Forecasters are in part responding to real-time economic data. Despite talk of a global recession since at least last February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, these data have held up better than expected. Consider a weekly estimate of gdp from the oecd, a group of mostly rich countries which account for about 60% of global output. It is hardly booming, but in mid-January few countries were struggling (see chart 1). Widely watched “purchasing-manager index” measures of global output rose slightly in January, consistent with gdp growth of about 2%.
Official numbers remain a mixed bag. Recent figures on American retail sales came in below expectations. Meanwhile, in Japan machinery orders were far weaker than forecast. Yet after reaching an all-time low in the summer, consumer confidence across the oecd has risen. Officials are due to publish their first estimate of America’s gdp growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 on January 26th. Most economists are expecting a decent number, though pandemic disruptions mean these figures will be less reliable than normal.
Labour markets seem to be holding up, too. In some rich countries, including Austria and Denmark, joblessness is rising—a tell-tale sign that a recession is looming. Barely a day goes by without an announcement from another big technology firm that it is letting people go. Yet tech accounts for a small share of overall jobs, and in most countries unemployment remains low. Happily, employers across the oecd are expressing their falling demand for labour largely by withdrawing job adverts, rather than sacking people. We estimate that, since reaching an all-time high of more than 30m early last year, unfilled vacancies have fallen by about 10%. The number of people actually in a job has fallen by less than 1% from its peak.
