How temporary realignment has impacted the National Hockey League standings so far - TSN | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Sports

How temporary realignment has impacted the National Hockey League standings so far – TSN

Published

4 years ago

 on


Looking at the National Hockey League standings, the first thing you notice is the Toronto Maple Leafs sitting in pole position. But is it real?

The answer is yes. In my seven years at TSN, that was the easiest piece I’ve written to date!

Now for a more interesting question along those same lines. Some recent discussion has centered on whether the Maple Leafs have merely been reaping the benefits of forced temporary realignment and an apparently weaker division, or are a genuinely improved team that is putting daylight between themselves and other playoff contenders.

One roadblock in answering that question is the fact that the divisions are locked, meaning no interdivisional play this season. Stare at the standings long enough, and you could convince yourself that both answers are correct.

But we can try to quantify what impact the divisional restructuring has had on performance, mostly because the intervening off-season was unlike any other.

Normal off-seasons generally involve significant player movement and organizational changes, so year-to-year changes in performance are anticipated. But this off-season was eerily quiet, in large part due to an unexpectedly flat salary cap. Outside of a couple of teams (the Montreal Canadiens for example) who had the luxury to spend, most were forced to tweak their rosters at the margins and run it back.

It’s also not lost on me that even after 20 or so games, most of the playoff teams from the prior season are in position to become playoff teams once again. Consider the current standings and note the teams occupying the top four slots of each division:

Embedded Image

You can find a couple examples of teams on the rise, like the Florida Panthers. You can also spot a team like the Nashville Predators off to slower-than-expected starts. But for the most part, the broader spectrum of playoff-calibre teams hasn’t changed much, and most teams are reasonably in line with their prior year’s expectations. Consequently, the year-over-year correlation in net goals (and, consequently, wins and losses) is quite high.

The one thing we do know is that every single team in the NHL has a dramatically different schedule this season. In order to tease out the relative effect of these scheduling changes, we need to measure this year’s observations against our understanding of team talent level from the end of last season. Let’s create a quick analysis accordingly.

Here, we will do three things:

1. Consider each team’s net-goal advantage/disadvantage from the 2019-20 season (and associated widespread schedule) as a proxy for team talent.

2. Iterate a team’s schedule against what should have been their 2020-21 opponents.

3. Analyze the shifts in performance at a team and divisional level.

Do this exercise across every team in the league, and you can see how a team’s divisional opponents in a normal year have behaved through the environment changes:

What do these numbers indicate? Let’s look at the Predators for a moment, who have the most extreme example of the 31 teams.

Last season, Nashville – who would have just made the playoff cut in a competitive Central Division – saw an opponent that was +0.21 goals per-game better than a league-average opponent, indicating a reasonably strong division. This season, that number is up to +0.45 goals per game, the highest number in the league. Why is this the case?

The short answer is that their normal divisional foes – some of which stayed in the Central, others of which left for new divisions – have all played rather well in their new groupings.

The opposite of the Nashville situation might be the Vegas Golden Knights, as their normal Pacific opponents have had better years.

The teams that stayed in the Pacific now get to enjoy facing teams like St. Louis and Colorado on a regular basis, and the teams that left – emphasis on Vancouver and Calgary  here – have had relatively rough starts in the North Division. That may suggest the Golden Knights have had a softer division of sorts last season, and a more difficult division to navigate this season.

There is also a funny note about what’s happened with the Central Division. The Central was the strongest division a season ago, and the new Central looks like it will retain that belt. What happened was relatively simple: the division displaced strong playoff-calibre clubs (Colorado, Minnesota, and St. Louis all headed to the West, for example) and received other strong playoff-calibre clubs (Tampa Bay, Columbus, and an improved Florida team) in a clean trade-off.

Let’s bring this back to the Maple Leafs.

Toronto, you will notice, has relatively flat year-over-year numbers – their Atlantic Division foes faring about as well this year as they did last year. Intuitively this makes sense. What was very obvious about the Atlantic Division one season ago is that there were two teams that posed lethally tough matchups, and three teams who were also-rans.

This year, barring something dramatic, Toronto will be a favourite in just about every game going forward. But just as their games against the league’s elite have disappeared, so too have the games against the minnows of the NHL. It puts them in prime position to chase down the North Division title, but it does not put them in a comfortable position of generating game experience against Cup contenders.

Data via NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Sports

Champions Trophy host Pakistan says it’s not been told India wants to play cricket games elsewhere

Published

1 day ago

 on

November 8, 2024

By

 

LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.

“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”

Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.

The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.

Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.

“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”

Pakistan hosted last year’s Asia Cup but all India games were played in Sri Lanka under a hybrid model for the tournament. Only months later Pakistan did travel to India for the 50-over World Cup.

Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.

“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”

The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.

“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”

Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.

“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.

___

AP cricket:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Sports

Dabrowski, Routlife into WTA doubles final with win over Melichar-Martinez, Perez

Published

1 day ago

 on

November 8, 2024

By

 

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.

Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.

The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.

The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.

Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.

Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Sports

Winger Tajon Buchanan back with Canada after recovering from broken leg

Published

1 day ago

 on

November 8, 2024

By

 

Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.

The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.

Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.

There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.

Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.

But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.

The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”

The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.

Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.

Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.

Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.

Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.

“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”

“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.

Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.

Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.

The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.

Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.

Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.

Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.

Canada Roster

Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).

Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).

Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).

Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).

—

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version