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How a Biden or Trump win could weigh on cross-border investment – BNN

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The U.S. elections results will likely impact Canadian firms and investors regardless of who wins, with some experts warning proposed tax hikes from former vice president Joe Biden and concerns over foreign investment restrictions under U.S. President Donald Trump are among the top risks.

“Taxes will have a profound effect on U.S. public equity markets and likely private equity markets too,” according to Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors.

Ablin, who also served as chief investment officer at BMO Harris Bank for almost two decades, cautions U.S. firms that have benefited from Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 could likely see a large tax bill under Biden. 

Biden has campaigned on raising the corporate tax rate to 28 per cent from 21 per cent, taxing companies who move U.S. operations offshore, and has proposed doubling the tax rate for corporate foreign income gains to 21 per cent. He has also pledged to raise taxes on capital gains for high-net-worth individuals. 

The impact of these tax hikes could weigh on firm valuations and business sentiment, Ablin says.  However, he notes that to enact these types of measures, Biden will need a Democratic Senate.

When it comes to M&A, Curtis Cusinato, partner at the law firm Bennett Jones, who is the co-head of the mergers and acquisitions practice, believes activity in Canada will remain robust regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.

In the case of a Biden win, Cusinato anticipates heightened activity in renewable energies, while he expects consolidation in Canada’s oil-and-gas sector to continue under either candidate. 

“In terms of cross-border deals, there will probably be more activity in the private equity side, or financial buyer side,” Cusinato said, in reference to both candidates.

Private equity activity between the two countries should be healthy for the next four years, given the cost of cheap money in a low-interest rate environment, says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. 

According to the Canadian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association, private equity activity in Canada was up 33 per cent in the first half of 2020, compared to the same time last year despite the pandemic.  

However, Tal says tensions between China and the U.S. would likely continue under both Biden and Trump, which would ultimately lead to reduced diversification options for Canada in terms of private investment – and would increase the country’s dependence on the U.S.

“Ironically, no matter who wins the election, Canada’s investment reliance on the U.S. will rise, not fall,” Tal said, adding that could be offset by more activity in Europe.

For Elaine Kunda, an experienced venture capitalist who is a managing partner at Disruption Ventures, the biggest question mark for Canadian investors is what would happen with investment regulations if Trump were to stay in power.

Kunda is concerned about how the current administration will choose to move forward with tightening foreign investment into the U.S. – a threat she says Canadian investors have feared before.

“It’s almost as if having a limb chopped off for Canada if deeper investment regulations in the U.S. were to persist,” Kunda says.​

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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