Three of the four biggest months for U.S. trade ever are the latest three months, according to my analysis of government data released Friday.
Three months in 2021 rank among the top 15 ever — the three most recent.
ustradenumbers.com
More trade occurred in March than any month in U.S. history, with May third and April fourth all-time. The Census Bureau data released Friday covers through May.
That strength is not coming from the usual suspects. This will present another data set for financial markets and economists to digest, who are still wrestling with whether inflation is picking up only short-term or more long-term.
On the import side, motor vehicles, often the leading U.S. import, are off 22.62% from pre-pandemic total registered in May of 2019. That’s $3.45 billion.
The value of crude oil, the second-ranked import, was off 21.82% from May 0f 2019. That’s equal to $2.92 billion. The value of gasoline and other refined petroleum products, the seventh-ranked import, is down $514.02 million from May of 2019.
On the export side, the category led by civilian aircraft, which had ranked first for 76 consecutive months, has ranked second to oil three of the last five months, with May totals down 43.35% in May from the same month in 2019, before the pandemic.
Even oil, one of the nation’s fastest-growing exports, is down 5.13% from May of 2019. Motor vehicle parts, a key cog in the automotive supply chain, have yet to recover fully from the pandemic and are down $997.79 million, or 25.05%, from May of 2019.
So how to explain the record growth in U.S. trade?
As with total trade, three of the top 15 exports of all time are this year.
ustradenumbers.com
The growth on the export side, when comparing May of this year to May of 2019, is from:
No. 5-ranked natural gas and other petroleum gases, up $2.06 billion, 79.08%,
No. 6 computer chips, up $1.46 billion, 45.87%,
No. 9 vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions, up $934.31 million, a robust 45.86% from May two years ago.
No. 13-ranked corn, up 172.14%, equal to $1.5 billion.
No. 17 platinum, up $1.07 billion, 301.32% from May 2019.
To be clear, May 2019 was no slouch of a month. It was the second biggest May in history for U.S. exports, behind only May of 2021, and the 12-busiest of all time. Overall exports increased a meager 1.07% between May 2019 and May 2021.
March, April and May of 2021 have been strong years for U.S. imports as well as total trade.
ustradenumbers.com
On the import side, if not cars and oil, then what? And do these fast-growing imports suggest inflationary pressures?
Well, the effects of Covid-19 can still be seen in several high-flyers, including two of which registered values in May of 2021 more than $1 billion above the May 2019 total.
No. 18, a primary lumber category that has been well-publicized for being caught up in the supply chain shortage brought on my home repairs and other construction,. was up $1.33 billion in May, an increase of 245.14% over May of 2019.
No. 21 platinum is up $1.16 billion, an increase equal to 255.83%.
No. 3 computers are up $799.71 million, a less stratospheric 9.84% that is nevertheless slightly better than twice the rate of growth for all U.S. imports. Technology tends not to be hit by inflation; in fact, it is often quite the opposite, In this case, think home offices needing to be outfitted. Still. One year after the pandemic struck.
No. 10 computer chips were up $948.57 million in May, when compared to May of 2019, an increase of 35.26%.
No. 30, a category dominated by non-surgical rubber or latex gloves, was up $982.40 million, an increase of 418.42%. Think all those people wearing those blue gloves to serve you.
No. 40 exercise and gym equipment, is pumped up as well, increasing $525.35 million, a 87,07% jump. More than a few people didn’t like what they saw in that full-length mirror while stranded at home — and those sales seem to still be strong.
As was the case with exports, on the import side, it isn’t like May 2019 was a down year, making it easier to post big percentage gains this May. May of 2019 was the sixth biggest month in U.S. history.
Given the strong month of May, it should come as no surprise that U.S. trade is still running at a record pace, with overall trade at $1.79 trillion, a 4.36% gain on the record pace set in 2019. Exports stood at $692.28 billion through May, up a sliver, 0.83% above the 2018 record pace. Imports topped $1.09 trillion, an increase of 6.55% over the 2019 pace.
For the first time ever, the U.S. trade deficit topped $400 billion in the first five months of a year, ending at $401.34 billion. The percentage of trade that is a U.S. export, which tends to run somewhat parallel to the trade deficit, was at its lowest level since 2008, at 38.76%.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
