TORONTO —
Though all eyes are on a potential COVID-19 vaccine, experts still warn that the pandemic could worsen before most Canadians are innoculated.
The continued alarm bells, which health officials have been ringing for months, are based off pandemic modelling done by epidemiologists at the Public Health Agency of Canada, who use a mathematical growth model to formulate their projections.
Ten times since April, the federal government has released epidemiological updates on the state of the pandemic. Each update included a short-term forecast of the infection trajectory in the country. More recently, there have also beenlonger-term predictions. CTVNews.ca pulled the numbers to see how the projections compared to the reality on the day in question.
Almost all of the estimates have turned out to be accurate, most often on the higher end of the projected range. Lately, the projections have hinted at a grim course for the pandemic, the Public Health Agency of Canada said in a statement Monday.
“[I]n recent weeks the actual numbers have been greater than the projected numbers, and this indicates that the epidemic is accelerating,” an agency spokesperson wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca.
“Now, more than ever, everyone needs to keep up with public health practices—including physical distancing, handwashing and wearing masks—to reduce their risk of being infected and to reduce the risk of spreading the virus to others.”
In early October and early November, as the second wave of COVID-19 intensified, the projections turned out to be lowballing the course of the pandemic by several thousand cases. Death projections missed the mark four times, first in May and most recently at the end of November. Only in June, as the first wave of the pandemic dropped to a seven-day average of fewer than 800 new cases, were the projections on the lower end of the estimated window.
While the government has stuck to shorter-term projections, it began making longer-term estimates in the fall. In late September, PHAC estimated Canada could exceed 3,000 new infections each day by mid-October. That estimate didn’t play out. By mid-October, health officials logged below 2,500 cases most days,with a seven-day average of about 2,300. Similarly, the agency said cases could exceed 5,000 a day by November,but officials recorded a seven-day average around 3,000 in early November.
Those longer-term forecasts were based on Canadians keeping the same rate of contacts. The agency also provided two other predictions: one in which contacts increased by 20 per cent, and one in which they decreased by 25 per cent. The pandemic has neither spiked or waned in the way projected by those forecasts.
But the long-term estimate for December proved most accurate. On Oct. 30, PHAC estimated that the country could exceed 6,000 daily cases by early December if Canadians maintained their level of contacts. So far this month, officials have recorded more than 6,200 new infections every day,with the exception of Dec. 1 when the country logged 5,330 new cases.
This month, PHAC estimated that Canada could exceed 15,000 reported infections daily by mid-December and 20,000 by the end of the month when people typically gather for the holiday season. In recent days, officials have emphatically discouraged people from gathering with anyone outside their own household for Christmas or other celebrations.
The projections go hand-in-hand with public health advice such as lockdowns and physical distancing, because they aren’t weather forecasts, says Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Canadians can affect the pandemic currents.
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IS THE ‘X’ FACTOR
“If the weather forecast is for rain, that forecast doesn’t change if you take an umbrella with you,” Tuite told CTVNews.ca over the phone earlier this month. “But for infectious diseases, if I tell you that there is going to be a large increase in cases, and you take that information and change your behaviour — you decide not to leave the house, or when you leave the house, you take your mask with you — that actually affects the future.”
While the shorter-term forecasts are less likely to miss the mark, said Tuite, it’s a good thing when projections are wrong, especially in a pandemic when the caseload reality is lower than the prediction.
“That suggests that human behaviour or something else has changed that forecast or potential future,” said Tuite.
Human behaviour is the “X factor,” the piece of the equation that is unknown or unforeseeable, she added, making longer-term projections a particular challenge. Human behaviour won’t have much impact on shorter-term projections that fall within a two-week range or less, because public health interventions typically take at least two weeks to affect the epidemic curve, she said.
That means that even the 20,000 cases per day projected for the end of December may not be the maximum. If holiday gatherings occur, despite authorities’ warnings against them, it will be well into January before infections passed on at those events make their presence felt in the daily totals. On the other hand, if Canadians cut down on their contacts, the situation could rapidly improve.
“We have the ability to change our future, and models are part of that to help people understand where we’re headed and how we can change,” said Tuite. “They’re not inevitable.”
Human behaviour is simply challenging to predict, particularly in such unprecedented times.
“People’s attitudes and risk aversion [have]changed over time,” she said, noting that she couldn’t have predicted in March or April how a sense of “COVID fatigue” would have played into adherence to health protocols. “Those are all things that are going to be captured in terms of the disease dynamic and in terms of the number of cases that we see, but trying to predict that or anticipate that can be really hard.”
EDMONTON – Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his career as the New Jersey Devils closed out their Western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored for the Devils (8-5-2) who have won three of their last four on the heels on a four-game losing skid.
The Oilers (6-6-1) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped.
Calvin Pickard made 13 stops between the pipes for Edmonton.
TAKEAWAYS
Devils: In addition to his goal, Bratt picked up his 12th assist of the young season to give him nine points in his last eight games and now 15 points overall. Nico Hischier remains in the team lead, picking up an assist of his own to give him 16 points for the campaign. He has a point in all but four games this season.
Oilers: Forward Leon Draisaitl was held pointless after recording six points in his previous two games and nine points in his previous four. Draisaitl usually has strong showings against the Devils, coming into the contest with an eight-game point streak against New Jersey and 11 goals in 17 games.
KEY MOMENT
New Jersey took a 2-0 lead on the power play with 3:26 remaining in the second period as Hischier made a nice feed into the slot to Bratt, who wired his third of the season past Pickard.
KEY RETURN?
Oilers star forward and captain Connor McDavid took part in the optional morning skate for the Oilers, leading to hopes that he may be back sooner rather than later. McDavid has been expected to be out for two to three weeks with an ankle injury suffered during the first shift of last Monday’s loss in Columbus.
OILERS DEAL FOR D-MAN
The Oilers have acquired defenceman Ronnie Attard from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for defenceman Ben Gleason.
The 6-foot-3 Attard has spent the past three season in the Flyers organization seeing action in 29 career games. The 25-year-old right-shot defender and Western Michigan University grad was originally selected by Philadelphia in the third round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Attard will report to the Oilers’ AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.
UP NEXT
Devils: Host the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday.
Oilers: Host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, and Kareem Hunt pounded into the end zone from two yards out in overtime to give the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs a 30-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
DeAndre Hopkins had two touchdown receptions for the Chiefs (8-0), who drove through the rain for two fourth-quarter scores to take a 24-17 lead with 4:17 left. But then Kansas City watched as Baker Mayfield led the Bucs the other way in the final minute, hitting Ryan Miller in the end zone with 27 seconds to go in regulation time.
Tampa Bay (4-5) elected to kick the extra point and force overtime, rather than go for a two-point conversion and the win. And it cost the Buccaneers when Mayfield called tails and the coin flip was heads. Mahomes and the Chiefs took the ball, he was 5-for-5 passing on their drive in overtime, and Hunt finished his 106-yard rushing day with the deciding TD plunge.
Travis Kelce had 14 catches for 100 yards with girlfriend Taylor Swift watching from a suite, and Hopkins finished with eight catches for 86 yards as the Chiefs ran their winning streak to 14 dating to last season. They became the sixth Super Bowl champion to start 8-0 the following season.
Mayfield finished with 200 yards and two TDs passing for the Bucs, who have lost four of their last five.
It was a memorable first half for two players who had been waiting to play in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Bucs’ Rachaad White grew up about 10 minutes away in a tough part of Kansas City, but his family could never afford a ticket for him to see a game. He wound up on a circuitous path through Division II Nebraska-Kearney and a California junior college to Arizona State, where he eventually became of a third-round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2022 draft.
Two year later, White finally got into Arrowhead — and the end zone. He punctuated his seven-yard scoring run in the second quarter, which gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead, by nearly tossing the football into the second deck.
Then it was Hopkins’ turn in his first home game since arriving in Kansas City from a trade with the Titans.
The three-time All-Pro, who already had caught four passes, reeled in a third-down heave from Mahomes amid triple coverage for a 35-yard gain inside the Tampa Bay five-yard line. Three plays later, Mahomes found him in the back of the end zone, and Hopkins celebrated his first TD with the Chiefs with a dance from “Remember the Titans.”
Tampa Bay tried to seize control with consecutive scoring drives to start the second half. The first ended with a TD pass to Cade Otton, the latest tight end to shred the Chiefs, and Chase McLaughlin’s 47-yard field goal gave the Bucs a 17-10 lead.
The Chiefs answered in the fourth quarter. Mahomes marched them through the rain 70 yards for a tying touchdown pass, which he delivered to Samaje Perine while landing awkwardly and tweaking his left ankle, and then threw a laser to Hopkins on third-and-goal from the Buccaneers’ five-yard line to give Kansas City the lead.
Tampa Bay promptly went three-and-out, but its defence got the ball right back, and this time Mayfield calmly led his team down field. His capped the drive with a touchdown throw to Miller — his first career TD catch — with 27 seconds to go, and Tampa Bay elected to play for overtime.
UP NEXT
Buccaneers: Host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Darcy Kuemper made 16 saves for his first shutout of the season and 32nd overall, helping the Los Angeles Kings beat the Nashville Predators 3-0 on Monday night.
Adrian Kempe had a goal and an assist and Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala also scored. The Kings have won two of their last three.
Juuse Saros made 24 saves for the Predators. They are 1-2-1 in their last four.
Kopitar opened the scoring with 6:36 remaining in the opening period. Saros denied the Kings captain’s first shot, but Kopitar collected the rebound below the goal line and banked it off the netminder’s skate.
Fiala, a former Predator, made it 2-0 35 seconds into the third.
The Kings held Nashville to just three third-period shots on goal, the first coming with 3:55 remaining and Saros pulled for an extra attacker.
Elsewhere in the NHL on Monday:
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DEVILS 3 OILERS 0
EDMONTON, Alta. (AP) — Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his NHL career, helping the New Jersey Devils close their western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored. The Devils improved to 8-5-2. They have won three of their last four after a four-game skid.
Calvin Pickard made 13 saves for Edmonton. The Oilers had won two straight.
