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How long can Canadians expect to be social distancing?

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For weeks, health officials across the country have been urging Canadians to practise social distancing and avoid public gatherings in an attempt to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.

The disease caused by the virus — COVID-19 — has infected more than 201,000 people worldwide and killed over 8,000.

In Canada, as of 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday, 569 people had been infected with COVID-19 and eight people had died.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday echoed the advice of health authorities, urging Canadians to practise social distancing, saying the window to control the spread of the disease was closing.

“As much as possible, stay home,” he said. “Don’t go out unless you absolutely have to.”

But how long can Canadians expect to be practising social distancing and is it effective?

Here’s what experts say.

 

How long will Canadians need to practise social distancing?

Dr. Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor and Canada Research Chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said we can expect this to go on until we see a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases.

“What we need to see is that new cases are decreasing over time, but we also want to be conscious that loosening of the social distancing recommendations and restrictions too quickly could result in a resurgence of transmission,” he wrote in an email to Global News.

He said recent models have predicted long periods of time for this outbreak, some greater than 12 months.

“However, there have been arguments that these models don’t take into account additional factors that are implemented to curb transmission,” he wrote.

He said ultimately, there is no “definitive timeline” as the situation will “continue to be dynamic and based on overall trends that can’t be defined within very short periods of time.”

 

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist based out of Toronto General Hospital, told Global News the length of time we spend social distancing is “completely dependent on us.”

 

“It’s completely dependent on how we implement these suggestions,” Bogoch said. “Are we going to actually do what it takes to practise these social distancing measures and truly flatten the curve and mitigate the spread of this infection in the country?

He said if Canadians do practise the social distancing measures, we may start to see the benefits and may be able to “slowly and carefully take our foot off the gas pedal in the coming months.”

“I would say plural, in the coming two-ish or more months,” he said. “Depending on how well we do.”

What’s more, Kindrachuk said the sooner Canadians heed the advice of health authorities and practise social distancing, the sooner it will be over.

“This virus relies on people transmitting it between each other,” he said. “In the absence of vaccines or therapeutics, our greatest defence against this virus is to take away the ability for it to be spread from person to person. This is easier to do when there are fewer overall cases in the community.”

Has it worked elsewhere?

Bogoch said both China and South Korea have experienced “tremendous benefits” from their social distancing policies.

Across China, more than 50 million people were placed under strict quarantine as the virus spread. Travel into and out of cities was cut, and schools and businesses were shuttered as health officials scrambled to contain the disease.

South Korea implemented similar measures in an effort to limit the virus’s spread.

“They’re starting to relax some of their social distancing policies now,” Bogoch said. “Life is slowly returning back to normal.”

He said in both cases, the countries implemented measures for around two and a half months.

“So if we do well, we could be in the same boat,” he said.

Kindrachuk, too, said we have already seen “indications of success” of social distancing in Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore.

“While these are not the only measures that were employed, they appeared to have a central role in curbing transmission,” he said. “China was able to limit the spread as well through massive quarantine procedures in Hubei province as well.”

How dire is the situation in Canada?

On Sunday, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer said the window for Canada to control the spread of the virus and keep it at a level that Canada’s health-care system can manage is closing.

But how much time do we have?

Kindrachuk said that is something “we don’t know.”

 

“Think of this as a hurricane warning without any accompanying radar to give us a timeline of when it will hit,” he said. “We know that the virus will spread across Canada. We don’t know exactly how cases will continue to increase across the country, though we know that they will, given that the virus is here.”

However, he said we do have the opportunity to try and change the total timeline for transmission by practising social distancing, testing and tracing the contacts of those who are infected.

Dr. Craig Janes, a professor at the University of Waterloo School of Public Health and Health Systems, said the situation in Canada is “dire.”

This is one of the complex things socially about the epidemic is that I think for many people we say, ‘Wait a minute, we don’t see many cases. It just doesn’t seem that serious,’” he said. “But based on the information we have from China, from Italy and that sort of thing, it is dire. And we need to be doing all this now.”

 

 

He said what we do now to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 will have an “enormous impact” on reducing the number of people who die, and on the health-care system’s ability to treat those who are sick.

Bogoch said the “ball is in our court” when it comes to limiting the spread of the virus.

“The messaging is clear, there should be no ambiguity on what we should and shouldn’t be doing now as individuals, businesses and also as the government,” he said. “Everyone has a job to do.”

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Canadian Hockey League boosts border rivalry by launching series vs. USA Hockey’s development team

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The Canadian Hockey League is looking to capitalize on the sport’s cross-border rivalry by having its top draft-eligible prospects face USA Hockey’s National Development team in an annual two-game series starting in November.

Unveiled on Tuesday by the CHL, the series is being billed as the CHL-USA Prospects Challenge with this year’s games played at two Ontario cities — London and Oshawa — on Nov. 26-27. The CHL reached a three-year deal to host the series, with sites rotating between the group’s three members — the Ontario, Quebec Maritime, and Western hockey leagues.

Aside from the world junior championships, the series will feature many of both nation’s top 17- and 18-year-olds in head-to-head competition, something CHL President Dan MacKenzie noted has been previously lacking for two countries who produce a majority of NHL talent.

“We think we’ve got the recipe for something really special here,” MacKenzie said. “And we think it’s really going to deliver for fans of junior hockey who want to see the best payers of their age group play against each other with something on the line.”

A majority of the CHL’s roster will be selected by the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau.

The Michigan-based NTDP, established by USA Hockey in 1996, is a development program for America’s top juniors, with the team spending its season competing in the USHL, while rounding out its schedule playing in international tournaments and against U.S. colleges. NTDP alumni include NHL No. 1 draft picks such as Patrick Kane, Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes.

For the CHL, the series replaces its annual top-prospects game which was established in 1992 and ran through last season. The CHL also hosted a Canada-Russia Challenge, which began in 2003 and was last held in 2019, before being postponed as a result of the COVID pandemic and then canceled following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The success of USA Hockey’s program has really evolved and sort of gets them in a position where they’re going to be competitive in games like this,” MacKenzie said. “We’re still the No. 1 development league in the world by a wide margin. But we welcome the growth of the game and what that brings to the competition level.”

The challenge series is being launched at a time when North America’s junior hockey landscape could be shifting with the potential of NCAA Division 1 programs lifting their longstanding ban against CHL players.

On Friday, Western Hockey League player Braxton Whitehead announced on social media he has a verbal commitment to play at Arizona State next season. Whitehead’s announcement comes on the heels of a class-action lawsuit filed last month, challenging the NCAA’s eligibility ban of CHL players.

A lifting of the ban could lead to a number of CHL players making the jump to the U.S. college ranks after finishing high school.

MacKenzie called it difficult for him to comment due to the litigation and because the CHL is considered an observer in the case because it was not named in the lawsuit.

“My only comment would be that we continue to be a great option for 16- to 20-year-old players to develop their skills and move on to academic or athletic pursuits by being drafted in the NHL, where we’re the No. 1 source of talent,” MacKenzie said. “And we’re going to continue to focus on that.”

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Boston Marathon lowers qualifying times for most prospective runners for 2026 race

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BOSTON (AP) — Runners hoping to qualify for the 2026 Boston Marathon are going to have to pick up the pace.

The Boston Athletic Association has updated its qualifying times for the world’s oldest annual marathon, asking most prospective competitors to run a 26.2-mile race five minutes faster than in recent years to earn a starting number.

“Every time the BAA has adjusted qualifying standards — most recently in 2019 — we’ve seen athletes continue to raise the bar and elevate to new levels,” Jack Fleming, president and CEO of the BAA, said in a statement posted Monday. “In recent years we’ve turned away athletes in this age range (18-59) at the highest rate, and the adjustment reflects both the depth of participation and speed at which athletes are running.”

The BAA introduced qualifying times in 1970 and has expanded and adjusted the requirements through the decades. Runners participating in the event to raise money for charity do not have to meet the qualifying standards.

The latest change means men between the ages of 18 and 34 will have to run a marathon during the qualification window in 2 hours, 55 minutes or faster to earn a spot in the 2026 race — five minutes faster than for this year’s edition.

Women and nonbinary applicants need to complete the distance in 3:25.

The slowest competitors that can earn qualification are in the 80 and over age group. The men in that category must complete a marathon in 4:50, while women and nonbinary competitors have 5:20 to finish. Those numbers were not changed in the most recent adjustment.

The BAA said it had 36,406 qualifier entry applications for next year’s race, more than ever before.

“The record number of applicants indicates the growing trend of our sport and shows that athletes are continuously getting faster and faster,” Fleming said.

The qualifying window for the 2026 race began on Sept. 1 and will run through the conclusion of the registration period of that race next September.

Next year’s Boston Marathon will take place on April 21.

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Former Canadiens, Senators defenceman Chris Wideman retires after six NHL seasons

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MONTREAL – Former Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators defenceman Chris Wideman announced he’s retiring after six NHL seasons on Tuesday.

Wideman spent his last three seasons under contract with the Canadiens, but did not play during the 2023-24 campaign due to a back injury.

The 34-year-old said in a letter released by the Canadiens that he made several attempts at rehabilitation and sought a variety of treatments before deciding to hang up his skates. He finishes his career with 20 goals and 58 assists in 291 games.

Wideman, a five-foot-10, 180-pound blueliner, started his NHL career with the Senators in 2015-16. He played parts of four seasons in the nation’s capital before he was traded in 2018-19 to the Edmonton Oilers, playing five games in Alberta before moving on to the Florida Panthers, Pittsburgh Penguins and Anaheim Ducks organizations.

During the 2020-21 season, he played in Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League and was named the league’s defenceman of the year.

Wideman returned to the NHL the following season and produced a career-best 27 points (four goals, 23 assists) in 64 games with the Canadiens.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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