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Home prices in Metro Vancouver to drop starting later this year: CMHC | Urbanized – Daily Hive

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Expect a years-long downturn in Metro Vancouver’s residential real estate market due to the prolonged impacts of COVID-19.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) newly released forecast states housing starts in the Vancouver region will “contract significantly in the immediate future,” with demand taking a fall due to reduced immigration, domestic migration, the loss of household income due to mass unemployment, and the increased economic uncertainty affecting consumer confidence.

Analysts say the immediate effect of COVID-19 deepened the decline in construction activity that was already in progress before the pandemic, but housing starts are expected to see some recovery by the end of 2020 to a pace that is based on the region’s fundamentals and economic growth.

CMHC Vancouver forecast. (CMHC)

Total housing starts — new construction — could range from 11,925 units to 17,710 units in 2020, 15,290 units to 23,475 units in 2021, and 16,050 units to 24,060 units in 2022. In comparison, there were 23,404 unit starts in 2018, and 28,141 in 2019.

Prior to the pandemic, sales activity on new construction was recovering from the downturn induced by government interventionist policies, but the effect of COVID-19 will delay this recovery.

CMHC Vancouver forecast. (CMHC)

As for home prices, there will be a gradual price decline over the next two years, before a recovery beginning at the end of 2022.

A contraction in the resale market is also expected, which will see a slow pace for the remainder of 2020, with a recovery starting sometime in 2021.

Total home sales is forecast to reach 27,290 units to 29,515 units in 2020, 25,590 units to 29,800 units in 2021, and 27,100 units to 32,370 units in 2022. This is down from 33,057 unit sales in 2018 and 33,535 in 2019.

Average home prices reached $966,866 in 2018 and $923,195 in 2019. But COVID-19’s severe economic impact may send average home prices downward: $893,000 to $919,000 in 2020, $828,000 to $889,000 in 2021, and $809,000 to $889,000 in 2022.

CMHC Vancouver forecast. (CMHC)

“Average house prices will decline with weaker household budgets and the uncertain nature of the economic reopening,” reads the report.

“In addition, the uneven impact on buyers at different levels of income will result in a change to the share of condominium and single detached sales, creating additional uncertainty for the path of the average price decline.”

In the rental housing market, CMHC states there is a possibility for a rising vacancy rate over the short term — an increase from the historical regional vacancy rate low of 1% before the pandemic. This accounts for both the increased supply of rental units due to the drop in demand, as well as the increase in new purpose-built rental starts.

“The brunt of job losses has so far been borne by younger employees who are less likely to have the accumulated savings necessary to buy,” continues the report.

“The same is true of population growth in the Vancouver CMA, which is largely driven by the influx of young migrants, most of whom are immigrants to Canada. The immediate decline in migration to Vancouver is expected to reduce rental demand directly.”

Metro Vancouver real estate price history from 1977 to 2019. (Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver)

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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