How can investors spot the next SVB? | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

How can investors spot the next SVB?

Published

 on

SVB’s share price collapsed in a single day and shareholders were wiped out, providing a nasty example of the biggest risk in holding an individual stock.Trifonenko/iStockPhoto / Getty Images

If you didn’t own shares in Silicon Valley Bank prior to its failure last week, you dodged a bullet. But can you dodge the next one?

The bank’s share price collapsed in a single day and shareholders were wiped out, providing a nasty example of the biggest risk in holding an individual stock: It can die. Fast.

There were plenty of reasons for the SVB collapse, but they may not have been obvious to the small investor – or any investor for that matter – before the crisis exploded.

SVB was a lender to the venture capital ecosystem, and tech startups have struggled over the past year as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in a battle against inflation. This focus on a single sector stands out from more diversified lenders.

The bank also had an odd approach to deposits: It invested the money in long-duration securities, including long-term mortgage-backed securities. When these assets fell in value as the Fed raised interest rates, a wave of problems emerged.

As depositors withdrew money, SVB was forced to sell bonds at a loss to raise cash to meet redemptions. It then tried to issue additional shares to shore up capital. A full-fledged bank run followed, exacerbated by the fact that about 90 per cent of its deposits were uninsured – higher than a US$250,000 maximum for federal deposit insurance. That is a ratio well above that of most other banks – and, well, SVB is now no more.

These red flags may have put off some investors who knew their way around bank balance sheets, were well aware of SVB’s strong connection to the volatile tech sector or were just plain worried about the deteriorating economic climate.

Last year, as interest rates shot higher and technology companies floundered, SVB’s share price declined from about US$733 at the start of 2022 to about US$230 in December. The slide marked a dramatic shift from gains of 75 per cent in 2021, and it meant that a lot of investors were bailing out.

At the same time, short sellers – nimble investors who bet that a stock will decline – became active in SVB. A year ago, in March, the number of shares sold short in comparison with the total share count, was just 1.4 per cent, according to Nasdaq. But this short interest jumped to 6.7 per cent by the end of 2022.

But were any of these actions flashing a warning sign that SVB was heading for failure? Maybe not.

Despite the diminished share price, the collective wisdom of the market valued SVB earlier this month, prior to the collapse, at nearly US$16-billion, based on the value of outstanding shares. The share price actually rallied in January amid bets that the Fed was nearly finished raising rates.

There was also SVB’s impressive track record to consider.

It had been around for decades, surviving the bursting of the tech-stock bubble in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis. And it had found a niche among startups and tech entrepreneurs that delivered enviable deposit growth when times were good.

“When others left the Valley in 2001/2002, SVB was the bedrock and played an instrumental role in the thousands of successful tech startups seen over the years,” Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note.

There were plenty of signals, then, tempting investors who like to buy stocks when they are cheap and unpopular, hoping for a big rebound. But that’s what makes SVB, and stocks like it, so dangerous.

The best lesson here for risk-conscious investors: Focus primarily on baskets of stocks that spread out the risk of any one of them blowing up. Yes, you’ll likely be saddled with a lot of underperformers, but they probably won’t harm your portfolio in any meaningful way, and you’ll get the winners too.

We live in a golden age in which exchange-traded funds offer exposure to just about any sector, strategy or index you can think of – from value stocks, growth stocks, banks and real estate investment trusts all the way up to emerging markets, developed markets and the S&P 500 Index.

If small banks are your thing, there’s even the iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF, for example. It’s not doing well this year, but it’s no SVB.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

Published

 on

 

Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version