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Canada is entering a new phase of the pandemic as restrictions are set to ease across much of the country. But avoiding the mistakes of the past and keeping the public onside will be extremely challenging as Omicron continues to hammer our health-care system.
Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba pushed aggressively to reopen last February when the highly transmissible Alpha and Beta variants were taking off, setting the stage for a devastating third wave that led to months of reimposed restrictions in hard-hit regions.
A year later, many provinces are again forging ahead with reopening plans in the face of an even more devastating variant, while setting somewhat ambitious end dates at a time when record-high hospitalizations have just begun to show signs of peaking.
While our protection from vaccinations and prior infections may put us in a better position, infectious disease experts say Canada should take a cautious approach to reopening to avoid falling into the same traps of previous waves.
British Columbia and Ontario will begin easing limits on indoor gatherings, gyms, bars, restaurants and other venues on Monday, while Manitoba announced Friday it will extend its measures for at least another week and Quebec remains weeks away from reopening.
And while Alberta is waiting until hospitalization rates drop before beginning to lift its restrictions, Premier Jason Kenney joined Ontario Premier Doug Ford this week in boldly predicting the lifting of all COVID-19 public health measures by mid-March.
But if the last two years of the pandemic have taught us anything, it’s that the virus doesn’t work on our schedule. And while we may feel like we’re done with COVID-19, it’s not necessarily done with us.
Ontario eyes gradual reopening as experts warn Omicron isn’t over yet
8 days ago
Duration 2:00
Ontario is among the provinces eyeing steps toward reopening as COVID-19 hospitalizations level off, but health officials and experts are warning there is plenty of pandemic still to come. 2:00
Pandemic ‘chess game’ continues with Omicron
A subvariant of Omicron known as BA.2 is showing early signs of spread in Canada, with more than 100 cases detected to date. Denmark’s leading public health institute found it could be 1.5 times more infectious — highlighting the threat of the rapidly mutating virus.
“The greatest opportunity for mutations and variants to arise is when you get lots of transmission events and the virus has got opportunities to replicate itself more,” said Dr. Susy Hota, an infectious disease specialist at the University Health Network in Toronto.
“So it’s kind of this awful cycle that you get stuck in, where you have these massive surges of, say, Omicron this time around that hit so many people, and that allows for further mutations to happen and then from that may arise additional variants in the future.”
Hota said that while BA.2 remains at low levels in Canada right now, it’s important to keep an eye on its spread in other countries and ramp up our tracking efforts here, in order to make sure we detect the subvariant quickly and are prepared for further spread.
“This is a chess game — we make a move, and it makes a move, and then we make a move,” said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious diseases physician and associate professor at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.
“The whole thing is — and always has been — a strategy game against a foe that has more tricks up its sleeve than we can even imagine.”
WATCH | Why Omicron could signal the pandemic’s end — with plenty of caveats:
Omicron brings hopeful signs of pandemic’s end with plenty of caveats
11 days ago
Duration 5:01
There is some optimism the Omicron wave could signal the beginning of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts also point out many caveats because it’s unclear how long immunity lasts and if it will protect against future variants. 5:01
Saxinger said health officials should be communicating transparently with Canadians on what benchmarks need to be met for further reopening, as well as bringing the public onboard with what’s informing decisions to get more buy-in if things take a turn for the worse.
“There could be another curveball. A lot of people are anticipating that after this Omicron surge is over, it will be a very different landscape and I think that that’s very plausible — but I would not promise it,” Saxinger said.
“It’s just a flat-out mistake to make any promises right now. I mean, just promise transparency, promise being reactive, promise to weigh the right things — but don’t promise what will actually happen.”
Dr. David Naylor, who led the federal inquiry into Canada’s national response to the 2003 SARS epidemic and now co-chairs the federal government’s COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, said provinces need to “move carefully with reopening” to avoid reversing trends.
“We all are totally fed up with living in limbo,” he said. “However, it’s a potentially self-defeating strategy if the more severe measures become necessary because we didn’t wait long enough for the latest wave to recede.”
Given that PCR testing has completely dropped off a cliff in Canada, Naylor said officials must look at leading indicators, like wastewater surveillance, and lagging indicators, like hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths, to get a handle on when to lift restrictions.
Ambulance paramedics unload at Toronto Western Hospital on Jan. 10. Many provinces are forging ahead with reopening plans at a time when record-high COVID-19 hospitalizations have just begun to show signs of peaking. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
Naylor said while public morale and patience has “eroded” and could lead to a “fatalistic sense” that we should just “give up and do the minimum,” that mindset won’t help control the virus.
“Those misperceptions and sentiments, if they become truly widespread, will make premature reopening more likely,” he said.
“I’d be inclined to go steady and slow, looking forward to some seasonal relief, and relying on increases in background immunity from vaccines and mild infections to get us to better weather — literally and figuratively.”
Can high population immunity fend off future waves?
As restrictions begin to lift across Canada in the coming days and weeks, time will tell if our current measures, coupled with the collective immunity levels from vaccines, boosters and infections, will protect us from another COVID-19 surge.
“We certainly have a greater degree of community-level immunity through first, second and third doses of vaccination and through recovery from infection,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician and member of Ontario’s COVID-19 vaccine task force.
“And we can’t ignore that community-level protection will have some benefits. The question really is now, is that enough to prevent a resurgence of COVID if an aggressive reopening plan is undertaken?”
It’s difficult to predict what the coming weeks will bring as restrictions lift across much of the country, Naylor said. But one optimistic scenario could see smaller waves of highly infectious variants in the future that cause less severe disease due to our immunity levels.
That could mean reaching an endemic state with COVID-19, where the virus circulates at a manageable level, without repeated surges that threaten to overwhelm the health-care system. But that may yet be months or years away.
“There will still be a toll — particularly among vulnerable people with compromised immunity or multi-morbidity, and we have to be ready to respond,” Naylor said.
“But if that succession of smaller waves becomes the trajectory, I think the level of any restrictions imposed could ease and some sense of normalcy will return.”
Whatever the next few weeks may bring, it’s important to remember we’re not out of the woods yet — but the immunity from vaccinations and infections will hopefully put us in a better position to fend off another surge.
“We will have a very high degree of immunity against Omicron: How will that protect us against the next variant? That’s the big question,” said Dr. Irfan Dhalla, a University of Toronto medical professor and a vice-president at the Unity Health hospital network.
“Having seen the devastation of the first wave, the second wave, the third wave, the fourth wave and now the fifth wave, my own bias is toward being as prepared as we possibly can for future waves.”
OTTAWA – Here are some notable quotes from Liberal members of Parliament as they headed into a caucus meeting Wednesday where they are set to debate Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
Comments made after the caucus meeting:
“The Liberal party is strong and united.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
———
“Justin Trudeau is reflecting and he’s standing strong and we’re standing strong as a Liberal party.”
“We as a party recognize that the real threat here is Pierre Poilievre and that’s what we’re fighting for.”
“Trudeau has made very clear that he feels he’s the right choice but he appreciates all of what is being said because he’s reflecting on what is being done across Canada. I respect his decision, whatever that may be.”
Charles Sousa, MP for Mississauga—Lakeshore
———
“We had some open and frank discussions. People are relentlessly focused on serving Canadians and win the next election. This was really a rallying call to win the next election.”
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, MP for Saint Maurice—Champlain
———
“I don’t know how many people spoke, well over 50 I’m sure. They came at this from all angles and now (we’ve) got to go back and process this.
“We’re on a good path.
“It was very respectful. You know, caucus has always had the ability to get into some tough conversations. We did it again today and it went extremely well. Where we land? Who knows? You know we have to go and really process this stuff. But one thing that is absolutely, you know, fundamental is that we are united in the fact that we cannot let that creature from the Conservative party run the country. He would ruin things that people greatly value.”
Ken Hardie, MP for Fleetwood—Port Kells
———
Comments from before the caucus meeting:
“There’s a — what would you call it? Some palace drama going on right now. And that takes us away from the number 1 job, which is focusing on Canadians and focusing on the important policies but also on showing the really clear contrast between our government, our party and Pierre Poilievre.”
Randy Boissonnault, Employment Minister, MP for Edmonton Centre
———
“We’re going to go in there and we’re going to have an excellent discussion and we are going to emerge united.”
Treasury Board President and Transport Minister Anita Anand, MP for Oakville
———
“I think caucus is nervous because of the polling that has been constantly going down in favour of Liberals, and there’s a lot of people who do want to run again. I’m not running again, although I already told the prime minister that. But there are people there that want to run again and they’re nervous because of what polls are saying.”
“He has to start listening.”
Ken McDonald, MP for Avalon
———
“We’re going to have a good caucus meeting. MPs should be free to air their perspectives, I’m sure they will, and we’ll come out of it united.”
Peter Fragiskatos, MP for London North Centre
———
“I have to read the room. There’s all sorts of wheels within wheels turning right now. I’m just going to go in there, I’m going to make my mind a blank and just soak it all in.”
“I’m not going to say anything about (the prime minister) until I have my say in there.”
Ken Hardie, MP for Fleetwood—Port Kells
———
“I wish there was a mechanism for it, yes,” he said, responding to whether he wanted a secret ballot vote in caucus to determine Trudeau’s leadership.
Sean Casey, MP for Charlottetown
———
“The prime minister will always be on my posters and he is welcome in Winnipeg North any time.”
Kevin Lamoureux, MP for Winnipeg North
———
“Absolutely I support the prime minister.”
Yvonne Jones, MP for Labrador
———
“When you look divided, you look weak.”
Judy Sgro, MP for Humber River—Black Creek
———
“I think Pierre Poilievre is absolutely beatable, he’s ripe for the picking with the right vision, the right leadership and the right direction for our party. The Liberal party is an institution in this country. It’s bigger than one person, one leader, and it’s incumbent on us as elected officials to make sure we put the best foot forward.”
Wayne Long, MP for Saint John—Rothesay
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
FREDERICTON – Chief Allan Polchies says he is excited about New Brunswick’s new Liberal provincial government.
Polchies, of St. Mary’s First Nation, says he looks forward to meaningful dialogue with premier-designate Susan Holt after years of tense relations with the outgoing Progressive Conservatives under Blaine Higgs.
He is one of six Wolastoqey Nation chiefs who have filed a land claim for a significant part of the province, arguing treaty rights have not been respected by corporations and governments, both of which have exploited the land for hundreds of years.
The December 2021 court challenge has been a sore point between Indigenous Peoples and the Higgs’s government.
Eight Mi’kmaw communities are also asserting Aboriginal title to land in the province, and they say they hope to work with Holt and her team on “advancing issues that are important to our communities.”
Holt’s campaign didn’t give details on the Liberal government’s position on the Indigenous claims, but she has said she wants to rebuild trust between the province and First Nations.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
OTTAWA – Abousfian Abdelrazik told a court today about the roller-coaster of emotions he experienced during the tense days of early 2009 when he awaited the green light to return to Canada from Sudan.
The Sudanese-born Abdelrazik settled in Montreal as a refugee and became a Canadian citizen in 1995.
During a 2003 visit to his native country to see his ailing mother, he was arrested, imprisoned and questioned about suspected terrorist connections.
Abdelrazik says he was tortured during two periods of detention by the Sudanese intelligence agency.
He is suing the federal government, claiming officials arranged for his arbitrary imprisonment, encouraged his detention by Sudanese authorities and actively obstructed his repatriation to Canada for several years.
In March 2009, he made arrangements to fly home to Canada and asked Ottawa to issue him an emergency passport, but his hopes were dashed — at least temporarily — when the request was turned down.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
