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Home prices across Canada could fall almost 7% in 2021, report predicts – CBC.ca

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Home prices across Canada could tumble about seven per cent in 2021, as unemployment dampens the hot real estate market, according to a forecast by Moody’s Analytics, Inc.

There is a “dangerous” oversupply of new, single-family homes in Calgary and Edmonton, on top of affordability issues in Vancouver and Toronto, the financial intelligence company said in a report this week.

“The housing market will no longer be able to escape the poor condition of the labour market,” said the report, which used data from a Brookfield Asset Management Inc. subsidiary, RPS Real Property Solutions Inc.

“Not even lower interest rates will be enough to save the housing market.”

Moody’s report did not go into detail on how it created the forecasts, but said that its 2021 home price index also calls for a 6.7 per cent decrease for single-family homes and a 6.5 per cent decline in condo apartments.

The prediction from Moody’s comes after the Canadian Real Estate Association reported record-shattering home sales in July and August amid low mortgage rates.

Some optimists expect this record run to continue. A survey of ReMax brokers earlier this month suggested that average residential home prices could rise 4.6 per cent by the end of 2020.

CMHC echoes forecast

But Moody’s forecast says the real estate sector will lose its momentum in the first half of 2021, and it’s not alone. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. economist Bob Dugan also predicted earlier this week that housing prices will fall going forward.

“Moody’s Analytics expects that the shortlived burst of growth in the third quarter will produce too few job gains to meaningfully reduce unemployment,” the report said.

For instance, Moody’s said that housing starts — a closely watched statistic that has rebounded sharply this summer — partly reflects investments made before the pandemic.

“Builders have spent too much money on the projects to abandon them,” the report said.

While home prices would fall in every region under Moody’s model, the impact would be uneven and would favour small, affordable markets. While lower immigration may hurt condos in urban markets, Moody’s suggested that buyers seeking more space may look to Oshawa, Ont., as prices rise in other Toronto suburbs like Mississauga.

Prairies hit hard

Moody’s forecast hits especially hard the Prairies, amid fading government supports, the end of mortgage payment deferrals and ongoing struggles with consumer debt and joblessness. The report notes that bankruptcy filings and insolvency proposals have been rising since late 2018.

“The pandemic will lead to even further widening in economic inequality, including housing,” said the Moody’s report.

“While demand for single-family homes with ample space and large pantries may rise, so too might demand for smaller apartments and condos given the struggle many families will face in saving for a down payment.”

If a COVID-19 vaccine comes out in the back half of 2021, the report suggests that home prices will bounce back in 2022.

“A second leg downward in the labour and financial markets caused by a renewed wave of COVID-19 this fall and winter could spur a greater than expected decline in house prices,” the report said.

“The development and broad deployment of a highly effective coronavirus therapy or vaccine remains the greatest wild card in the forecast. If a vaccine is delayed, then so too is the timing of the recovery.”

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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