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How media buyers are adapting to the 'homebound economy' – The Drum

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Chaos has ensued in the media buying world as coronavirus ushers in a mass behavioural change. With governments imposing tighter preventative measures, including self-isolation and lockdowns, planners are being forced to rethink channels, comms and creative for almost every client.

With most of Europe, North America, India, much of APAC and Australasia in lockdown, marketers are rethinking budgets and redeploying their resources. One senior media buyer speaking under anonymity tells The Drum that they are scrambling to warn clients “not to go dark” despite the pressures of the times.

He, along with peers and rivals, is helping clients find new ways to reach the public after many tried, tested and trusted media channels were rendered ineffective almost overnight.

Changing channels

So what’s changed?

The mass cancellation of global events has bitten into live event sponsorship and the media that would have amplified these.

Meanwhile, TV broadcasters must conjure content replacements for their now captive audiences. It is no easy task to fill the hours committed to the highest traffic properties like Euro 2020 [2021 now] and the Olympics 2020 [also 2021]. New content is being commissioned to help people locked in their homes [See Channel 4’s Jamie Oliver cooking class or Joe Wick’s morning PE classes on YouTube]. These have to be agile operations, filmed with skeleton crews.

SVOD services like Netflix, Amazon Prime and the newly launched Disney Plus (five million downloads in Europe yesterday), are positioning to pick up the slack. Amid this spike in demand, they are generally lowering video fidelity to handle high traffic.

Radio, digital audio and podcasts have seen large listening spikes. It remains seen whether the decline of the commute may hurt them long term.

Cinema has been one of the hardest-hit mediums, with the delay of box office draw James Bond No Time To Die hitting it long before global governments began to introduce social distancing and lockdown measures.

Similarly, if the public cannot leave home frequently, the out of home industry suddenly also loses a vast, reliable audience.

And then there’s print. Time Out has rebranded to Time In and gone online only. Stylist, meanwhile, has launched a timely emag now it can’t deliver footfall, and the Evening Standard is now getting delivered to homes. Any print that wasn’t finding its way through a letterbox or inbox is suddenly lost.

Gaming and esports briefs are crossing many desks for the first time too. In the US, gaming time is up 75% (video streaming rose 12%). Fifa and F1 are channeling gaming to fill the sporting void and in-game ads are due to boom, albeit mostly on mobile.

Kantar has released media consumption data too. 25,000 consumers across 30 markets to between 14-23 March had their say on how habits are changing. This was before the lockdown in the UK and India took hold.

It found that internet usage has reportedly rose by 71%. Vast changes in media consumption are listed, note that cinema is the only one facing a decline. Internet surfing, TV and social networks see the biggest increases. From lower bases, consumers have claimed to have increased radio, newspaper and magazine time too.

The survey gauged social media and app use. WhatsApp has made the biggest gains as families turn to the app to stay in touch. In counties under strict lockdown, such as Spain, usage was up 76% in a few short weeks.

Jamie Dunlop, managing partner, behavioural planning agency Total Media, explained that it has been working closely with clients to address the changes.

“We know that demand for streaming services has risen and as such we are counselling clients to increase their investment to harness the consumer demand in this area. Similarly, with consumers changing their food purchase behaviour, there is an opportunity for our FMCG clients to match consumer demand and ensure their products are front of mind.”

TV overnight became more cost-effective in this window. Whether that’ll last with a wave of top and new brands eyeing the space remains to be seen.

One media buyer said: “By far and away the biggest pivot has been towards more e-commerce focused approaches to driving sales, and therefore a budgetary shift into digital channels.

“Some brands may soon run into problems with supply and delivery though, so a tricky balancing act that may mean turning off of the taps when product supply is low.” In the west, Amazon’s the benefactor of this shift, broadly.

On ice

Simon Harwood, head of strategy at the7stars, admitted that “there isn’t a single client who isn’t affected,” and that all comms must be viewed through the lens of the pandemic.

Huge increases in media tailored for the new home-bound economy will not compensate for an overall slump, he said. There’s been mass redeploys and cancellations across the industry.

“Now we are past the initial reaction to the outbreak in the UK, we are leaning into fresh strategies to adapt to the current containment period and looking ahead to the long term.”

But finding audiences isn’t the only challenge during this time.

A senior buyer at a network media agency said that marketers aren’t necessarily marking a proactive effort to adapt to changing media consumption trends, in many respects, they are making up for limited product availability or supply issues.

The “cracks of the agency model are showing,” and he fears the drying up of budgets amid economic uncertainty.

“It’s a knee jerk reaction from clients to pull all money they can to reduce the damage that we’ll soon see to business bottom line, or they’re not brave enough to push back against requests from the board.”

The luxury, retail, apparel, dining, drinking, travel and auto may be worst hit by Covid-19. The buyer admitted it is hard getting brands whose immediate future is threatened to buy into long-term brand building right now. However, just 10% of people surveyed by Kantar think that brands should pause advertising, with many believing they have an important role to play.

The media workforce

Pre the crisis, media was already being bled by in-housing and decreasing fees, the source adds. “The fallout from coronavirus is that many good people looking for new roles” in the next six months when 2021 budgets are arranged, the senior source said.

“Some senior leaders have been right on the frontline, motivating teams, sharing best work from home practices, reassuring clients and being open about goings-on with the agency and clients. Others though have been completely silent or wanting to participate without adding any value. Lockdown on flights and big meetings leave them twiddling their thumbs.”

But businesses can reform depending on who is hit by the redundancy axe.

“Many of us hope it comes swinging for the highly paid individuals who live for pitches and presentations. This will give talented mid-level staffers room to grow and help usher the agency model into the future.”

Despite needing to make a hard sell for the health of the businesses, marketers are having to figure out the best tone to strike; that means analysing and adapting existing creative. In locked-down nations, the ability to create new campaigns and assets is hindered.

On this, Hardwood said: “Brands need to find a different role to maintain visibility in this time. As ever, brands can add value and get noticed by being useful, informing, entertaining or connecting people – or a combination of all four.”

Look to China

Many a keen marketer will be looking at the bounce-back in China for two reasons, the nation was hit with the virus first which provides a testbed for consumption habit changes. Secondly, the market proved to be ahead of the game on digital solutions.

Several agencies are taking heed from their colleagues in the region and sharing learnings about what is and isn’t working during the crisis. But they are also looking to the past. Aashay Shah, director and client lead at Mindshare APAC is looking to the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS in 2003 and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2015 to model for changing behaviours.

Even in 2015, online shopping boomed during a lockdown. This time around, marketers should reallocate investment for short term wins to develop stronger e-commerce capabilities and readiness.

This TV, OTT will experience a surge in viewership and adoption but due to attribution challenge, paid search and social commerce will get higher chunk of budget.

In many respects, how China fairs post-Wuhan will steer the rest of the world, it would be wise to see how media adapts to an increasingly outdoor populace again.

Tom Laranjo, managing director at behavioural at Total Media, issued a warning. “Our industry’s real challenge will be maintaining morale over the longer term. We are only in the very early days of this crisis.”

He concluded: “[After peak infections], we are almost certain to move straight into a global recession. The road ahead is long and will certainly be hard, requiring new norms to be set across a range of areas.”

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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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Arizona man accused of social media threats to Trump is arrested

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Cochise County, AZ — Law enforcement officials in Arizona have apprehended Ronald Lee Syvrud, a 66-year-old resident of Cochise County, after a manhunt was launched following alleged death threats he made against former President Donald Trump. The threats reportedly surfaced in social media posts over the past two weeks, as Trump visited the US-Mexico border in Cochise County on Thursday.

Syvrud, who hails from Benson, Arizona, located about 50 miles southeast of Tucson, was captured by the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office on Thursday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office confirmed his arrest, stating, “This subject has been taken into custody without incident.”

In addition to the alleged threats against Trump, Syvrud is wanted for multiple offences, including failure to register as a sex offender. He also faces several warrants in both Wisconsin and Arizona, including charges for driving under the influence and a felony hit-and-run.

The timing of the arrest coincided with Trump’s visit to Cochise County, where he toured the US-Mexico border. During his visit, Trump addressed the ongoing border issues and criticized his political rival, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for what he described as lax immigration policies. When asked by reporters about the ongoing manhunt for Syvrud, Trump responded, “No, I have not heard that, but I am not that surprised and the reason is because I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”

This incident marks the latest in a series of threats against political figures during the current election cycle. Just earlier this month, a 66-year-old Virginia man was arrested on suspicion of making death threats against Vice President Kamala Harris and other public officials.

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