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How bad will Canada's COVID-19 recession be? – CBC.ca

Published

4 years ago

March 27, 2020

The black swan has landed.

The novel coronavirus pandemic is well underway worldwide, but it wasn’t until this month that Canadians started coming to grips with the economic pain it can bring, in addition to its heavy human toll.

Economists are struggling to come up with best guesses as to what might be coming. There’s still a lot that they — and we — don’t know. But the picture they’re painting for Canada’s financial future is already bleak.

GDP could significantly contract

At a minimum, the Conference Board of Canada is assuming that most industries across the country will be essentially shut down for at least six weeks.

If they take an optimistic view and assume that’s enough to contain the outbreak, even that short term pain will make a major dent in the country’s total output, a metric known as the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP.

Should this relatively mild scenario come to pass, Canada’s economy would eke out a tiny 0.3 per cent growth for 2020 as a whole as things ramp up in the latter half of the year. That’s far from booming — Canada’s economy grew by 1.6 per cent last year, for example — but it’s preferable to other alternatives.

Retail workers have been laid off in droves this month as lockdowns have caused a dramatic reduction in demand for the consumer goods they sell. (Matias Delacroix/The Associated Press)

Under a more pessimistic scenario, the board sees lockdowns and quarantines stretching for up to six months, until August. If that happens, the GDP hit would be massive — an annualized contraction rate of 9.6 per cent in the second quarter, which is worse than what we saw in the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. The economy shrank at an annual pace of 8.7 per cent at its worst stage, in early 2009 before rebounding starting in the spring.

“Brace yourself for some horrible data in the near-term, as there’s little doubt that the second quarter will produce some painful and likely historic figures on … economic contraction,” the economics team at TD Bank said in a note to investors.

Joblessness fears escalate

Economists tend to focus on GDP in their modelling, but when you ask Canadian workers how they think the economy is doing, they tend to focus on whether they have jobs that pay the bills.

It already looks like the recession caused by COVID-19 will be one for the record books when it comes to joblessness.

In any given week, Canada gets about 45,000 claims for jobless benefits, according to the economics team at TD Bank.

But the numbers for March 16-22 came in at more than 20 times that, with 927,000 Canadians tossed out of work in a single week.

David MacDonald, an economist with Ottawa think-tank the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said those numbers are likely just the start.

“The situation is still moving rapidly: people who may have been employed and surveyed on Monday could easily have been laid off by Wednesday,” he said. “It’s likely not until the April data is collected and released at the start of May that we will see the full picture of what happened in the second half of March.”

By the time all is said and done, MacDonald thinks roughly two million Canadians will at least temporarily lose their jobs in the current panic. That would cause the jobless rate to spike to more than 13 per cent.

TD’s forecast is only slightly more positive, predicting the rate to rise to nearly 12 per cent before hopefully levelling off to about half that by the end of the year.

But that’s only if the unprecedented steps being taken now do any good.

“If fiscal and monetary policies prove successful, and social distancing tactics gradually ease, the unemployment rate should level off after one to two months and quite possibly fall just as fast if workers are called back to work,” the bank said.

The extreme measures being deployed right now underline the fundamental economic paradox of COVID-19.

Catch-22 for the economy

The cure for the disease may be widespread shutdowns and social distancing efforts, but that underlines a fundamental paradox of the disease: the cure for the virus is precisely what makes the economy even sicker.

At least Canada’s jobless rate was close to a record low before all this started.

Even officials in Ottawa are willing to admit they’re expecting a record-setting flood of job losses to hit home, and soon.

“We have enormous job losses right now,” Finance Minister Bill Morneau told the Senate on Wednessday. “We hope and expect it will be temporary.”

The border between Canada and the U.S. has been shut to all but essential travel in an attempt to get the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 under control. (Alex Filipe/Reuters)

Not everyone is sure they will be.

The Canadian Federation Of Independent Business says its monthly measure of small business confidence fell to the lowest level in its 32-year history this week. Normally. a reading of 65 suggests an economy that’s basically operating close to its full potential. But the CFIB’s gauge fell to a record low of 30.8 in March. That’s lower than the 39 it hit in the depths of the 2009 financial crisis.

Roughly 50 per cent of small businesses say they expect to lose workers this year. Only five per cent are planning to expand, according to the CFIB’s small business barometer.

“March 2020 has turned out to be a month like no other in Canada’s economic history,” said Ted Mallett, CFIB’s chief economist.

The good news?

If there’s good news in these bleak numbers, it may be that the depth and breadth of the slowdown may be so sharp and sudden that it can’t help but spur a big rebound.

This recession is looking to be what economists described as “V-shaped” — meaning one that plunges quickly down and then quickly back up the other side. That differs from a “U-shaped,” which is slower and less dramatic in both directions, or even a dreaded “L-shaped” recession where the economy falls off a sudden cliff and never bounces back to its previous level.

New visitors to Canada, like this woman at Vancouver’s airport last week, are being asked to quarantine themselves for 14 days. (Jennifer Gauthier/Bloomberg)

Doug Porter at Bank of Montreal notes that numerous countries have been through economic shocks as bad as the Canadian economy’s current one. And they all emerged stronger on the other side.

Mexico’s peso crisis of 1995, Russia’s debt default in 1998 and South Korea the previous year during the Asian currency crisis all saw those economies shrink by more than 20 per cent.

“In all three cases, activity bounced and forcefully within two quarters,” Porter says.

“All different conditions, true,” Porter said. “But very rapid rebounds from hard stops have and can be done.”

Stocks may have hit bottom

If a rebound is coming, it’s likely to be fast. And stock market investors are tentatively showing signs of believing that could be the case. Since falling to its lowest level in more than a decade on March 23, the TSX has quietly jumped back up almost 20 per cent since then, including its best day in more than 43 years on Tuesday.

Stock markets tend to peak before recessions start but they also tend to bottom before they end, Manulife Investment Management said in a note to clients on Thursday. Which means anyone willing to buy in when things look this gloomy could be getting in on the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

“The economic data will get precipitously worse over the next month but don’t bother looking at that, it will only confirm what we already know,” the money manager said. “Rather, we believe now is the time to focus on the market fundamentals and start to take advantage of the valuation opportunities across asset classes as they present themselves.”

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Former receiver Green part of Canadian Football Hall of Fame’s 2024 class

Published

16 mins ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

For over a decade, S.J. Green was the enemy of Hamilton Tiger-Cats fans.

He should receive a warmer reception Saturday when recognized as a member of the Canadian Football Hall of Fame. Then again . . .

“I’ll be honest, if I get a boo or two I won’t be surprised,” Green said with a chuckle. “It’s fun, I’m looking forward to everything that comes with this weekend.”

Joining Green in the Class of 2024 are former players Chad Owens, Weston Dressler, Vince Goldsmith and Marvin Coleman. Former CFL coach Ray Jauch and amateur football icon Ed Laverty (posthumously) were named as builders.

The seven were scheduled to be formally inducted Friday night, and then honoured Saturday at halftime of the Hamilton-Ottawa game at Tim Hortons Field. Green now fully appreciates the magnitude of the honour.

“Being here and getting to see some of the other inductees has been the ground-breaking moment for me where it’s actually starting to set in, that it’s a real thing,” Green said. “To put it into the shortest phrase I can, it’s football eternity.

“Not everyone gets to play the game at a professional level … to be a part of this brotherhood and statistically elite group is amazing and very humbling.”

The six-foot-three, 216-pound Green was a fluid receiver with Montreal (2007-16) and Toronto (2017-19). Green, 39, registered 716 catches for 10,222 yards with 60 TDs.

He suffered a serious knee injury early in 2016 but registered career highs in catches (104) and yards (1,462) the next season with Toronto. The Argos would win the Grey Cup, Green’s third (2009-10 with Montreal).

Green’s pro career ended in the XFL in 2020 as the CFL didn’t play that season due to the global pandemic. However, Green’s contract was abruptly terminated when the league suspended operations.

He retired in 2022 after signing a one-day contract with Montreal. Green, who owns and operates a landscape business in Tampa, said his transition to life after football wasn’t seamless.

“I went through a period … I don’t want to call it depression but I don’t know what else to call it, where it was just hard to watch the CFL game,” Green said. “I felt like I didn’t get to end it how I truly wanted.

“I miss the game still to this day and it was hard to get over but eventually you grow up, right? This (induction) makes all the time worth it, it feels right.”

Green also appreciates being inducted with Owens. Both began their CFL careers as practice-roster players with Montreal.

“That makes it more special,” Green said. “We both came in from the perspective of being practice-squad guys, having to prove ourselves to get on the field.

“Unfortunately, Chad had to leave Montreal to show the league who he was as a player and person while I was able to stay in Montreal and reap the same benefits. To watch him go to Toronto and become the player he was made it all come full circle. It’s very rewarding to go in with Chad.”

The five-foot-eight, 180-pound Owens, dubbed The Flyin’ Hawaiian, spent 10 seasons with Montreal (2009), Toronto (2010-15), Hamilton (2016, 2018) and Saskatchewan (2017). He was a four-time all-star, the league’s top special-teams player (2010) and its outstanding performer (2012).

Owens, 42, claimed his first Grey Cup ring with Montreal. He earned a second with Toronto in 2012.

Owens recorded 521 career catches for 6,217 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also had 4,027 punt-returns yards (11-yard average, five TDs) and 5,479 kickoff-returns yards, amassing 16,698 combined yards.

Dressler, 39, played with Saskatchewan (2008-15) and Winnipeg (2016-18), registering 715 catches for 10,026 yards and 61 TDs. The five-foot-seven, 168-pound Bismarck, N.D., native was the CFL’s top rookie in ’08 and a two-time all-star who made two Grey Cup appearances, winning in ’13 in Regina with the Riders.

Goldsmith, 65, was a dominant defensive lineman with Saskatchewan (1981-83, 1988-90), Toronto (1984) and Calgary (1985-87). He was the CFL’s top rookie in 1981 with 17 sacks then posted a career-best 20 two years later.

Goldsmith had 10 or more sacks eight times and finished with 130.5 (eighth all-time). He won a Grey Cup in ’89 with Saskatchewan.

Coleman, 52, was another dual threat. The five-foot-nine, 170-pound cornerback played with Calgary (1994-2000) and Winnipeg (2001-03) and was a three-time league all-star with 28 interceptions (six return TDs) and 538 tackles.

Coleman stands fourth all-time in punt-return yards (5,211), seventh in kickoff-returns yards (11,545) and scored seven return TDs. He played in four Grey Cups, winning twice with Calgary.

Jauch, 86, played in the ’59 Rose Bowl as a running back with Iowa and was an AFL first-round pick by Buffalo, but opted for Winnipeg.

He suffered a career-ending torn Achilles in Winnipeg’s ’61 Grey Cup win over Hamilton. Jauch became Edmonton’s running back coach in 1966 before being promoted to head coach in 1970.

He served as head coach with Edmonton (1970-76), Winnipeg (1978-82) and Saskatchewan (1994-95). He recorded 127 regular-season wins (sixth all-time) and in ’75 led Edmonton to its first Grey Cup win since 1956.

Jauch was the 1980 CFL coach of the year.

Laverty served as president of the Ottawa Nepean touch football league from 1964 to 2015. He held a similar post with the Ontario Touch Football League for over 10 years and helped launch Touch Football Canada.

Laverty was inducted into the Ottawa Sports Hall of Fame in 2014.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Ticats host Redblacks in important East Division contest for both teams

Published

25 mins ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

HAMILTON – For Scott Milanovich and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, what’s understood need not be discussed.

Hamilton (3-9) hosts Ottawa (8-3-1) on Saturday afternoon in an important East Division matchup for both teams. The Ticats enter weekend action six points behind third-place Toronto (6-6) while the Redblacks can clinch their first post-season berth since 2018 with a victory.

And with Toronto visiting the B.C. Lions (7-6) on Friday night, Hamilton will have a clearer indication of its situation Saturday.

But Milanovich, in his first season as Hamilton’s head coach, has steadfastly maintained his club’s most pressing duty is to win the next game on its schedule.

“There’s too many games left, we’re too far away to start thinking about these things,” he said. “I certainly don’t think I have to impress upon (Ticats players) the importance of this game.

“They’re well aware of it.”

Ottawa won the first meeting of the season 24-22 at TD Place on June 30. Before that, though, Hamilton had won 10 straight over the Redblacks.

Hamilton comes off a bye week following its 31-28 Labour Day win over Toronto on Sept. 2. That gave the Ticats the season series with the two teams slated to meet once more (Sept. 20 at BMO Field).

The reality is Hamilton will need help to overtake Toronto for third and reach the CFL postseason. Ottawa, on the other hand, controls its playoff fate entering Saturday’s contest.

The Redblacks are 2-1 within the East Division but 2-3 away from TD Place. Hamilton is 2-3 versus its conference rivals and just 2-4 at Tim Hortons Field.

Veteran Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 347 yards and two TDs in the Labour Day win. He’ll start against Ottawa even though youngster Taylor Powell came off the injured list after suffering a head injury in the Ticats’ 47-22 home win over Edmonton on Aug. 17.

Mitchell has a career record of 10-3-2 against Ottawa. And over the Ticats’ last two games, receiver Tim White has 13 catches for 314 yards (24.2-yard average) and two TDs.

With the bye week, Hamilton will play 12 days after its rivalry win over Toronto. Ideally, the Ticats would’ve been able to ride the momentum of that victory into the following week but Mitchell said during a long CFL regular season players take their downtime whenever it comes.

“Yeah, I definitely think guys wanted to build off this momentum,” he said. “We still will but we also know momentum is very subject to the moment.

“You might have momentum going into a game but they feel the same way and that all changes basically after the first kickoff.”

Rookie running back Greg Bell will make a fifth start and fourth straight ahead of veteran James Butler. The six-foot, 200-pound American has rushed for 204 yards and three TDs on 33 carries (6.2-yard average) in his last three contests while adding 11 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown.

The five-foot-nine, 210-pound Butler ran for 1,116 yards last season, his first with Hamilton. And over eight contests in 2024, Butler rushed for 440 yards and a TD on 92 carries (4.8-yard average) while also recording 37 receptions for 312 yards and a touchdown.

“I know what it looks like, this is not an indictment on James Butler whatsoever,” Milanovich said. “He’s a good back.

“I just felt like we wanted Greg’s juice out there a little bit.”

Milanovich said Butler and Bell are very different players.

“James is more of a power runner, the first guy is not going to bring him down,” Milanovich said. “James is an elite pass protector and also a good receiver.

“He (Bell) is explosive … he’s kind of a slasher. When he does see the hole he hits it and he’s a threat receiving. Certainly, there are things he needs to continue to work on but he’s a threat out there, he’s somebody guys have to worry about.”

At first glance, an easy solution would seem to be having both players in the lineup. But Milanovich said it’s not that simple.

“It’s just it’s hard right now with where we’re at with the roster,” he said. “It’s hard to get another American on who’s not going to play a major role offensively or defensively.”

Bell will make his second appearance versus Ottawa, running for 52 yards on 13 carries back in June. And Bell isn’t getting preoccupied with the importance of Saturday’s contest.

“No pressure,” he said. “We’ve all been doing this our whole lives so it’s just football.

“Just run hard, follow my blockers. If they open a hole I’m going to hit it hard.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Longtime AD and 2-time national champion baseball coach Tanner to switch roles at South Carolina

Published

26 mins ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Ray Tanner is stepping down as South Carolina’s athletic director after more than 12 seasons, he said Friday.

Tanner, a two-time national champion baseball coach for the Gamecocks, took over as head of the department in 2012 following his team’s third straight trip to the College World Series. The 66-year-old announced his intentions at a meeting of the school’s board of trustees.

Tanner will remain athletic director until his successor arrives. Tanner will then transition to become athletics director emeritus and senior advisor to the president, focusing on fundraising and community engagement.

“There was going to be a time” to change, Tanner said. “When I coached baseball, I didn’t leave the baseball program because I didn’t think it was good anymore to become the athletic director, it was time. And I knew it was getting close to time in this role as well.”

A national search for a new athletic director will begin at the end of November, university president Michael Amiridis said.

Tanner’s tenure has had its highs and lows.

Women’s basketball has won three national titles under coach Dawn Staley in 2017, 2022 and, most recently, 2024. And while Tanner was still baseball coach when Staley came on board before the 2008-09 season, he helped keep her with the Gamecocks despite other outside opportunities.

Tanner has hired two full-time football coaches over his 12 years as the program has tried to make strides in the difficult Southeastern Conference.

Will Muschamp served from 2017 until his dismissal before the end of the 2020 season, going 28-30 overall and 17-22 in the SEC.

Current coach Shane Beamer was hired in December 2020 and has had two winning seasons in his first three years. The Gamecocks (2-0, 1-0 SEC) face No. 16 LSU (1-1) at home on Saturday.

Tanner said he was honored to be at South Carolina for nearly three decades and the chance to continue in a different role.

Amiridis was reluctant to let Tanner go as athletic director when the two began chatting about his successor. But Amiridis was pleased to have Tanner remain as athletic director emeritus and a presidential advisor with a focus on fundraising and community engagement.

“I am glad to see he’s continuing on in a role with the university and his willingness to do that,” said Board of Trustees chairman Thad Westbrook. “Ray, he doesn’t have a degree from South Carolina, but there’s no one who loves our university more.”

Tanner came to South Carolina in 1996 as baseball coach and went on to make six trips to the College World Series. The Gamecocks won it all in 2010 and 2011 and reached the final series in 2012 before missing a three-peat against Arizona.

A short time later, Tanner was named athletic director after Hyman left for Texas A&M.

Tanner said his successor would need to be “nimble” in navigating the new, rapidly changing world of college athletics.

Amiridis said he would look for an athletic director with experience who had a similar respect for athletics as Tanner.

Tanner said he will not be closely involved in picking the next athletic director.

“I’m gratefully for the time that I’ve been able to spend in South Carolina and the opportunity moving forward,” he said. “We have a great place, we have wonderful people and I’m excited to remain in a capacity that’s going to be new to me, but certainly will energize me in a way that I haven’t experienced in a number of years.”

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