Talk to Wisconsin dairy farmers about the ground-shifting events in their industry and it’s striking how rarely the new trade deal with Canada comes up.
That might surprise anyone who’s heard the dairy liberalization in the new North American trade agreement — which gave U.S. producers a bit more access to Canada’s tightly controlled dairy market, and limited the Canadian sector’s ability to export dairy products to the U.S. — described as a major development.
The 2018 deal has been characterized that way on both sides of the border: by Canadians unhappy with the new NAFTA, and in the U.S. by President Donald Trump as he campaigns in Wisconsin, a key presidential election swing state and dairy-producing region.
It could soon heat up again as a political issue. The U.S. has hinted its first lawsuit against Canada under the new pact might involve dairy, as Democrat and Republican politicians have written letters accusing Canada of unfairly implementing the deal in a way that discriminates against U.S. farmers.
But right now, down on the farm, based on conversations with American dairy operators of different political stripes, trade with Canada ranks low on the hierarchy of priorities.
America’s huge dairy sector generates tens of billions in revenue each year and regularly deals with abrupt and brutal price swings that dwarf the few hundred million in new revenues expected from Canada.
“It’s a drop in the bucket,” said Sarah Lloyd, a Democrat and dairy farmer who lives two hours west of Milwaukee, describing the new Canadian market access.
A tractor passes a sign expressing support for Wisconsin’s dairy farmers in Watertown, west of Milwaukee, on Aug. 18, 2020. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
A third-generation dairy farmer near Kenosha, who voted for Trump in 2016 and said he probably will again, Dave Daniels, said the new pact might help the overall market a bit.
But, “On my own bottom line it’s probably not going to make a lot of difference,” he said.
Lloyd Holterman said he’s heard detailed opinions about this agreement in one place — in Canada, when he visits for dairy conferences.
“They seemed to know more about it [in Canada] than I knew. [Farmers there] were upset … so I figured we probably got the better end of the deal,” said Holterman, who prefers not to divulge his voting intentions
“I don’t know how big a deal it was, really. … That’s a small [market in Canada].”
Dairy farmers in Wisconsin have considerable political power this year.
Why Trump needs Wisconsin farmers
Wisconsin, a swing state, will be decided not just by whether Trump wins a majority of votes in the rural, milk-producing areas — as he almost certainly will.
The other factor is whether Trump racks up enough of a lead here to offset his likely deficits in urban areas, like Milwaukee and Madison.
And the dairy deal with Canada is central to Trump’s re-election message here.
Trump supporters greeted Vice President Mike Pence as his motorcade headed to a dairy farm in Onalaska, Wis., on July 17 to promote the new North American trade deal. (Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel via AP)
In speeches last month in different parts of the country, Trump promoted the new NAFTA as a turning point — he said, in one, that Canada used to take advantage of the U.S. when it came to dairy, “but not anymore.”
At the Republican convention, his daughter Ivanka described the president constantly asking about dairy when getting briefed on the NAFTA negotiations: “[He would say], ‘Don’t let down those dairy farmers I met in Wisconsin. I don’t want them to like this deal; I want them to love it.”
Even if the Wisconsin farmers have limited expectations for the agreement, they do appear to like the fact a deal has been made. The industry is craving stability after a wild few years, and this pact helps in that regard.
WATCH | In 2017, Trump said Canada was doing ‘very unfair things’ to U.S. dairy farmers
U.S. president’s new ‘Buy American and Hire American’ executive order targets Canada’s dairy industry 1:24
More than half of U.S. dairy farms shut down over the last two decades and 2018 and 2019 were some of the hardest years on record.
The destabilizing forces included a dramatic plunge in prices. Whole milk prices dropped 33 per cent from 2014 to 2016, then remained low for years. Milk consumption has also declined. And there’s never-ending pressure to keep growing, keep innovating — or die.
“Highs, lows, highs, lows,” said Daphne Holterman, Lloyd’s wife, describing the unpredictability of U.S. dairy prices.
American farmers were happy it set limits on Canadians’ ability to sell protein powders on world markets: they argued that Canada was damaging the entire industry by dumping excess product at artificially low prices.
That’s the issue that first caught Trump’s attention in 2017 when dozens of Wisconsin farms lost their contract with a processor who couldn’t compete with what they perceive to be non-market Canadian rates.
“That hit Wisconsin pretty much right in the jaw,” Daniels said.
The U.S. dairy industry is huge. Its trade volume with Canada is, and will continue to be, comparably minor. (CBC News)
The agreement also gave Americans more access to dairy sales in Canada, which tightly controls the supply and prices of dairy products.
The U.S. International Trade Commission, tasked by Congress with analyzing the effect of American trade agreements, estimated that the pact would increase U.S. dairy output by a mere 0.1 per cent.
Lloyd Holterman, who farms near Milwaukee, calls U.S. dairy competition ‘brutal,’ with survival requiring constant innovation. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
It suggested exports to Canada would grow $227 million a year — which is an increase of exports to Canada of one-quarter to one-half of recent estimated annual volumes. That’s a significant change for Canada.
But it’s closer to pocket change for the U.S. American dairy farms generated approximately $40 billion in cash receipts last year.
A price plunge, then a pandemic
Dairy was hit hard by the commodities bust that sent prices plunging in the mid-2010s, touching everything from oil to food crops.
Then just as things seemed to be picking up after last year, the pandemic struck. Purchases froze up at schools, restaurants and workplaces, which account for nearly half of U.S. dairy consumption.
“The cows didn’t get the memo that said, ‘Hey, we’ve got COVID, slow down,'” said Mark Stephenson, a dairy-markets expert at the University of Wisconsin.
A view of Dave Daniels’ farm near Kenosha, Wis., which has stayed profitable by consolidating assets with neighbours and investing together in new technology. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
“We had a lot of milk that needed to be processed, that needed to have a home. And it’s not like corn — you obviously can’t keep it in the bin for a while, until you find a sale. It has to go.”
Farmers have long had to innovate, or get out of the business. Daniels and the Holtermans describe how they’ve merged their farms with partners, pooled their resources to buy better machines, and done everything from breed longer-living cows to installing equipment that cut the cost of feeding and veterinary services.
Lloyd Holterman said business is now picking up again. He got twice as much revenue last month as in May — people cooking at home are now using more butter, milk and cheese, and products originally destined for commercial establishments are being repackaged for home use.
Half the cost of producing milk goes to feeding the cows. The Holtermans, who run this farm west of Milwaukee, reduced long-term expenses by investing in this grain-feeding system. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
“[Tough times are] an opportunity to get better,” he said. “When things are really good, you get sloppy. … So we’ve actually done pretty well through the downturn.”
But he concedes the constant pressure to innovate can be tough.
“Our system of dairy production is brutal. It’s brutal. Nobody feels sorry for anybody that goes broke,” Holterman said. “That’s the way business is here. … The positive side is we have high quality and cheap prices.”
Some American farmers, including Sarah Lloyd, wish their industry were a bit more stable and are pushing for the U.S. to adopt Canadian-style controls on prices and supply volumes.
But the Holtermans and Daniels doubt that idea will fly in the U.S.; they say they prefer the less-regulated American system, arguing it encourages competition and innovation.
The big export market: Mexico
Another way U.S. farmers have survived the lean years is by expanding trade: export volumes have grown, over a generation, from negligible amounts to 18 per cent of total U.S. dairy production.
The largest market by far for U.S. dairy exports is Mexico, with Canada second.
Wisconsin dairy farmers were more worried that the bigger market to the south might slip away, amid tensions between Trump and Mexico, and his threats to rip up NAFTA.
“There was some offensive things said about Mexico as a country,” Lloyd Holterman said. “They, rightly, took offence to that.”
Sarah Lloyd, right, seen here with her husband Nels Nelson in 2017 on their farm two hours west of Milwaukee, calls the new Canada exports ‘a drop in the bucket’ compared to the major issues that need to change in her industry. (Marie Claudet/CBC)
But a representative of the U.S. dairy lobby in Washington said the new trade with Canada should make a difference. She said a tiny change in markets can have a ripple-effect on prices.
Now, said Shawna Morris, vice-president for trade policy at the U.S. National Milk Producers Federation, people will be scrutinizing whether Canada, in fact, lets more dairy in.
She and others were concerned that Canada has, in past trade agreements and in this one, made it too difficult for foreign companies to access new import quotas, leaving them unused.
Fair market access for our dairy industry was a key pillar of the <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/USMCA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#USMCA</a>. I’m calling on <a href=”https://twitter.com/USDA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@USDA</a> and <a href=”https://twitter.com/USTradeRep?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@USTradeRep</a> to hold Canada and Mexico accountable for their trade commitments to Iowa’s dairy farmers. <a href=”https://t.co/WddUf9Bbos”>pic.twitter.com/WddUf9Bbos</a>
“The U.S. negotiated really hard for this. It’s not full access to the Canadian market. It’s nowhere even close to it. But we definitely want to make sure we get what we thought we had on paper.”
Election predictions
So does this deal help Trump win Wisconsin again? Trump carried the state by a margin of one per cent last time, and polls show him behind now.
Daniels says it’s going to be tough.
Daphne Holterman, who runs a farm with her husband Lloyd near Milwaukee, says prices keep fluctuating wildly. (Alex Panetta/CBC)
What he hears from people in his area is that those who voted for Trump last time will vote for him again; he suspects, however, that Democratic turnout will spike in cities from its low 2016 level.
“It’s going to be a pretty slim margin if he does [win],” Daniels said.
Lloyd Holterman said he likes what Trump has done on taxes and deregulation. He assumes the state will be a tossup, with the vast majority voting as they did in 2016.
But “I can’t even predict,” he said. “48 hours is an eternity.”
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Employers and the union representing supervisors embroiled in a labour dispute that triggered a lockout at British Columbia’s ports will attempt to reach a deal when talks restart this weekend.
A spokesman from the office of federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon has confirmed the minister spoke with leaders at both the BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514, but did not invoke any section of the Canadian Labour Code that would force them back to talks.
A statement from the ministry says MacKinnon instead “asked them to return to the negotiation table,” and talks are now scheduled to start on Saturday with the help of federal mediators.
A meeting notice obtained by The Canadian Press shows talks beginning in Vancouver at 5 p.m. and extendable into Sunday and Monday, if necessary.
The lockout at B.C. ports by employers began on Monday after what their association describes as “strike activity” from the union. The result was a paralysis of container cargo traffic at terminals across Canada’s west coast.
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint against the employers for allegedly bargaining in bad faith, a charge that employers call a “meritless claim.”
The two sides have been without a deal since March 2023, and the employers say its final offer presented last week in the last round of talks remains on the table.
The proposed agreement includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term along with an average lump sum payment of $21,000 per qualified worker.
The union has said one of its key concerns is the advent of port automation in cargo operations, and workers want assurances on staffing levels regardless of what technology is being used at the port.
The disruption is happening while two container terminals are shut down in Montreal in a separate labour dispute.
It leaves container cargo traffic disrupted at Canada’s two biggest ports, Vancouver and Montreal, both operating as major Canadian trade gateways on the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
This is one of several work disruptions at the Port of Vancouver, where a 13-day strike stopped cargo last year, while labour strife in the rail and grain-handling sectors led to further disruptions earlier this year.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Judicial recounts in British Columbia’s provincial election should wrap up today, confirming whether Premier David Eby’s New Democrats hang onto their one-seat majority almost three weeks after the vote.
Most attention will be on the closest race of Surrey-Guildford, where the NDP were ahead by a mere 27 votes, a margin narrow enough to trigger a hand recount of more than 19,000 ballots that’s being overseen by a B.C. Supreme Court judge.
Elections BC spokesman Andrew Watson says the recounts are on track to conclude today, but certification won’t happen until next week following an appeal period.
While recounts aren’t uncommon in B.C. elections, result changes because of them are rare, with only one race overturned in the province in at least the past 20 years.
That was when Independent Vicki Huntington went from trailing by two votes in Delta South to winning by 32 in a 2009 judicial recount.
Recounts can be requested after the initial count in an election for a variety of reasons, while judicial recounts are usually triggered after the so-called “final count” when the margin is less than 1/500th of the number of votes cast.
There have already been two full hand recounts this election, in Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat, and both only resulted in a few votes changing sides.
A partial recount of votes that went through one tabulator in Kelowna Centre saw the margin change by four votes, while a full judicial recount is currently underway in the same riding, narrowly won by the B.C. Conservatives.
The number of votes changing hands in recounts has generally shrunk in B.C. in recent years.
Judicial recounts in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky in 2020 and Coquitlam-Maillardville in 2013 saw margins change by 19 and six votes respectively.
In 2005, there were a record eight recounts after the initial tally, changing margins by an average of 62 votes, while one judicial recount changed the margin in Vancouver-Burrard by seven.
The Election Act says the deadline to appeal results after judicial recounts must be filed with the court within two days after they are declared, but Watson says that due to Remembrance Day on Monday, that period ends at 4 p.m. Tuesday.
When an appeal is filed, it must be heard no later than 10 days after the registrar receives the notice of appeal.
A partial recount is also taking place in Prince George-Mackenzie to tally votes from an uncounted ballot box that contained about 861 votes.
The Prince George recount won’t change the outcome because the B.C. Conservative candidate there won by more than 5,000 votes.
If neither Surrey-Guildford nor Kelowna Centre change hands, the NDP will have 47 seats and the Conservatives 44, while the Greens have two seats in the 93-riding legislature.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
