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Huge state aid is dragging Canada out of worst-ever contraction – BNN

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Canada’s households are emerging from an historic downturn flush with cash from government aid, boding well for the nascent recovery.

Gross domestic product plunged by an annualized 38.7 per cent in the three months through June, adding to an 8.2 per cent drop in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. But household disposable income surged on the back of state transfers, much of which has yet to be spent.

The data suggest Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s aggressive spending has more than offset the impact of the recession on family finances, making the biggest contribution to a quick recovery and limiting potential long-term damage. Whether it’s enough to bring the economy back to normal remains an open question.

The second quarter will go down as by far the worst ever. But the collapse mostly reflects losses during one month — April — the nadir of the pandemic. Monthly GDP data supports the view that a sharp recovery is underway, with growth of 6.5 per cent in June, a record, and 3 per cent in July.

“The speed of the rebound seems out of sync with the confidence exuded by policy makers that it couldn’t happen this fast,” Derek Holt, an economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a report to investors. “It is, but stay tuned.”

Government transfers rose 88 per cent non-annualized in the quarter, the largest jump on record. Almost a third of household income, an unprecedented share, was from government transfers. That, along with a sharp pullback in household spending, pushed the savings rate to 28 per cent, the highest ever. That mirrors data from the U.S., where incomes surged early in the pandemic because of federal relief checks.

The improvement in household balance sheets contributed to strong GDP showings beginning in May, and should support consumer spending going into the second half, Jocelyn Paquet and Kyle Dahms, economists at National Bank Financial, said in a report to investors.

“Monthly figures published up to now are hinting at a +41.1 per cent annualized rebound” in the third quarter, they wrote. “But the pace of this recovery remains highly uncertain and dependent on the evolution of the pandemic both at home and abroad.”

But for now, the outlook is better. Oil prices have recovered, the country’s housing market is booming again amid historically low interest rates, and the federal government has pledged to keep the fiscal taps open into the recovery period — keeping disposable income elevated.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“Our tracking of high-frequency and alternative data signals the easy gains after the re-opening of the economy have largely been realized. We don’t expect to see a complete recovery in activity until at least late 2021, and anticipate an even longer road ahead for the labor market.”
–Andrew Husby

Another reason for optimism: Canada has also avoided a new wave of cases like the one that continues to hamper the expansion south of the border.

With July’s estimate of a 3 per cent increase, Canada’s economy is now at 94 per cent of February’s levels, or put another way, has recouped around two-thirds of lost output from the height of the pandemic

Still, Canada’s economy isn’t expected to fully make up the losses until 2022. Labor data next week will show to what extent workers are transitioning away from government support and back into paid employment.

“The concern has long been that still exceptional softness in labor markets (the unemployment rate was still in double-digits at 10.9 per cent in July) would outlast exceptional policy supports,” Nathan Janzen, an economist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a report to investors.

The Canadian dollar pared gains on the report, and was trading 0.2 per cent higher at C$1.3105 against its U.S. counterpart at 11:06 a.m. Toronto time.

The second quarter was truly bad, with historic declines across the board. Household consumption plunged by an annualized 43 per cent, housing investment was down 48 per cent, and non-residential business capital spending was down 57 per cent.

Exports and imports plummeted by more than half. The drop in imports was larger than the collapse in exports, which means the trade sector actually contributed positively to growth in the second quarter.

The second quarter contraction is worse than the U.S. and Germany, but better than other parts of Europe like the U.K., Italy and Spain.

Friday’s data show that Canadians are eating, drinking and smoking more than they did pre-pandemic, but largely spending less on other things. Transportation services are down 81 per cent from the end of last year, while expenditures outside the country fell 90 per cent. Purchases on clothing, accommodation and restaurants have also seen big hits.

Despite the grim numbers in the rear-view mirror, economists are starting to raise 2020 Canadian forecasts. Bank of Montreal Chief Economist Doug Porter said his team will be revising upward its full-year GDP forecast for the first time in four months on the better-than-expected rebound.

–With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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