How Biden and Trump Pollsters See the Politics of the Supreme Court Fight - New York Magazine | Canada News Media
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How Biden and Trump Pollsters See the Politics of the Supreme Court Fight – New York Magazine

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Photo: Fred Schilling/Collection of the Supreme Court of the United States/Getty Images

John Anzalone was having a rare evening off from the presidential race, going out to a socially distanced outdoor dinner with his wife and another couple near his home in Montgomery, Alabama. He was already enjoying his first Paloma of the evening when the phone rang, and rang, and rang. He tried to ignore it but couldn’t. When he picked up, the caller on the line told him the news that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was dead at 87.

Anzalone, the chief pollster and a senior adviser for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, felt his heart sink. He was saddened by the news of a liberal lion of the court passing away and concerned that a presidential race that has seen his client maintain a consistent lead in the high single digits might suddenly be thrown into disarray.

But he also knew reporters would be calling all weekend to ask if this was going to be the earthquake that would shake up a race that had been stable since the spring — even as a pandemic killed 200,000 Americans and left segments of the economy in tatters. This supposed seismic event was coming on the heels of other seismic events: violent protests rocking Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Trump calling for “Law and Order” and tagging Democrats as allies of antifa. Anzalone’s phone burned up during those weeks, too, and the result was a presidential race that had tightened by only half a percentage point at the most.

“This doesn’t change the fundamentals of this race,” he said. “It just changes the headline.”

In my conversations with nearly a dozen pollsters and strategists for both parties working on the presidential race and on tight Senate races around the country, this was the consensus view. In the waning days of a presidential race that is already moving at a million miles an hour, the prospect of Trump seating a sixth conservative justice over Democratic objections is unlikely to hurt or help either side very much.

“I still think the country is going to be consumed by coronavirus, by the recovery, by the economy, by jobs,” said John McLaughlin, a pollster for Donald Trump. “This is on the agenda, and I think it is going to consume Washington, but I think people are a lot more interested in other things.”

Still, in a tight race — and despite Biden’s national polling lead, several pathways remain for Trump to eke out a win in the Electoral College — even small advantages can matter in big ways. Back in 2018, after Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy retired and Brett Kavanaugh was named to be his replacement, more than 20 million Americans tuned in as Kavanaugh tried to fend off allegations of sexual assault. Trump and the Republicans turned the confirmation hearings into a rallying cry about how unfair the news media and the Democrats were. The blowback, many Democrats believe, helped them flip suburban House districts around the country en route to a 41-seat House majority, but it also, they say, helped Republicans flip Senate seats held by Democrats in conservative states like South Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri by convincing GOP-leaning voters to come home.

This has been the Republicans’ play for most of the Trump era: finding a culture-war wedge that can excite the base. It’s a difficult maneuver to pull off with a center-left electorate, but in 2016 it was enough for Trump to win an Electoral College victory despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million, and enough to flip three Senate seats in 2018 despite a Democratic-wave election.

And Trump is making the same play, his advisers and other unaffiliated Republicans say, hoping that naming another conservative to the bench will ignite both Democratic and Republican backlashes.

“Trump needs a unified base. He has understood that since day one, and everything you see him doing now [by quickly moving to name a Ginsburg replacement] is in service to that,” said Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster. “You look in a lot of states where Republican [Senate candidates] are performing below their fundamentals — Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina — and they need these Trump voters to come out for them.”
National polls show most voters would prefer that the Senate wait to confirm the next Supreme Court justice until after the election. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found that 62 percent held this view, while just 23 percent thought the seat should be filled by the current president and Senate. And the prospect of Trump naming Ginsburg’s successor has brought a torrent of money into Democratic coffers. ActBlue, the Democrats’ online fundraising arm, received more than $91 million in little more than the first day after Ginsburg’s death and looks set to double that amount by the beginning of next week.

Still, Republicans say that any time the conversation can be dominated by a Supreme Court fight, they benefit. Polls that show Trump naming Ginsburg’s successor as unpopular are that way because, for many voters, this means replacing Trump with Ginsburg; once a new justice is named, especially if she’s a camera-ready woman like the leading candidates, Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa, voters will have another figure to latch on to, one they don’t want to see dragged by Democrats on the Judiciary Committee or by the media, according to Brad Todd, a Republican strategist working on Senate races in North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona.

“It is going to be about the issues; it is going to be about the judge,” Todd said. “You take suburban Republican women who don’t like Trump and didn’t want to vote for him, and when the media attacks Amy Coney Barrett over her faith or over the fact that she has seven children, they are going to see it as an attack on them.”

Democratic strategists say that is nonsense and not borne out by the data. Trump’s numbers have hardly moved in four years, and even in states where Trump is popular, Republican Senate candidates are often running behind him. Over the next six weeks, Democrats intend to show that the willingness of GOP senators to abandon previous pledges not to vote on a Supreme Court nominee in a president’s final year in office is exactly what people don’t like about Republican senators: that they are craven politicians and Trump toadies who don’t stand up for their states’ interests.

“Look at South Carolina,” said Jef Pollock, a Democratic pollster working on nine competitive Senate races across the country. “You have a guy in Lindsey Graham, who has been consistently underperforming in the polls relative to Trump. And why is that? It’s because that guy is full of shit, and the voters know it. Voters — and I’m talking even Republican voters that are going to vote for Trump — say they aren’t voting for Graham because they see him as phony. I don’t see how watching him lick Donald Trump’s boots over the next 40 days is really going to help his cause.”

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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