If you live in Charlottetown, Fredericton or Sarnia and you’re dreaming of a white Christmas – or Hanukkah, or Kwanzaa – keep dreaming.
There have always been places in Canada where snow in December is rare, such as the south coast of British Columbia, but even traditionally snowy cities are seeing increasingly snow-free holidays as the climate heats up.
Between 1960 and 1984, Charlottetown had a 92 per cent chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25. That probability dropped to 52 per cent during the period between 1997 and 2021.
Fredericton went from an 88 per cent chance of snow on the ground Dec. 25 between 1960 and 1984, to a 44 per cent chance between 1996 and 2021. In Sarnia, Ont. the likelihood of snow on the ground Dec. 25 was 84 per cent between 1960 and 1984. Between 1996 and 2021, it was 36 per cent.
These are just some of the numbers Environment and Climate Change Canada’s senior climatologist, David Phillips, crunched for CTVNews.ca in an effort to see how much of a toll climate change has taken on the snowy holidays many Canadians dream about.
“I think one of the real indications of the changing climate right to our face…is the fact that we will see greener Christmases, and also Christmases that have less deep snow,” Phillips told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview on Nov. 17.
“In certain parts of Canada, we’re losing that vision of past Christmases. Where (snow) used to be a reality, it’s more just sort of a dream.”
Climate change is causing average temperatures around the globe to rise, and Canada is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, according to the 2019 Canada’s Changing Climate report. The report, commissioned by Environment and Climate Change Canada, found that annual average temperatures in Canada have increased by 1.7 degrees, or 2.3 degrees in Northern Canada, since 1948.
If 2.3 degrees doesn’t seem like a major increase, a bit of context might shift your perspective.
“From a climate point of view, two-and-a-half degrees difference is like half the difference in temperature between when the last ice age was here, and then when it wasn’t,” Phillips said. “So it’s huge, from a climatological point of view.”
To measure the effect rising temperatures have had on holiday snowfall in Canada, Phillips looked at data gathered at 44 weather stations located across the country during two 25-year periods – 1960 to 1984 and 1997 to 2021.
On average, Canadian cities and towns have seen a 13 per cent decrease in the likelihood of a snowy Dec. 25, from 79 per cent between 1960 and 1984 to 66 per cent between 1997 and 2021. However, that decrease isn’t spread evenly across the country.
While parts of the prairies and northern locations such as Iqaluit, Yellowknife and Whitehorse have recorded little-to-no change in the likelihood of a snowy December, communities on Canada’s East Coast have recorded some of the biggest differences in the country. Snowy holidays have also become increasingly rare in southern Ontario, southern Alberta and British Columbia.
London, Ont., had an 80 per cent chance of snow cover on Dec. 25 from 1960 to 1984. That probability dropped to 48 per cent between 1997 and 2021.Kelowna, B.C.’s probability dropped to 56 per cent from 76 per cent in the same periods, and Medicine Hat, Alta.’s dropped to 52 per cent from 72.
Not only are snowy winter holidays becoming rarer, but the depth of snow on the ground is thinning out as well, Phillips said.
Stick a ruler into Canada back in the 1970s and on Christmas morning, it would often say 15 or 16 (centimetres), whereas now it’s more like 10 or 11,” he said. “So we have lost that frequency and also the amount of snow. But again, it’s very regionally biased.”
Statistically, Timmins, Ont. and Quebec City were still both more than 90 per cent likely to see snow on Dec. 25 as of 2021. But the average depth of that snow had decreased by 22 and 19 centimetres respectively compared to between 1960 and 1984.
Most of the weather stations Phillips collected data from have observed a similar trend, to a lesser extent. For example, Fredericton measured an average snow depth of 21 centimetres on Dec. 25 between 1960 and 1984. Between 1997 and 2021, that depth had thinned to six centimetres.
So how will Canadians experience winter as temperatures continue to rise? For one thing, Phillips said, it will start later and end earlier.
“We are a snowy country, and climate change will still make a snowy and cold country, it’s just that the season will be different, it’ll be shorter,” he said. “So winter may start in mid-January, as opposed to now, and maybe end in early March.”
Additionally, less snow doesn’t mean less precipitation. It just means more mixed precipitation, including rain, freezing rain and sleet. Phillips said this could have financial implications for winter recreation industries in the most affected areas of the country, as well as for any farmers and gardeners who rely on snow to insulate their crops and gardens.
You’ll have more winter rain than snow,” Phillips said. “For example, you won’t see a ski industry in southern Ontario – unless they can make snow, that’ll be their saving grace.”
Culturally, a growing number of Canadians will need to adopt a new vision of the holidays that doesn’t include dashing through the snow, hearing the snow crunch or building a snowman in the meadow and pretending he’s Parson Brown.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.
The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.
Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.
In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.
The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.
With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.
Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.
Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.
He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.
The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.
Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.
He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.
George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.
Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.
In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.
St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.
ON DECK
Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.
The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.
It won’t be an easy assignment.
Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.
“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”
Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”
Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.
After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.
“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”
Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.
“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.
A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.
“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”
But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.
“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”
Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”
“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.
Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.
“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”
While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.
“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”
The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.
“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
