar in high and low interest rate scenarios, a household’s long-term finances are impacted differently because a monthly mortgage instalment has two components: interest and principal.

With a high mortgage rate of five per cent or more, the interest component could consume more than two-thirds of the first monthly instalment, while the rest is dedicated to reducing the principal owed.

The balance between interest and principal reverses at lower interest rates. At a mortgage rate of, say, two per cent, the principal paid could account for two-thirds or more of the monthly instalment, and the interest accounts for the rest of the payment.

Will Dunning, a veteran housing economist, believes housing affordability has been improving over the past 15 years because homeowners can save more when principal payments account for a large share of the monthly instalment.

But although low interest rates improve affordability, some believe the recent rapid increase in prices is also a sign of irrational exuberance.

Sal Guatieri, a senior economist and director at BMO Capital Markets, said market fundamentals drive housing prices and demand. More buyers and fewer sellers have created a situation where prices have appreciated faster.

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Potential buyers can make two assumptions about the future when housing prices rapidly rise. They may believe that prices will continue to grow, and so the rational response will be to buy now rather than later. Or they may assume that the so-called bubble will burst soon, and they may stay on the sidelines waiting for favourable buying conditions.

As housing prices climb, many point to metrics such as the housing price-to-income ratio, which suggests a worsening of housing affordability. But the price-to-income ratio would only matter if homebuyers were paying the full price in cash. Most homebuyers borrow money to finance a house purchase. Therefore, the share of income consumed by housing costs might be a better metric to gauge affordability.


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Either way, the unintended consequences of government interventions can often have lasting impacts. In the early 1970s, the federal government implemented the capital gains tax on the Carter Commission’s advice. An unintended and immediate consequence was the precipitous decline in the construction of purpose-built rental housing. More than four decades later, rental housing construction has never achieved the same heights as in the early 1970s.

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The same holds true for the supply of housing in general. In the 1970s, when the Canadian population was much lower than where it is today, far more housing was built. Since the mid-1970s, however, housing construction has been comparatively lower, even though the population has continued to increase.

If governments feel tempted to act, they should finally realize that residential construction in Canada has not kept pace with the population over the past five decades. Rather than hurt existing homeowners and current homebuyers with knee-jerk regulations, the three tiers of government should collaborate to address the chronic undersupply of housing.

Murtaza Haider is a professor at Ryerson University. Stephen Moranis is a real estate industry veteran. They can be reached at the Haider-Moranis Bulletin websitehmbulletin.com.

In-depth reporting on the innovation economy from The Logic, brought to you in partnership with the Financial Post.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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