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Here's what China's e-commerce giants are telling us about the economy – CNBC

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Across five major e-commerce platforms’ GMV, Alibaba’s market share fell by 6% in the first quarter versus the fourth, according to Bernstein analysis.
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BEIJING — Alibaba was once the poster child for investing in modern China. Now the e-commerce market that fueled its growth is slowing, while new players eat away at Alibaba’s market share.

That’s reflected in the stocks’ performance since an apparent bottom in sentiment on major Chinese internet names in mid-March.

Pinduoduo shares have more than doubled since then, while Meituan shares have climbed 80%, and JD shares are up more than 50% in Hong Kong. Kuaishou is up by nearly 47%.

Alibaba shares have climbed about 42% in Hong Kong, and 33% in New York. Tencent is up only about 25%.

But except for Kuaishou and Pinduoduo, the stocks are still down for the year so far.

“Our top picks in the sector remain JD, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou,” Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu and a team said in a report this week. “Interest in Alibaba has persisted, chiefly from overseas investors, while feedback on Tencent has become very negative.”

Bernstein expects consumer and regulatory trends to favor stock plays in “real” categories — e-commerce, food delivery and local services — over “virtual” ones — gaming, media and entertainment.

A slowing e-commerce market

Over the weekend, the 6.18 shopping festival spearheaded by JD.com saw total transaction volume rise by 10.3% to 379.3 billion yuan ($56.61 billion). That is a new high in value — but the slowest growth on record, according to Reuters.

Merchants who spoke with Nomura said Covid lockdowns disrupted apparel production, while consumer demand was generally low, according to a Sunday report. High-end product sales fared better than mass-market ones, the report said, citing a merchant.

Alibaba, whose main shopping festival is in November, only said it saw growth in gross merchandise value from last year, without disclosing figures. GMV measures total sales value over a certain period of time.

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“Online retail growth is likely to be slower this year than in 2020 and 2021, and its gain in penetration rate may be weaker than the average of 2.6 [percentage points] during 2015-2021,” Fitch said in a report last week.

“This is due to a larger base, deeper integration of online and offline channels … and weaker consumer confidence on concerns of a slowing economy and rising unemployment,” the firm said. Fitch expects online sales of food and household goods to perform better than that of apparel.

In May, online retail sales of goods surged by more than 14% from a year ago, but overall retail sales fell by 6.7% during that time.

Fitch expects China’s retail sales to only grow by low single digits this year, versus 12.5% in 2021. But the firm expects online sales of goods can expand its share of total retail goods to around 29% in 2022, versus 27.4% in 2021 and 27.7% in 2020.

New players grab Alibaba’s market share

In that online shopping market, new companies have emerged as rivals to Alibaba. These include short-video and livestreaming platforms Kuaishou and Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok also owned by ByteDance.

Across five major e-commerce platforms’ GMV, Alibaba’s market share fell by 6% in the first quarter versus the fourth, according to Bernstein analysis published early this month.

JD, Pinduoduo, Douyin and Kuaishou all grew market share during that time, the report said. Douyin’s GMV share increased the most, by 38%, although its combined market share with Kuaishou is only about 12% among the five companies.

In a sign of how Kuaishou has emerged as its own e-commerce player, the app in March cut off links to other online shopping sites.

“Their recent decision to cut off external links to [Alibaba’s] Taobao and JD shows that times have changed,” Ashley Dudarenok, founder of China marketing consultancy ChoZan, said at the time of the news. “Taobao is no longer the only main battlefield for e-commerce.”

In the quarter ended March 31, Kuaishou reported GMV on its platform of 175.1 billion yuan, a surge of nearly 48% from a year ago.

Last month, ByteDance’s Douyin claimed its e-commerce GMV more than tripled in the last year, without specifying when that year ended. Douyin banned links to external e-commerce platforms in 2020.

While Douyin dwarfs Kuaishou by number of users, what’s different for investors wanting to play the short-video e-commerce trend is that Kuaishou is publicly listed.

Even in JPMorgan’s prior call in March to downgrade 28 “uninvestable” Chinese internet stocks, the analysts kept their only “overweight” on Kuaishou based on “management’s sharper focus on margin improvement, higher gross margin, larger user base and less competition risk.”

Users like cosmetics livestreamer Zhao Mengche often describe Kuaishou as having a “community,” in which he said the app is trying to integrate more brands and mimic a village market square — online. Zhao has more than 20 million followers on Kuaishou.

During this year’s 6.18 shopping festival, fashion-focused social media app Xiaohongshu claimed more merchants made their products available directly on the app, and said users could buy imported JD.com products through Xiaohongshu as well.

Ad spending declines

Looking ahead, companies were more inclined in the first quarter to spend on advertising closest to where consumers might make a purchase, rather than just building awareness, according to Bernstein. They estimated growth of 65.8% in Kuaishou e-commerce ads in the first quarter from a year ago, with Pinduoduo, JD and Meituan also seeing double-digit growth.

However, revenue across the top 25 advertising platforms tracked by Bernstein grew by 7.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, slower than 10.8% growth in the prior quarter.

And for ByteDance — the largest advertising platform in China in the first quarter alongside Alibaba — Bernstein estimated domestic ads grew by only 15% in the first three months of the year, despite livestreaming sales GMV likely nearly tripling, the analysts said.

They expect ByteDance’s domestic ads business to slow to the single digits, or even contract, in the second quarter.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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