Hong Kong’s Economic Growth Slowed in Second Quarter, Chan Says | Canada News Media
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Hong Kong’s Economic Growth Slowed in Second Quarter, Chan Says

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(Bloomberg) — Hong Kong’s post-pandemic economic boom is already running out of steam, suggesting the financial hub’s return to growth this year may not be as strong as initially hoped.

Gross domestic product rose 1.5% in the April-to-June from a year earlier, according to advance estimates released by the government on Monday. That was far weaker than the 3.5% estimated by economists and slower than the first quarter’s 2.5% pickup.

While the data undershot expectations, Financial Secretary Paul Chan on Sunday did warn of waning growth ahead of the release. He flagged the potential for a “slightly slower” year-on-year growth rate, citing more muted spending habits among residents. They are in some cases taking their money to neighboring Shenzhen, which he said has emerged as a popular tourist and shopping destination.

Hong Kong spent years mired in recession, contracting in three of the past four years as the city’s tough virus controls restricted border flows and curbed local activity. The city expanded in the first quarter as it opened back up. Returning tourists were expected to contribute to growth, which officials estimated would reach between 3.5% and 5.5%.

Economists think Hong Kong can hit the low end of that wide range by the end of 2023, but the months ahead may still be challenging.

“The main drivers will be consumption and tourism” due to cyclical tailwinds, said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis SA, adding that last year’s low base of comparison will help. But he said it’s “hard to expect a quick recovery of exports” given weak global demand.

“Any meaningful rebound may really only come in Q4 for Hong Kong’s exports,” Ng said, citing that timeframe as when firms that accumulated inventory post-Covid will be able to get back to balance through destocking.

Monday’s data showed household spending growing 8.5% in April-to-June from a year prior — weaker than the 12.5% expansion in January-to-March. While goods exports dropped at a slightly slower pace than in the first quarter, those overseas shipments still recorded a double-digit decline. Imports of goods fell 16.1%.

A big drag on exports was China, according to Samuel Tse, economist at DBS Bank Ltd, who noted that the mainland accounts for around 60% of Hong Kong’s exports.

Government spending in the second quarter declined 9.6% — a big reversal from the first quarter’s 0.5% rise.

That pullback “is consistent with the government’s plans to consolidate its fiscal position following huge Covid related outlays in previous years,” said Lloyd Chan, economist at Oxford Economics Ltd.

Hong Kong’s fiscal deficit ballooned during its isolation, with the budget shortfall for the 2022-2023 fiscal year hitting a whopping HK$140 billion. The International Monetary Fund earlier this year recommended the government reduce the deficit “gradually.”

The government sounded some optimism over the state of the economy, including that an improving economic situation “should bode well for domestic demand.”

“In particular, improving labor market conditions, together with the government’s various measures to boost the momentum of the recovery, will provide additional support to private consumption,” a spokesperson said in a statement accompanying the data.

The spokesperson warned that “tight financial conditions may impose constraints.” Goods exports will also face pressure, the person said.

–With assistance from Philip Glamann.

(Updates to include additional background and commentary.)

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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