It’s become clear to all by now that NATO is not going to risk a Third World War by imposing a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace contested by Russian warplanes.
But perhaps the debate over a no-fly zone has distracted attention from other actions that Canada — and what Russian President Vladimir Putin calls “the collective West” — could take to help save Ukraine from Russia.
Canada has given Ukraine a considerable amount of assistance over the years. Since the annexation of Crimea, Canada has launched the Operation Unifier training program for Ukrainian troops and has contributed non-lethal aid — and lately, lethal military materiel — from its own meagre stocks. Canada also has been among the most aggressive countries when it comes to sanctioning Russia.
But there are other things this country, and other NATO allies, could do to help Ukraine.
Operation Distraction
Russia already has poured a significant portion of its combat power into Ukraine — but it still has more in reserve, spread out over its vast territory.
As the Russian offensive has stalled, Russian citizens in Siberian cities like Krasnoyarsk have been recording long trains carrying Russian armour west toward Ukraine.
A large train with Russian military equipment was seen in Krasnoyarsk <a href=”https://t.co/1USmZnW1Xv”>pic.twitter.com/1USmZnW1Xv</a>
Could NATO do anything to disrupt or discourage the movement of reinforcements to Ukraine? It could — through distraction.
If NATO were to stage joint exercises with Japan near the disputed Kuril islands off Russia’s Pacific coast, Russia might be much less sanguine about stripping the region of its defences to bolster its forces in Ukraine.
NATO also could stage manoeuvres in the Baltic region to discourage Russia from transferring forces from its North Military District.
If NATO really felt like pushing the envelope, it could stage exercises in the western part of the Black Sea, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria. That would mean the Russian ships now assembling off Odessa and shelling the coast — apparently in preparation for an amphibious assault — would have to operate with NATO warships and warplanes right at their backs.
Keep them on their toes
“That’s certainly one of the tactics NATO will be looking at,” said Christian Leuprecht of the Royal Military College of Canada.
“The Black Sea is a very serious and genuine option. Romania has every reason to say, ‘The Russians are shelling the Ukrainian coast. What are we doing to defend our coast?'”
Leuprecht said NATO should give Russia short notice of the exercises. “Usually these are announced a year ahead of time,” he said. “That gives them time to draw down their forces.”
A U.S. Boeing AH-64 Apache attack helicopter flies during the NATO military exercise Crystal Arrow 2022 at the Adazi military range in Latvia on March 11, 2022. (Martins Zilgalvis/AP)
Instead, he said, NATO should make use of the new troops moving to defend the alliance’s eastern flank and be “more sporadic and spontaneous. You want to keep them on their toes.”
“That forces the Russians to keep their forces deployed elsewhere.”
Risky business
This strategy is far from risk-free. It plays on the fact that military exercises can provide cover for an invasion force — a threat Putin understands better than anybody, having just used that same ruse himself.
But when rival forces are in close proximity at times of heightened tension, there’s always a risk of violence.
That would be especially true in the Black Sea, where Russian naval commanders are already on a hair-trigger setting.
Putin also could choose to interpret any NATO exercises on his frontiers as an attack in order to justify launching a war with NATO. That action might not be rational but there are doubts about how rational Putin’s thinking is now.
“NATO exercises near Russian borders could be used by Russia to respond and escalate” if Putin decides escalation is in his interest, said Ivan Katchanovski, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa who has written extensively about conflict in his native Ukraine.
MASH at the border
One strategy less likely to widen the war is to set up Level 3 military hospitals at Ukraine’s borders on alliance territory in Poland, Slovakia and Romania. There, Ukrainian soldiers could be treated and, where possible, returned to the fight, saving lives and relieving a tremendous burden on Ukraine’s army.
Ukrainian soldiers are dying from injuries that could be treated under better conditions.
This action would be essentially humanitarian — and difficult for Russia to portray as a provocation.
In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office on Sunday, March 13, 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky, centre, shakes hands with a wounded soldier during his visit to a hospital in Kyiv, Ukraine. (AP)
“You can assume that among the wounded refugees showing up in European hospitals are wounded soldiers,” said Leuprecht. “But it’s currently happening on a very low-level, subversive scale. But NATO could make it much more explicit.”
Such hospitals also would allow NATO’s smallest members, like Albania, to contribute in a tangible way.
“I suspect that’s going to come. Because we’re going to need to keep Ukrainian soldiers motivated, and that’s an easy piece of support and an easy sales pitch,” said Leuprecht. “There’s enough of these field hospitals around that you could run them at each of Ukraine’s borders.”
Escrow the oil and gas money
A no-fly zone isn’t the only tactic that seems out of reach for Ukraine’s allies right now. Another is Europe halting all purchases of oil and gas from Russia.
European countries have given hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Ukraine since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Over the same period, many of those countries paid Russia, collectively, over $20 billion for fossil fuels.
In a New York Times opinion piece published Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s economic adviser Oleg Ustenko complained that Putin’s “war is paying for itself” and asked for secondary sanctions to go after companies that ship or handle Russian oil and gas.
“In the meantime,” wrote Ustenko, “payments for Russian gas should go into escrow accounts, so that the proceeds cannot be used to buy weapons. This is standard practice when there are sanctions.”
But there is a major problem with this proposal — it risks splitting the western alliance.
Not ready to go cold turkey
Germany and some other EU members have made it clear that they won’t ask their people to freeze in the dark for Ukraine. Even Poland — where the entire population seems to have mobilized to support Ukrainians — continues to buy energy from Russia.
Katchanovski said the Europeans know their position is weak.
“Russia would just stop delivery of natural gas to western Europe and other EU countries like Poland and Slovakia,” he said. “This would lead to very negative consequences for these countries.”
Activists with the environmental organization Greenpeace paint the words ‘Oil fuels war’ on the hull of a ship carrying Russian oil near the German island Fehmarn on Wednesday, March 23, 2022. (Frank Molter/AP)
“Recently,” he added, “Putin issued a demand for buyers of natural gas from Russia to pay in rubles” in an effort to shore up his country’s plunging currency” — another sign that Putin believes Moscow holds the cards when it comes to energy diplomacy.
(He may yet get a rude surprise. Slovenia’s PM said on Thursday that he doesn’t think “anybody in Europe knows what rubles look like. Nobody will pay in rubles.”)
For now, it appears that weaning Europe off Russian oil and gas is a long-term proposition.
Start collecting for reconstruction now
Like all wars, this one will end someday. Katchanovski said Ukrainians are counting on something like a Marshall Plan for their country — a massive injection of foreign capital to fund the country’s post-war recovery.
But the reconstruction effort doesn’t have to begin and end with national governments. Nor does the collection of reconstruction funds have to wait for the shooting to stop.
Past experience with disasters such as the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake shows that very large amounts of money can be raised outside of government treasuries when governments use imaginative mechanisms such as matching private donations dollar-for-dollar.
Needs assessments will be necessary in certain cases, but some needs don’t require studies before the fundraising starts. Ukrainian towns such as Irpin and Mykolaiv have been forced to blow up their own bridges to stop Russian advances. The solution in such cases is obvious: rebuild the bridge.
Adopt a highway … or a bridge
Two European governments showed one way to do that. Italy has pledged to rebuild the Mariupol theater brutally bombed by Russian warplanes while hundreds of civilians sheltered inside. And Greece has committed to give Mariupol a new maternity hospital to replace the one destroyed by Russian artillery.
Rather than waiting for Ottawa to act, Canadian provinces and municipalities, corporations and unions, associations and groups of individuals could commit to rebuilding a single landmark or piece of infrastructure.
Dr. Anatolii Pavlov takes pictures of a damaged psychiatric hospital after it was hit in a military strike in Mykolaiv, Ukraine on March 22, 2022. (Nacho Doce/Reuters)
The model is scalable: it could be as large as an airport or as small as a daycare. The federal government could assist by ensuring that such efforts will be treated as charitable donations for tax purposes.
“It would be very helpful to access private money,” said Katchanovski, pointing to private fundraising efforts that already have raised significant amounts of money, such as the one organized by Ukrainian-American Mila Kunis.
Open the clubhouse doors
This war has made it clear to all, including President Zelensky, that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table for the foreseeable future.
But Russia’s demands go much further than that, said Katchanovski.
“Currently the Russian demands include no NATO membership, demilitarization of Ukraine, Russian-language official status, independence of Donbas, recognition of the annexation of Crimea, and a demand for ‘denazification’,” he said.
But the extortionate demands Russia has presented to Ukraine in negotiations do not include ruling out Ukraine’s eventual membership in the European Union, said Katchanovski.
If the war ends through a negotiated ceasefire (as most wars ultimately do), then Ukraine may find itself forced to accept some form of neutrality that would make military alliances impossible. But as the examples of Austria and Finland show, it’s possible to remain outside NATO while still being thoroughly integrated economically into Europe.
“Ukraine could be offered EU membership as part of a peace deal where it agrees to renounce NATO membership and declares itself neutral,” said Katchanovski. “This would present Ukraine with something tangible and generate public support.”
Everything depends on the battlefield
Katchanovski says that the harshness of final peace terms will depend entirely on the progress of the war.
“If Russia achieves more significant military success, this would lead to Ukraine losing its independence or becoming a Russian client state with some kind of formal union between Russia and Ukraine.”
If Ukrainian forces continue to hold their own, however, its government will be inclined to refuse the outrageous territorial demands Russia has placed upon them, which amount to the loss of a third of their country.
There were signs on Friday that Russia might already be scaling back ambitions.
It all comes down to whether the Ukrainian armed forces can achieve success on the battlefield and whether Western governments have the stamina to continue to support them.
“This could go on for months; it could go on for years,” said Leuprecht. “Showing that we’re willing to do this for the long term, and that we can co-ordinate ourselves to keep this going the way we did in the Cold War until we get to an end — that’s going to be the most important piece.”
Toronto FC captain Jonathan Osorio is making a difference, 4,175 kilometres away from home.
The 32-year-old Canadian international midfielder, whose parents hail from Colombia, has been working with the Canadian Colombian Children’s Organization, a charity whose goal is to help disadvantaged youth in the South American country.
Osorio has worked behind the scenes, with no fanfare.
Until now, with his benevolence resulting in becoming Toronto FC’s nominee for the Audi Goals Drive Progress Impact Award, which honours an MLS player “who showed outstanding dedication to charitable efforts and serving the community” during the 2024 season.”
Other nominees include Vancouver Whitecaps midfielder Sebastian Berhalter and CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois.
The winner will be announced in late November.
The Canadian Colombian Children’s Organization (CCCO) is run entirely by volunteers like Monica Figueredo and Claudia Soler. Founded in 1991, it received charitable status in 2005.
The charity currently has four projects on the go: two in Medellin and one each in Armenia and Barranquilla.
They include a school, a home for young girls whose parents are addicted to drugs, after-school and weekend programs for children in a disadvantaged neighbourhood, and nutrition and education help for underprivileged youth.
The organization heard about Osorio and was put in contact with him via an intermediary, which led to a lunch meeting. Osorio did his due diligence and soon got back to the charity with his decision.
“It was something that I wanted to be a part of right away,” said Osorio, whose lone regret is that he didn’t get involved sooner.
“I’m fortunate now that to help more now that I could have back then,” he added. “The timing actually worked out for everybody. For the last three years I have donated to their cause and we’ve built a couple of (football) fields in different cities over there in the schools.”
His father visited one of the sites in Armenia close to his hometown.
“He said it was amazing, the kids, how grateful they are to be able to play on any pitch, really,” said Osorio. “But to be playing on a new pitch, they’re just so grateful and so humble.
“It really makes it worth it being part of this organization.”
The collaboration has also made Osorio take stock.
“We’re very fortunate here in Canada, I think, for the most part. Kids get to go to school and have a roof over their head and things like that. In Colombia, it’s not really the same case. My father and his family grew up in tough conditions, so giving back is like giving back to my father.”
Osorio’s help has been a godsend to the charity.
“We were so surprised with how willing he was,” said Soler.
The TFC skipper has helped pay for a football field in Armenia as well as an ambitious sports complex under construction in Barranquilla.
“It’s been great for them,” Figueredo said of the pitch in Armenia. “Because when they go to school, now they have a proper place to train.”
Osorio has also sent videos encouraging the kids to stay active — as well as shipping soccer balls and signed jerseys their way.
“They know more about Jonathan than the other players in Colombia,” Figueredo said. “That’s the funny part. Even though he’s far away, they’ve connected with him.”
“They feel that they have a future, that they can do more,” she added. “Seeing that was really, really great.”
The kids also followed Osorio through the 2022 World Cup and this summer’s Copa America.
Back home, Osorio has also attended the charity’s annual golf tournament, helping raise funds.
A Toronto native, he has long donated four tickets for every TFC home game to the Hospital for Sick Children.
Vancouver’s Berhalter was nominated for his involvement in the Whitecaps’ partnership with B.C. Children’s Hospital while Montreal’s Sirois was chosen for his work with the Montreal Impact Foundation.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
TORONTO – The Toronto Raptors kick off the 2024-25 season on Wednesday night when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers at Scotiabank Arena. Here are five things to know ahead of the Raptors’ home opener:
THREE DECADES — It’s the Raptors’ 30th anniversary and the team has plans to celebrate all season, including bringing back their purple jerseys from the mid-1990s. Toronto will also be honouring former players, including Hall of Famer Vince Carter. He’ll be the first-ever player to have his Raptors jersey retired in a ceremony at Scotiabank Arena on Nov. 2.
DEPTH CHART — The Raptors lacked depth to start last season with essentially one player coming off the bench — shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. — with then-rookie swingman Gradey Dick sometimes rotating in too. That short bench was evident with a -4.4 net rating over the season, tied with the San Antonio Spurs for third-worst in the NBA. Net rating is an advanced stat that indicates how much better or worse a team performs on a per-possession basis.
However, a series of trades and four draft picks remade the roster and greatly improved Toronto’s depth.
Point guard Davion Mitchell, power forward Ochai Agbaji and centre Chris Boucher of Montreal will lead the reserves to start the season. All three have serious NBA experience, averaging more than 17 minutes per game in their careers. They’ll be joined on the second unit by centre Kelly Olynyk (back) of Kamloops, B.C., and small forward Bruce Brown (arthroscopic knee surgery) once they’re healthy for a robust veteran bench that can handle big minutes. Ja’Kobe Walter, Toronto’s 19th overall pick in this past summer’s draft, will presumably be Dick’s backup at the two-guard once he’s recovered from a sprained shoulder.
COMMUTERS — Walter was the highest of Toronto’s four picks selected in the 2024 NBA draft in late June. Power forward Jonathan Mogbo (31st), point guard Jamal Shead (45th) and centre Ulrich Chomche (57th) were also selected. Although all four will see some NBA minutes this season — especially Shead, whose dogged defence was a highlight of the Raptors’ pre-season — they’ll also be regulars for the G-League’s Raptors 905 in nearby Mississauga, Ont.
IN-SEASON TOURNAMENT — The Raptors are in Group B for the NBA’s second-annual in-season tournament. They’re grouped with the Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. Toronto’s so-called Cup Nights will begin Nov. 12 in Milwaukee and continue when the Raptors host Detroit on Nov. 15. Their third tournament game will be Nov. 29 in Miami and then their group stage will end Dec. 3 when Indiana visits Scotiabank Arena.
Financial incentive has been added to the NBA Cup playoffs this season, with players on the winning team earning US$514,971 each, while $205,988 goes to each player on the runner-up team. Players who lost in the semis will get $102,994 apiece and players that lose in the quarters will get $51,497.
PORTER SENTENCING — Former Toronto backup centre Jontay Porter will receive face sentencing on Dec. 18 after he pleaded guilty in the summer to a U.S. federal conspiracy crime. Porter, 24, was banned from the NBA after admitting that he helped bettors by intentionally underperforming in games. Prosecutors have estimated that he could be facing a range from just under 3 1/2 years in prison to a little over four years.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
KANSAS CITY, Kan. (AP) — A judge has tossed three more lawsuits filed against lawmakers who shared social media posts that falsely accused a Kansas man of being among the shooters who opened fire at a rally celebrating the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory.
Denton Loudermill Jr., who was briefly handcuffed but not charged in the chaos that followed the deadly Feb. 14 shooting, filed federal lawsuits against three Republican Missouri state senators: Rick Brattin of Harrisonville, Denny Hoskins of Warrensburg and Nick Schroer of St. Charles County.
The dismissal of those suits Monday comes a month after a similar suit was dismissed against U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett, a Republican from Tennessee.
The judge cited issues with jurisdiction. Loudermill, who is from Olathe, Kansas, filed in federal court in Kansas, rather than in Missouri, where the lawmakers were from.
Loudermill’s lawyer, Arthur Benson, said that he planned to refile the lawsuits soon. Benson said previously that he also plans to refile a lawsuit against Burchett in Washington, D.C., where the congressman was when he posted about Loudermill on social media.
The shooting outside the historic Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri, killed a well-known DJ and injured more than 20 others, many of them children.
Loudermill’s lawsuits said he froze when the gunfire erupted, standing in the middle of the chaos so long that police had put up crime scene tape by the time he finally started to walked away. As he tried to go under the tape to leave, officers stopped him and told him he was moving “too slow.” They handcuffed him and put him on a curb, where people began taking pictures and posting them on social media, the suits said.
Loudermill ultimately was led away from the area and told he was free to go.
But soon posts began appearing on X, formerly known as Twitter, that included a picture of Loudermill, a car wash employee who was born and raised in the U.S. The posts called him an “illegal alien” and a “shooter,” even though he had no involvement, the suits said.
Versions of those posts, one by Burchett, were then were re-posted on the three Missouri lawmaker’s accounts, accompanied by comments from the lawmakers.
Schroer asked for confirmation or denial from law enforcement when he reposted the message from Burchett’s account.
“I’ve been sent videos or stills showing at least 6 different people arrested from yesterday but officially told only 3 still in custody,” Schroer wrote on social media over Burchett’s post. “The people deserve answers.”
After the judge’s ruling, Schroer described the lawsuits as frivolous in a statement and said he was “exploring all legal options available against persons and media outlets that knowingly spread fake news instead of what I actually asked on social media.”
Hoskins said in a statement that he agreed with the judge’s decision and would “continue to pray for the innocent victims of the Kansas City parade shooting.”
Brattin said elected officials “must have the right to speak publicly on matters of public safety without fear of liberal elites in the media creating false narratives in an attempt to destroy their credibility and provoke frivolous legal attacks.”
The judge had denied as moot an argument that the three senators were protected by “legislative immunity” in their roles as lawmakers.
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey’s office, which defended the three senators, praised the ruling.
“Questions of Missouri law belong in Missouri courts, not in remote courts in other states,” spokesperson Madeline Sieren said in a statement. “We have said that from Day One. Missourians should rest assured that they have an Attorney General who will always follow the law, even when it’s not easy.”
