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How Fast Is The Economy Recovering? | FiveThirtyEight – FiveThirtyEight

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For nearly a year, the economy has been on a long, exhausting slog toward post-pandemic “normalcy.” And it isn’t over yet.

This page — which we plan to update every month — will tell us how far we still have to go before the economy is back where it was before the pandemic shut down much of American life.

We have made significant progress, of course: After hitting the highest level of unemployment the country has seen since the Great Depression in April, the unemployment rate has steadily fallen.

But as of this month, the unemployment rate is still 2.8 percentage points higher than it was pre-pandemic.

Change from January 2020 in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

The unemployment rate in January was 6.3 percent, according to the latest jobs report, down from 6.7 percent in December.

Crucially, the recovery isn’t affecting all workers equally. Just as Black and Hispanic communities have struggled with higher rates of infection and death since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, communities of color are continuing to bear the brunt of high unemployment and economic insecurity, even as the overall numbers fall.

A persistent gap

Change from January 2020 in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, by race

Even in good times, Black unemployment often hovers at levels much higher than for white Americans. But the pandemic has exacerbated that stubborn inequality, and now we’re in the midst of a profoundly unequal economic crisis. Low-wage workers — who are disproportionately likely to be Black and Hispanic — have been hardest hit by the pandemic because they generally work in sectors, like retail and hospitality, where their work can’t be done from home. Those workplaces pose significant public health risks in a pandemic, and have been subjected to full or partial shutdowns as infections ebb and flow.

As a result, we’re much closer to economic normalcy in sectors like construction and professional and business services than we are in sectors like leisure and hospitality.

A long way to zero

Change from January 2020 in seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs added or lost for six major private sectors

Some sectors have been able to adjust (more or less) to the realities of the pandemic, but others, like leisure and hospitality and education and health services, have left their workers in a painful no-win situation. They face precarious employment, with temporary furloughs or permanent layoffs always on the horizon, plus the unenviable prospect of going to work every day with the risk of infection hanging over their heads.

These disparities are important to remember because even when employment appears to be approaching pre-pandemic normalcy, a lot of people aren’t part of that economic rebound — and those workers are still disproportionately likely to be people of color, young and low-wage.

Check back next month for an update on how close — or far — we are to the levels of unemployment we saw before the pandemic.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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