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How Much Longer Will the International Space Station Stay in Orbit? – ThomasNet News

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This isn’t the first time the world has been concerned about the possibility of an aging space station falling out of orbit.

I remember becoming aware of the possibility in 1997 thanks to season one of South Park. Kenny McCormick, the hoodie-wearing unfortunate who met his demise at least once every episode, was tragically squashed by Russian space station Mir while waiting for the school bus.

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The problem was that Mir was allowed to operate well beyond its intended lifespan of five years, eventually orbiting for 15 years before burning up over the Pacific Ocean in 2001. By the end, Mir had suffered from a fire, a collision with a cargo ship, leaking coolant pipes, a loss of power from broken solar arrays, and constant computer crashes. No wonder people used to glance anxiously upwards whenever space stations were mentioned.

Today, space agency officials and lawmakers are having a similar discussion about the International Space Station (ISS). Although its modules were originally designed for a 15-year lifespan, the ISS is slated to operate until its 30th anniversary in 2028, and possibly beyond. 

Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA’s former Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations, told a Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness in 2018: “We have a good operational life at least through 2028, and possibly a little bit further beyond that. We just need to continue to watch the station; continue to maintain it. What we don’t want to have happen is where we’re spending more time doing maintenance than we are doing research. At that point, the utility of the station starts to diminish.”

Considering Expenses

Safety and operational lifespan aside, the ISS has been incredibly expensive to develop, build, and maintain. With an estimated total cost of $150 billion and annual running costs of $3.5 billion, commentators including Buzz Aldrin are calling for the ISS to be retired to free up funding for humanity’s push to Mars and to make way for a new generation of commercial players in low-earth-orbit (LEO).

To be fair, the ISS isn’t a white elephant. Significant discoveries have been made in its laboratories in terms of advancing space exploration and Earth-based scientific progress, but there’s little chance of the ISS ever paying for itself in this respect. 

Confirmed in 2018, the Leading Human Spaceflight Act will fund the ISS “as long as it is safe and functional” through to at least September 2030 or “until a demonstrated and sustainable lower-cost alternative can achieve NASA’s mission objectives.”

These objectives are to conduct scientific and exploration research, to benefit life on Earth, and to increase U.S. economic competitiveness and commercial participation. The Act makes it clear that commercial activities in low-Earth orbit are encouraged and lays out a series of specific steps for NASA to partner with the private sector to develop commercial capabilities in LEO. Russia has similar plans for extending the lifespan of the ISS.

Successor Platforms

It seems nearly certain that any successor to the ISS will be a commercial platform. The idea that the ISS itself could be privatized and taken over by a private entity, or series of entities, seems unlikely, as there has been scant commercial interest in the space station over the past 20 years. But the way is being paved for the private sector to build, launch, and operate LEO-based platforms for profit.  

Potential players include Axiom Space, which is partnering with NASA to deliver three new modules — habitation, research, and manufacturing — to the ISS. These will detach and orbit independently when the ISS is eventually retired. Bigelow Aerospace has designed plug-in, inflatable modules to attach to the ISS and, like Axiom’s proposal, one day become free-flying space stations themselves.

How Will the ISS Be Retired?

Eventually — in 2028, 2030, or perhaps even later — the ISS will be deorbited. This involves pushing or pulling the space station out of orbit and into the Earth’s atmosphere, where most of it will burn up during re-entry. Preventing the creation of yet more space junk is an increasing priority in end-of-life planning for spacecraft.

The retirement of the ISS will likely mark the end of large state-owned platforms in space —for the U.S. at least — as space stations follow the wider trend in space exploration transitioning from government to commercial activity. However, the political and security view of this decision may change with the 2021 launch of China’s large modular space station.

 

Image Credit: Vadim Sadovski / Shutterstock.com

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Dragonfly: NASA Just Confirmed The Most Exciting Space Mission Of Your Lifetime – Forbes

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NASA has confirmed that its exciting Dragonfly mission, which will fly a drone-like craft around Saturn’s largest moon, Titan, will cost $3.35 billion and launch in July 2028.

Titan is the only other world in the solar system other than Earth that has weather and liquid on the surface. It has an atmosphere, rain, lakes, oceans, shorelines, valleys, mountain ridges, mesas and dunes—and possibly the building blocks of life itself. It’s been described as both a utopia and as deranged because of its weird chemistry.

Set to reach Titan in 2034, the Dragonfly mission will last for two years once its lander arrives on the surface. During the mission, a rotorcraft will fly to a new location every Titan day (16 Earth days) to take samples of the giant moon’s prebiotic chemistry. Here’s what else it will do:

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  • Search for chemical biosignatures, past or present, from water-based life to that which might use liquid hydrocarbons.
  • Investigate the moon’s active methane cycle.
  • Explore the prebiotic chemistry in the atmosphere and on the surface.

Spectacular Mission

“Dragonfly is a spectacular science mission with broad community interest, and we are excited to take the next steps on this mission,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Exploring Titan will push the boundaries of what we can do with rotorcraft outside of Earth.”

It comes in the wake of the Mars Helicopter, nicknamed Ingenuity, which flew 72 times between April 2021 and its final flight in January 2023 despite only being expected to make up to five experimental test flights over 30 days. It just made its final downlink of data this week.

Dense Atmosphere

However, Titan is a completely different environment to Mars. Titan has a dense atmosphere on Titan, which will make buoyancy simple. Gravity on Titan is just 14% of the Earth’s. It sees just 1% of the sunlight received by Earth.

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The atmosphere is 98% nitrogen and 2% methane. Its seas and lakes are not water but liquid ethane and methane. The latter is gas in Titan’s atmosphere, but on its surface, it exists as a liquid in rain, snow, lakes, and ice on its surface.

COVID-Affected

Dragonfly was a victim of the pandemic. Slated to cost $1 billion when it was selected in 2019, it was meant to launch in 2026 and arrive in 2034 after an eight-year cruise phase. However, after delays due to COVID, NASA decided to compensate for the inevitable delayed launch by funding a heavy-lift launch vehicle to massively shorten the mission’s cruise phase.

The end result is that Dragonfly will take off two years later but arrive on schedule.

Previous Visit

Dragonfly won’t be the first time a robotic probe has visited Titan. As part of NASA’s landmark Cassini mission to Saturn between 2004 and 2017, a small probe called Huygens was despatched into Titan’s clouds on January 14, 2005. The resulting timelapse movie of its 2.5 hours descent—which heralded humanity’s first-ever (and only) views of Titan’s surface—is a must-see for space fans. It landed in an area of rounded blocks of ice, but on the way down, it saw ancient dry shorelines reminiscent of Earth as well as rivers of methane.

The announcement by NASA makes July 2028 a month worth circling for space fans, with a long-duration total solar eclipse set for July 22, 2028, in Australia and New Zealand.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.

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Scientists claim evidence of 'Planet 9' in our solar system – Supercar Blondie

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A team of scientists claims to have evidence that there is another hidden planet – nicknamed ‘Planet 9’ – lurking in our solar system.

Of course, there have been changes to the number of planets in our solar system over recent – in space terms, anyway – years, as Pluto is no longer considered a proper planet.

Seems a bit harsh, doesn’t it?

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However, a team of astronomers now believe that they have the strongest evidence yet that there is another mysterious planet hovering around our sun.

READ MORE! James Webb Telescope observes light on Earth-like planet for the first time in history

The theory that there could be other planets orbiting our star has been around for years, as scientists have noticed some unusual phenomena on the edge of the solar system that suggest the existence of another celestial body.

The theory that another planet is responsible would also explain the orbit of other objects that are outliers in our system, sitting more than 250 times Earth’s distance from the sun.

Scientist Konstantin Bogytin and his team have long been proponents of this ‘Planet 9’ theory, and now they believe they have ‘the strongest statistical evidence yet that Planet 9 is really out there’.

As we know, it wouldn’t be the only strange thing in our solar system.

Or outside, for that matter.

Perhaps they just need to point a massive space telescope at it and they’ll find evidence of alien life out there.

This new study by Bogytin and his team focused on a number of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) that lie outside the orbit of Neptune towards the outer reaches of our solar system.

In analyzing the movements of these objects – which can be affected by the orbit of Neptune, as well as passing stars and the ‘galactic tide’ – the scientists concluded that there could be another unseen planet out there.

Dr Bogytin pointed out that there are other potential explanations for the behavior of these objects, but – he believes – Planet 9 is the best bet.

Once the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile becomes active, we might get the best look we’ve had yet.

In a paper, the team wrote: “This upcoming phase of exploration promises to provide critical insights into the mysteries of our solar system’s outer reaches.”

That paper, entitled ‘Generation of Low-Inclination, Neptune-Crossing TNOs by Planet Nine’ is available to read here.

Images in this article were generated using AI

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Marine plankton could act as alert in mass extinction event: UVic researcher – Saanich News

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A University of Victoria micropaleontologist found that marine plankton may act as an early alert system before a mass extinction occurs.

With help from collaborators at the University of Bristol and Harvard, Andy Fraass’ newest paper in the Nature journal shows that after an analysis of fossil records showed that plankton community structures change before a mass extinction event.

“One of the major findings of the paper was how communities respond to climate events in the past depends on the previous climate,” Fraass said in a news release. “That means that we need to spend a lot more effort understanding recent communities, prior to industrialization. We need to work out what community structure looked like before human-caused climate change, and what has happened since, to do a better job at predicting what will happen in the future.”

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According to the release, the fossil record is the most complete and extensive archive of biological changes available to science and by applying advanced computational analyses to the archive, researchers were able to detail the global community structure of the oceans dating back millions of years.

A key finding of the study was that during the “early eocene climatic optimum,” a geological era with sustained high global temperatures equivalent to today’s worst case global warming scenarios, marine plankton communities moved to higher latitudes and only the most specialized plankton remained near the equator, suggesting that the tropical temperatures prevented higher amounts of biodiversity.

“Considering that three billion people live in the tropics, the lack of biodiversity at higher temperatures is not great news,” paper co-leader Adam Woodhouse said in the release.

Next, the team plans to apply similar research methods to other marine plankton groups.

Read More: Global study, UVic researcher analyze how mammals responded during pandemic

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