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How will the global coronavirus pandemic end? – CBC.ca

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5 years ago

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This is an excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly roundup of eclectic and under-the-radar health and medical science news emailed to subscribers every Saturday morning. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do that by clicking here.

The coronavirus has infected more than a million people worldwide, and almost every country on earth has been hit by the pandemic with no clear end in sight.

A vaccine is at least a year away, and while effective treatments may come sooner, the global focus is now on containment efforts to prevent our health-care systems from being overwhelmed. 

But the question remains — how will the pandemic end?

Experts say there are several likely scenarios that could play out, but for the time being we’re at the whim of a virus that shows no signs of slowing down.

One solution depends on achieving an adequate level of immunity in the global population in order to stop the continued spread of the virus.

Dr. Yonatan Grad, an assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, wrote recently in an op-ed for STAT that there are two ways to achieve this: immunity from infection or immunity through vaccination. 

“We hope that when you get infected with the virus, you develop sufficient immune protection to prevent subsequent infection, at least for a little while,” he told CBC News.

Antibodies arise after someone has recovered from COVID-19, but the timing can vary between individuals. The World Health Organization says the average recovery time for mild cases is about two weeks and three to six weeks for patients with severe disease. Patients can still infect others for up to two weeks after symptoms disappear.

“A vaccine is, best case scenario, 12 to 18 months out,” Grad said. “And that’s again best case scenario. It should not be considered a given that we can come up with a vaccine.” 

So in the absence of a vaccine, how do we collectively achieve immunity?

“One possibility is to just let it go and have the epidemic run through the population. And we think that’s a bad idea, obviously, in that it would result in a large number of deaths and likely challenge or overwhelm the health-care infrastructure,” he said.

“Second, you could do what most of us are trying to do — half of the world’s population is in some form of physical distancing. By decreasing the contact with other people, we’re slowing the spread of the virus and flattening the curve.”

Is physical distancing effective enough?

Tarik Jašarević, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, told CBC News that while it’s too early to know when or even how the pandemic will end, the course of the outbreak will be determined by the action countries around the world take.

But that’s not a comforting thought for experts like Steven Hoffman, director of the Global Strategy Lab and a global health law professor at York University who studies pandemics.

“I’m not sure every government in the world has a clear end game in mind for its citizens. I haven’t seen any country that has articulated fully and transparently its specific strategy to get back to normality,” he said.

“That, for me, is worrisome. Although maybe the exit strategy is just to watch and see and make decisions on that basis.”

Almost four billion people are currently undergoing some form of physical distancing in response to the pandemic, but these measures aren’t long-term solutions.

Medical staff work on COVID-19 patients at the intensive care unit at Ambroise Pare clinic near Paris on Wednesday. Without a vaccine or treatment, the global focus is now on containment efforts to prevent our health-care systems from being overwhelmed. (Benoit Tessier/Reuters)

“Physical distancing measures can slow down the virus, so the health-care system can cope, but they will not stop this pandemic purely in their own right,” Jašarević at the WHO said.

“To turn the pandemic around, countries need to invest in a comprehensive and blended approach. To suppress and control epidemics, countries must isolate, test, treat and trace.”

Countries like China, South Korea and Singapore have all been successful with using this comprehensive approach to containing the spread.

But it’s not without its limitations.  

“The concern with this approach is that there will be a substantial amount of the population that remains susceptible,” Grad said, adding that any resurgence of the virus could be devastating. 

“If there were introductions of the virus into the population, you’d worry about outbreaks.” 

A woman drinks tea during self-isolation at home in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia on Monday. Almost four billion people are currently undergoing some form of physical distancing in response to the pandemic, but these measures aren’t long-term solutions. (Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters)

Raywat Deonandan, a global health epidemiologist and an associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said this approach will keep new cases at a “simmering boil” but alone is not a solution. 

“There is a threat if we were to return just en masse as society, the disease will come back,” he said. “Then we have to lock down again.”

Grad and his research team have also been modelling the effectiveness of this concept, which he calls “intermittent distancing.”

“If the problem with one-time distancing is that we risk resurgence, well then what about if you do distancing multiple times?” he said.

“Our results suggest that it would have to be multiple rounds of distancing if we wanted to try to address the problem that way and it would also require incredibly good surveillance in order to time it correctly.”

How can we end the pandemic sooner?

Jašarević said the WHO has received applications for 40 diagnostic tests, more than 50 vaccines are in development, and many clinical trials of therapeutics are already underway — with results expected in several weeks.

In the meantime, strengthening the surveillance of suspected and confirmed cases of COVID-19 is essential to the effectiveness of ongoing efforts to contain the spread of the virus until treatments or a vaccine are widely available.

But contact tracing is notoriously time consuming, and it can take days to confirm a case through testing, systematically identifying anyone who may have come into contact with them and then isolating them to prevent wider spread. 

Christophe Fraser at Oxford University says improving traditional contact tracing is especially important in the current pandemic, given that up to 50 per cent of COVID-19 transmissions occur before people even present symptoms. (Evan Tsuyoshi Mitsui/CBC)

That’s a problem researchers at the University of Oxford’s Big Data Institute in England are working to solve quickly, and their results were published in a paper in the journal Science earlier this week.

They’ve designed an app that can trace the locations of contacts through cell phone data and notify them individually that they have come into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19. 

“You realize with a pandemic of this scale that there are some really fast and effective measures needed to retrace who we’ve come into contact with,” Prof. Christophe Fraser at Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine said in an email to CBC News.  

“We’ve got to move beyond traditional contact tracing public health approaches to harness 21st century technology to take control of this unprecedented 21st century pandemic.”

Fraser said bolstering traditional contact tracing is especially important in the current pandemic, given that up to 50 per cent of COVID-19 transmissions occur before people even present symptoms. 

“Our mathematical models suggest we can use this approach to reduce transmission at any stage of the epidemic, for example to ease countries out of prolonged lockdown,” said Dr. David Bonsall, senior researcher and clinician at Oxford’s John Radcliffe Hospital.

“Once this mobile app is installed, we have the capability to send all those at-risk people an infectious person has come into contact with a message to go home and self-isolate.” 

Bonsall said the approach could protect health systems, save lives and bide time until vaccines and treatments could become widely available. 

“Together we can help to protect our health systems, save lives and livelihoods, and bide some time until vaccines and antiviral treatments become widely available.”

A visual representation of how a contact tracing mobile app could be effective in stopping the spread of COVID-19. (Oxford University Big Data Institute)

Grad, at Harvard, said the “clever approach” could amplify and improve contact tracing efforts, but it’s only one piece of the solution.

“Contact tracing with quarantine and isolation is one approach for containment,” he said. “But it would just be something you would need to keep on doing until you get population immunity in some way. It’s not in itself a long-term solution.” 

Grad said serological testing — blood tests that can detect if someone has been infected and has antibodies against the virus — is the next key factor in developing an effective treatment for COVID-19.

“It’s the critical piece,” he said.

To read the entire Second Opinion newsletter every Saturday morning, subscribe by clicking here.

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What’s the greatest holiday gift: lips, hair, skin? Give the gift of great skin this holiday season

Published

2 weeks ago

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October 31, 2024

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Give the gift of great skin this holiday season

Skinstitut Holiday Gift Kits take the stress out of gifting

Toronto, October 31, 2024 – Beauty gifts are at the top of holiday wish lists this year, and Laser Clinics Canada, a leader in advanced beauty treatments and skincare, is taking the pressure out of seasonal shopping. Today, Laser Clincs Canada announces the arrival of its 2024 Holiday Gift Kits, courtesy of Skinstitut, the exclusive skincare line of Laser Clinics Group.

In time for the busy shopping season, the limited-edition Holiday Gifts Kits are available in Laser Clinics locations in the GTA and Ottawa. Clinics are conveniently located in popular shopping centers, including Hillcrest Mall, Square One, CF Sherway Gardens, Scarborough Town Centre, Rideau Centre, Union Station and CF Markville. These limited-edition Kits are available on a first come, first served basis.

“These kits combine our best-selling products, bundled to address the most relevant skin concerns we’re seeing among our clients,” says Christina Ho, Senior Brand & LAM Manager at Laser Clinics Canada. “With several price points available, the kits offer excellent value and suit a variety of gift-giving needs, from those new to cosmeceuticals to those looking to level up their skincare routine. What’s more, these kits are priced with a savings of up to 33 per cent so gift givers can save during the holiday season.

There are two kits to select from, each designed to address key skin concerns and each with a unique theme — Brightening Basics and Hydration Heroes.

Brightening Basics is a mix of everyday essentials for glowing skin for all skin types. The bundle comes in a sleek pink, reusable case and includes three full-sized products: 200ml gentle cleanser, 50ml Moisture Defence (normal skin) and 30ml1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum. The Brightening Basics kit is available at $129, a saving of 33 per cent.

Hydration Heroes is a mix of hydration essentials and active heroes that cater to a wide variety of clients. A perfect stocking stuffer, this bundle includes four deluxe products: Moisture 15 15 ml Defence for normal skin, 10 ml 1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum, 10 ml Retinol Serum and 50 ml Expert Squalane Cleansing Oil. The kit retails at $59.

In addition to the 2024 Holiday Gifts Kits, gift givers can easily add a Laser Clinic Canada gift card to the mix. Offering flexibility, recipients can choose from a wide range of treatments offered by Laser Clinics Canada, or they can expand their collection of exclusive Skinstitut products.

 

Brightening Basics 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut, available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.

Hydration Heroes 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut – available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.
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Here is how to prepare your online accounts for when you die

Published

3 weeks ago

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October 24, 2024

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LONDON (AP) — Most people have accumulated a pile of data — selfies, emails, videos and more — on their social media and digital accounts over their lifetimes. What happens to it when we die?

It’s wise to draft a will spelling out who inherits your physical assets after you’re gone, but don’t forget to take care of your digital estate too. Friends and family might treasure files and posts you’ve left behind, but they could get lost in digital purgatory after you pass away unless you take some simple steps.

Here’s how you can prepare your digital life for your survivors:

Apple

The iPhone maker lets you nominate a “ legacy contact ” who can access your Apple account’s data after you die. The company says it’s a secure way to give trusted people access to photos, files and messages. To set it up you’ll need an Apple device with a fairly recent operating system — iPhones and iPads need iOS or iPadOS 15.2 and MacBooks needs macOS Monterey 12.1.

For iPhones, go to settings, tap Sign-in & Security and then Legacy Contact. You can name one or more people, and they don’t need an Apple ID or device.

You’ll have to share an access key with your contact. It can be a digital version sent electronically, or you can print a copy or save it as a screenshot or PDF.

Take note that there are some types of files you won’t be able to pass on — including digital rights-protected music, movies and passwords stored in Apple’s password manager. Legacy contacts can only access a deceased user’s account for three years before Apple deletes the account.

Google

Google takes a different approach with its Inactive Account Manager, which allows you to share your data with someone if it notices that you’ve stopped using your account.

When setting it up, you need to decide how long Google should wait — from three to 18 months — before considering your account inactive. Once that time is up, Google can notify up to 10 people.

You can write a message informing them you’ve stopped using the account, and, optionally, include a link to download your data. You can choose what types of data they can access — including emails, photos, calendar entries and YouTube videos.

There’s also an option to automatically delete your account after three months of inactivity, so your contacts will have to download any data before that deadline.

Facebook and Instagram

Some social media platforms can preserve accounts for people who have died so that friends and family can honor their memories.

When users of Facebook or Instagram die, parent company Meta says it can memorialize the account if it gets a “valid request” from a friend or family member. Requests can be submitted through an online form.

The social media company strongly recommends Facebook users add a legacy contact to look after their memorial accounts. Legacy contacts can do things like respond to new friend requests and update pinned posts, but they can’t read private messages or remove or alter previous posts. You can only choose one person, who also has to have a Facebook account.

You can also ask Facebook or Instagram to delete a deceased user’s account if you’re a close family member or an executor. You’ll need to send in documents like a death certificate.

TikTok

The video-sharing platform says that if a user has died, people can submit a request to memorialize the account through the settings menu. Go to the Report a Problem section, then Account and profile, then Manage account, where you can report a deceased user.

Once an account has been memorialized, it will be labeled “Remembering.” No one will be able to log into the account, which prevents anyone from editing the profile or using the account to post new content or send messages.

X

It’s not possible to nominate a legacy contact on Elon Musk’s social media site. But family members or an authorized person can submit a request to deactivate a deceased user’s account.

Passwords

Besides the major online services, you’ll probably have dozens if not hundreds of other digital accounts that your survivors might need to access. You could just write all your login credentials down in a notebook and put it somewhere safe. But making a physical copy presents its own vulnerabilities. What if you lose track of it? What if someone finds it?

Instead, consider a password manager that has an emergency access feature. Password managers are digital vaults that you can use to store all your credentials. Some, like Keeper,Bitwarden and NordPass, allow users to nominate one or more trusted contacts who can access their keys in case of an emergency such as a death.

But there are a few catches: Those contacts also need to use the same password manager and you might have to pay for the service.

___

Is there a tech challenge you need help figuring out? Write to us at onetechtip@ap.org with your questions.

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Pediatric group says doctors should regularly screen kids for reading difficulties

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3 weeks ago

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October 23, 2024

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The Canadian Paediatric Society says doctors should regularly screen children for reading difficulties and dyslexia, calling low literacy a “serious public health concern” that can increase the risk of other problems including anxiety, low self-esteem and behavioural issues, with lifelong consequences.

New guidance issued Wednesday says family doctors, nurses, pediatricians and other medical professionals who care for school-aged kids are in a unique position to help struggling readers access educational and specialty supports, noting that identifying problems early couldhelp kids sooner — when it’s more effective — as well as reveal other possible learning or developmental issues.

The 10 recommendations include regular screening for kids aged four to seven, especially if they belong to groups at higher risk of low literacy, including newcomers to Canada, racialized Canadians and Indigenous Peoples. The society says this can be done in a two-to-three-minute office-based assessment.

Other tips encourage doctors to look for conditions often seen among poor readers such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; to advocate for early literacy training for pediatric and family medicine residents; to liaise with schools on behalf of families seeking help; and to push provincial and territorial education ministries to integrate evidence-based phonics instruction into curriculums, starting in kindergarten.

Dr. Scott McLeod, one of the authors and chair of the society’s mental health and developmental disabilities committee, said a key goal is to catch kids who may be falling through the cracks and to better connect families to resources, including quicker targeted help from schools.

“Collaboration in this area is so key because we need to move away from the silos of: everything educational must exist within the educational portfolio,” McLeod said in an interview from Calgary, where he is a developmental pediatrician at Alberta Children’s Hospital.

“Reading, yes, it’s education, but it’s also health because we know that literacy impacts health. So I think that a statement like this opens the window to say: Yes, parents can come to their health-care provider to get advice, get recommendations, hopefully start a collaboration with school teachers.”

McLeod noted that pediatricians already look for signs of low literacy in young children by way of a commonly used tool known as the Rourke Baby Record, which offers a checklist of key topics, such as nutrition and developmental benchmarks, to cover in a well-child appointment.

But he said questions about reading could be “a standing item” in checkups and he hoped the society’s statement to medical professionals who care for children “enhances their confidence in being a strong advocate for the child” while spurring partnerships with others involved in a child’s life such as teachers and psychologists.

The guidance said pediatricians also play a key role in detecting and monitoring conditions that often coexist with difficulty reading such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, but McLeod noted that getting such specific diagnoses typically involves a referral to a specialist, during which time a child continues to struggle.

He also acknowledged that some schools can be slow to act without a specific diagnosis from a specialist, and even then a child may end up on a wait list for school interventions.

“Evidence-based reading instruction shouldn’t have to wait for some of that access to specialized assessments to occur,” he said.

“My hope is that (by) having an existing statement or document written by the Canadian Paediatric Society … we’re able to skip a few steps or have some of the early interventions present,” he said.

McLeod added that obtaining specific assessments from medical specialists is “definitely beneficial and advantageous” to know where a child is at, “but having that sort of clear, thorough assessment shouldn’t be a barrier to intervention starting.”

McLeod said the society was partly spurred to act by 2022’s “Right to Read Inquiry Report” from the Ontario Human Rights Commission, which made 157 recommendations to address inequities related to reading instruction in that province.

He called the new guidelines “a big reminder” to pediatric providers, family doctors, school teachers and psychologists of the importance of literacy.

“Early identification of reading difficulty can truly change the trajectory of a child’s life.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

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