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Here's why Joe Biden's economy is heading in the wrong direction – CNN

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New York (CNN Business)From supply chain chaos to worker shortages, America’s economic recovery ran into some serious challenges in the third quarter of the year.

Economists polled by Refinitiv expect that between July and September America’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the recovery began — an annualized rate of 2.7% — and a massive step down from the 6.7% rate in the spring.
At 2.7%, the pace of US gross domestic product growth, the broadest measure of economic activity, would pretty much be where it was before the pandemic. The growth rate in the third quarter of 2019, for example, was 2.8%.
So it’s not … terrible. It’s just bad news by recovery standards.
But the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model looks even more dire, projecting an annualized growth rate of only 0.5% in the third quarter.
“Supply chain bottlenecks sharply curtailed activity last quarter despite the massive stimulus spending,” said economists at Action Economics.
For the Biden administration, it means the White House and lawmakers have their work cut out for them to get the recovery back on track.
Washington said it will work with ports to resolve shipping backlogs, which sounds promising, but right now some $24 billion worth of goods are still floating on container ships outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Shortages everywhere you look

The supply chain crisis is a problem everywhere. Factories are waiting for materials and parts and consumers are standing by for finished products as prices continue to soar. US industrial production declined in September by 1.3% as manufacturers struggled with shortages of materials and qualified workers.
Over time, the supply chain gridlock should ease — or at least that’s the hope. But there is also a labor shortage holding companies back.
US job openings spiked to a record 11.1 million in July as companies across sectors were looking for staff to help meet the surge in consumer demand. Restaurants, many of which had to furlough their staffs, have had a hard time getting enough workers back, while manufacturers in particular are complaining of a lack of skilled laborers.
America’s workers are in hot demand, but many are still struggling with care responsibilities of their own and the risk of contracting the virus. Those millions of unfilled jobs also mean that workers can afford to wait until they find a good opportunity. In response, many companies are raising wages to attract potential employees.

Nervous consumers

Rising wages are definitely good for consumers, but Americans still had lots of other things to worry about in the third quarter.
For one, the more infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus hurt consumer sentiment, sending the indicator to its lowest level since December 2011. The renewed rise in infections temporarily hurt customer’s willingness to be around strangers at restaurants or in airplanes.
Meanwhile, inflation kept hitting new highs. In June, July and September, consumer price inflation stood at 5.4% year-over-year, a 13-year high. Another inflation measure, the price index that tracks consumer spending, rose to 4.3% year-over-year in August — a 30-year high.
Rising prices haven’t deterred consumers — at least so far. But there is worry that prices could eventually rise high enough that Americans would start closing their wallets.
Tuesday’s consumer confidence data for October suggests this still hasn’t happened and consumers are still happy to spend — good news for the fourth quarter.
“We expect a return to form for the American consumer in the final quarter of the year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
In fact, the hope for a robust holiday shopping season might already have helped with GDP growth in the third quarter: “The major catalyst for growth during the third quarter will almost certainly be a strong period of inventory building ahead of the traditional holiday shopping season,” Brusuelas said.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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