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Home prices under ‘full-scale attack’ as interest rates, taxes rise: economist – Global News

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The Bank of Canada’s path to rising interest rates coupled with new provincial taxes on non-resident buyers could send home prices down more than 10 per cent, according to an analyst with the Bank of Montreal.

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a note to clients Wednesday morning that “there is now a full-scale attack on Canadian home prices across various levels of policy.”

He cited marked expectations of surging interest rates in the months ahead and new or higher taxes on real estate speculators and non-resident buyers in some provinces as the biggest factors that could see home prices take a hit in the year ahead.

Reuters reported this week that money markets are betting the Bank of Canada could raise its overnight rate target by up to 225 basis points before the end of 2022. Such a hike could see the key rate rapidly rise from its current 0.5 per cent level to 2.75 per cent over the next nine months.

To do so, the central bank might take the rare step of raising interest rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting on April 13. BMO is expecting 50-basis-point hikes in the next two Bank of Canada announcements, followed by a return to 25-basis-point hikes in July.






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The Bank of Canada first hiked interest rates by a quarter percentage point earlier this year, a move that some observers say has already had a “cooling effect” on the country’s hot housing market.

In an interview with Global News on Wednesday, Kavcic said it’s arguable that the Bank of Canada is “well behind the curve” on raising interest rates as inflation surges and home prices continue to set records.

“Because of that, they’re going to move quickly,” he says. “That’s the single biggest measure we can take here to cool down the pace of home price growth and inflation more broadly.”

Prices could drop as new taxes take hold

The Bank of Canada is not the only actor targeting the housing market, however.

Ontario announced this week that it would raise its existing tax on non-resident buyers to 20 per cent and expand the policy provincewide. Nova Scotia also said it would implement a purchase tax on non-resident buyers.

Read more:

Ontario introduces new legislation to increase housing supply in province

The involvement of investors and real estate speculators has been one of the factors driving up Canadian home prices, Kavcic argues.

“We’ve seen, over the last year, some speculation and investor activity push up prices beyond what would be justified by income and employment and demographic fundamentals and all that kind of stuff that usually drives house prices,” he says.






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If history is any indication, Kavcic says the coincident moves from the Bank of Canada and Ontario policymakers could send house prices down.

The situation resembles 2017, he explains, when Ontario first introduced its non-resident buyer tax. At that same time, the Bank of Canada was also in a cycle of raising interest rates in an effort to clamp down on rampant price growth.

The result then was a 10 to 15 per cent decline in detached home prices in the Greater Toronto Area, Kavcic says.

“It’s kind of an echo of what we saw in the last cycle, where we had a very strong run in home prices,” he says.

Read more:

Some Canadians struggle to enter housing market as costs rise — ‘Nothing we can do’

“If we saw 10 per cent after early 2017, when arguably we weren’t as frothy as we are today, we could see more than that.”

A drop in prices and some lost equity for homeowners might not be a problem for the Bank of Canada, Kavcic says.

Because the average home price in Canada has surged over the course of the pandemic — up 26.6 per cent year-over-year in 2021, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association — giving back even 15 per cent of the value of those homes won’t set most households back, he argues.

“They’re an inflation-targeting central bank and their first job is to get inflation back down into that one three per cent range. And if lower house prices are a byproduct of that, they’re going to have to just let it go.”






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© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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