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Higher interest rates hitting Canadians harder

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More Canadians are struggling with the higher cost of mortgage debt, and anxiety is rising for those who face renewal on the horizon, says a new survey.

The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates 10 times in its battle against inflation from a low of 0.25 per cent starting in March 2022 to 5 per cent, a 22-year high.

While the Bank is widely expected to hold its rate tomorrow, the poll by the Angus Reid Institute reveals more Canadians are struggling with their monthly mortgage payments at the level they are now.

The survey found that the number of Canadians who say their mortgage is “very difficult” to pay has doubled since March. Fifteen per cent of mortgage borrowers say they are struggling, up from eight per cent in March.

Homeowners on a variable-rate mortgage have seen their payments climb steadily, but those who took out a mortgage between 2018 and 2020 on a low fixed-rate also have reason for anxiety.

As renewal approaches, they face the possibility of big jumps in their monthly payments, a worry shared by four in five homeowners with a mortgage in the survey. Almost 60 per cent of those who must renew in the next 12 months were “very worried.”

Overall the survey found that Canadians are increasingly negative about their financial situation and prospects. Half say they are in worse financial position than a year ago and 35 per cent expect to be in worse shape a year from now. Both these percentages tie with the worst seen in 13 years of data collecting by the Angus Reid Institute.

The rising cost of living is now the top issue facing the country for two-thirds of Canadians, and housing affordability has outpaced climate change as a leading concern.

All this is costing Canadians in other ways, said the survey. Two thirds of the people polled say they view their household debt level as a minor or major source of stress. For Canadians who have a mortgage the percentage rises to 81 per cent.

NBF Economics and Strategy

It takes a while for interest rate increases to affect the economy, which means the weakening in consumer spending and confidence that we are already seeing will likely get worse. The Bank of Canada’s estimate for the full impact of rate hikes to set in is eight quarters, and based on that National Bank of Canada economists calculate that 42 per cent of the impact is still left to come.

“For this reason, it would be perilous for the central bank to focus on the resilience of core inflation in its rate decision [Wednesday], as this indicator reacts with a lag to the economic situation which looks set to be moribund over the next 12 months,” said economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme.

 

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Despite years of looking at underlying fundamentals and understanding risk, portfolio manager Martin Pelletier still finds it confusing that tech stocks are rallying despite higher interest rates, the escalating Middle East conflict and increasing worries over the global economy. He prefers to look at cash-flow yields and what is required to achieve those yields measured against lower-risk alternatives offering up near-similar returns. Find out more at FP Investing

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store

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