How to adapt portfolios in a low-rate world - Investment Executive | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Investment

How to adapt portfolios in a low-rate world – Investment Executive

Published

 on


Government bonds provided reliable ballast earlier this year when equity markets tanked in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Government of Canada seven- to 10-year bonds returned 9.5% in the first three quarters of the year, and long-duration (20+ years) Government of Canada bonds returned almost 20%, according to a report from FTSE Russell.

Seven- to 10-year U.S. Treasuries returned 11.5% as of Sept. 30, while long Treasuries returned 20.8% (in USD).

“It’s going to be really hard to extrapolate that going beyond this,” Taylor said, since he doesn’t see North America moving to negative rates anytime soon.

Phil Mesman, head of fixed income with Picton Mahoney Asset Management in Toronto, said strategies need to shift now, even though the 40% fixed income part of portfolios served investors well this year.

Replicating the benefit from government bonds this year would require a -10 basis point U.S. Treasury yield, he said.

“All of the backward numbers look great in fixed income,” Mesman said. “The typical advisor portfolio looks amazing but, at current yields and current duration, it makes sense to be a little more creative.”

Taylor said investors can look to investment-grade corporate bonds to find yield through active management. Beyond that, he said investors will have to consider alternative strategies such as options writing and private debt, as well as hard assets such as real estate, infrastructure and precious metals.

“We think there’s going to be a rework of the traditional 60-40 portfolio,” he said.

Mesman said he’s focused on long and short opportunities in developed-market BBB- to B-grade bonds.

The Federal Reserve’s willingness to purchase corporate bonds has made the market more expensive and masked credit risk, he said. This has created opportunities on the short side to both protect the portfolio and provide alpha in cases “where the real economy’s impact on financial assets has yet to be felt,” he said.

Jonathan Hausman, managing director and head of global strategic relationships with the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, warned about the risks of wading into high-yield credit.

“That works until it doesn’t,” he said earlier this month on a panel at the Global Risk Institute’s summit.

Rating agency Moody’s warned investors this week that a record number of companies are in danger of slipping from investment grade to junk territory due to the uneven economic recovery.

Speaking on a webinar earlier this month, FTSE Russell director of fixed income research Robin Marshall also expressed concerns about a “high-yield value trap.” Canadian credit spreads were wider during the economic downturn in 2015-16 than they are now, he said — a “conundrum” given the depth of recession investors are now facing.

High-yield valuations have moved to “demanding” levels relative to current default risks, he said.

Hausman also pointed to strategies such as infrastructure and real assets to provide protection as well as some return on the fixed income side, which is hard to come by.

“That requires some creativity,” he said, “but not much creativity because that’s how folks get into trouble.”

A report from Richardson GMP this month also warned against relying on government bonds and made the case for long-short credit strategies. It pointed to Japanese and German bonds, which started the year with lower yields and “provided nearly no ballast at all” in March.

“With the U.S. and Canada yields now at similarly low starting points, it is unlikely that they can provide anywhere near the same historical hedging properties as in previous downturns,” the report said.

Rather than diving into lower-quality assets to find yield, the report recommended long-short strategies for investment-grade credit.

Mesman also warned about duration risk on government bonds.

“I think the risk of government bond yields going higher, particularly in the long end of the market — longer-dated government bond yields — that’s something that’s underappreciated,” he said.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Investment

Crypto Market Bloodbath Amid Broader Economic Concerns

Published

 on

The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.

The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.

The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.

Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.

Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.

Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.

The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version