Housing prices in Canada could fall 15 per cent by Dec. 2023 after Bank of Canada rate hikes: report - CTV News | Canada News Media
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Housing prices in Canada could fall 15 per cent by Dec. 2023 after Bank of Canada rate hikes: report – CTV News

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As the Bank of Canada continues to hike rates in order to curb inflation, housing prices in Canada could fall 15 per cent from its peak by the end of next year, a new report says.

The average price of a home in Canada peaked at just over $790,000 in February 2022, marking a 50 per cent increase over two years. But the report, published on Wednesday by Desjardins, says by December 2023, the average national home price could fall to around $675,000.

Since the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation, home prices has steadily declined. Desjardins says that average price of a home in Canada fell 2.6 per cent month-to-month in March and 3.8 per cent in April.

But despite the expected drop, Desjardins notes that $675,000 is still nearly 30 per cent above what it was in December 2019, when the average price of a home was $530,000 in Canada. Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist for Desjardins, says he expects the decline in home prices to be “fairly manageable” before stabilizing, citing increasing levels in immigration and a continuous shortage of housing supply amid strong demand.

“Our expectation is for the housing market to cool to moderate, but we’re not expecting any collapse by any measure,” Jean told CTV News on Thursday.

For most homeowners who intend to keep living in their homes for decades to come, including those who jumped into the market near the peak, Jean says this housing correction will only be a small “blip.”

“Housing is an investment normally you make for the long-term,” Jean said. “Ultimately, you’re buying a product to raise a family, to live into. So, over the long term, things will stabilize and pick up again. So, it’s not a major concern from that perspective.”

But it’s a different story for real estate investors who were expecting huge gains from rising housing prices.

“If you rent out a property, sometimes, if you don’t collect enough in terms of rent to make up for the mortgage costs or the utility costs, those decisions were still justified by the idea that prices would keep appreciating,” he said. “Now it’s another story.”

The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates again by another 50 basis points in July, and bank governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that interest rates may have to spike to 3.0 per cent.

But Desjardins economists believe Macklem won’t have to go all the way to 3.0 per cent and say 2.25 per cent will be enough to slow inflation.

“The Canadian economy is highly rate sensitive,” Jean said. “We think this moderation will be significant and will cause economic growth, and therefore inflation, to slow, and that will remove the necessity for Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada to hike all the way to three per cent.”

HOUSING CORRECTION TO BE MOST SEVERE IN MARITIMES

While a 15 per cent drop is what Desjardins forecasts nationally, some regions may experience even bigger corrections, particularly in parts of Canada that saw that steepest pandemic-era home price increases.

After years of population declines, the Maritime provinces saw an explosion in population growth from 2020 and onwards, as the advent of remote work enabled more Canadians from big cities to flock to the east coast, seeking larger and more affordable living spaces.

In turn, P.E.I., Nova Scotia and New Brunswick saw the highest housing price increases in the country. Compared to December 2019 levels, the average price of a home in these provinces rose 62 to 70 per cent in February 2022.

These provinces are also expected to see the largest corrections; Dejardins says housing prices could drop between 18 to 20 per cent.

The Prairies and Newfoundland and Labrador saw the smallest pandemic-era spikes in housing prices. These provinces rely heavily on oil, and crude prices took a nosedive in the early months of the pandemic. Home prices in these regions are only expected to fall between two to 10 per cent by December 2023, the Desjardins report says.

B.C.’s home prices are also expected to fall 15 per cent, closely mirroring the national average, while prices in Quebec will fall 12 per cent thanks to its “much greater housing affordability and less overvalued market,” the report states.

Ontario’s home prices are expected to decline 18 per cent, but these drops will vastly differ across regions. Much like the Maritimes, the communities within a few hours drive from Toronto saw home prices jump 70 per cent between December 2019 and February 2022 as many Canadians began to work from home. Desjardins says outside of the Greater Toronto Area, home prices could fall 20 per cent, with the biggest declines expected in Bancroft, Chatham Kent and Windsor-Essex.

With files from CTV National News Parliament Hill Correspondent Kevin Gallagher.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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