Canada’s households are emerging from an historic downturn flush with cash from government aid, boding well for the nascent recovery.
Gross domestic product plunged by an annualized 38.7 per cent in the three months through June, adding to an 8.2 per cent drop in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. But household disposable income surged on the back of state transfers, much of which has yet to be spent.
The data suggest Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s aggressive spending has more than offset the impact of the recession on family finances, making the biggest contribution to a quick recovery and limiting potential long-term damage. Whether it’s enough to bring the economy back to normal remains an open question.
The second quarter will go down as by far the worst ever. But the collapse mostly reflects losses during one month — April — the nadir of the pandemic. Monthly GDP data supports the view that a sharp recovery is underway, with growth of 6.5 per cent in June, a record, and 3 per cent in July.
“The speed of the rebound seems out of sync with the confidence exuded by policy makers that it couldn’t happen this fast,” Derek Holt, an economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a report to investors. “It is, but stay tuned.”
Government transfers rose 88 per cent non-annualized in the quarter, the largest jump on record. Almost a third of household income, an unprecedented share, was from government transfers. That, along with a sharp pullback in household spending, pushed the savings rate to 28 per cent, the highest ever. That mirrors data from the U.S., where incomes surged early in the pandemic because of federal relief checks.
The improvement in household balance sheets contributed to strong GDP showings beginning in May, and should support consumer spending going into the second half, Jocelyn Paquet and Kyle Dahms, economists at National Bank Financial, said in a report to investors.
“Monthly figures published up to now are hinting at a +41.1 per cent annualized rebound” in the third quarter, they wrote. “But the pace of this recovery remains highly uncertain and dependent on the evolution of the pandemic both at home and abroad.”
But for now, the outlook is better. Oil prices have recovered, the country’s housing market is booming again amid historically low interest rates, and the federal government has pledged to keep the fiscal taps open into the recovery period — keeping disposable income elevated.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
“Our tracking of high-frequency and alternative data signals the easy gains after the re-opening of the economy have largely been realized. We don’t expect to see a complete recovery in activity until at least late 2021, and anticipate an even longer road ahead for the labor market.” –Andrew Husby
Another reason for optimism: Canada has also avoided a new wave of cases like the one that continues to hamper the expansion south of the border.
With July’s estimate of a 3 per cent increase, Canada’s economy is now at 94 per cent of February’s levels, or put another way, has recouped around two-thirds of lost output from the height of the pandemic
Still, Canada’s economy isn’t expected to fully make up the losses until 2022. Labor data next week will show to what extent workers are transitioning away from government support and back into paid employment.
“The concern has long been that still exceptional softness in labor markets (the unemployment rate was still in double-digits at 10.9 per cent in July) would outlast exceptional policy supports,” Nathan Janzen, an economist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a report to investors.
The Canadian dollar pared gains on the report, and was trading 0.2 per cent higher at C$1.3105 against its U.S. counterpart at 11:06 a.m. Toronto time.
The second quarter was truly bad, with historic declines across the board. Household consumption plunged by an annualized 43 per cent, housing investment was down 48 per cent, and non-residential business capital spending was down 57 per cent.
Exports and imports plummeted by more than half. The drop in imports was larger than the collapse in exports, which means the trade sector actually contributed positively to growth in the second quarter.
The second quarter contraction is worse than the U.S. and Germany, but better than other parts of Europe like the U.K., Italy and Spain.
Friday’s data show that Canadians are eating, drinking and smoking more than they did pre-pandemic, but largely spending less on other things. Transportation services are down 81 per cent from the end of last year, while expenditures outside the country fell 90 per cent. Purchases on clothing, accommodation and restaurants have also seen big hits.
Despite the grim numbers in the rear-view mirror, economists are starting to raise 2020 Canadian forecasts. Bank of Montreal Chief Economist Doug Porter said his team will be revising upward its full-year GDP forecast for the first time in four months on the better-than-expected rebound.
Most job search advice is cookie-cutter. The advice you’re following is almost certainly the same advice other job seekers follow, making you just another candidate following the same script.
In today’s hyper-competitive job market, standing out is critical, a challenge most job seekers struggle with. Instead of relying on generic questions recommended by self-proclaimed career coaches, which often lead to a forgettable interview, ask unique, thought-provoking questions that’ll spark engaging conversations and leave a lasting impression.
Your level of interest in the company and the role.
Contributing to your employer’s success is essential.
You desire a cultural fit.
Here are the top four questions experts recommend candidates ask; hence, they’ve become cliché questions you should avoid asking:
“What are the key responsibilities of this position?”
Most likely, the job description answers this question. Therefore, asking this question indicates you didn’t read the job description. If you require clarification, ask, “How many outbound calls will I be required to make daily?” “What will be my monthly revenue target?”
“What does a typical day look like?”
Although it’s important to understand day-to-day expectations, this question tends to elicit vague responses and rarely leads to a deeper conversation. Don’t focus on what your day will look like; instead, focus on being clear on the results you need to deliver. Nobody I know has ever been fired for not following a “typical day.” However, I know several people who were fired for failing to meet expectations. Before accepting a job offer, ensure you’re capable of meeting the employer’s expectations.
“How would you describe the company culture?”
Asking this question screams, “I read somewhere to ask this question.” There are much better ways to research a company’s culture, such as speaking to current and former employees, reading online reviews and news articles. Furthermore, since your interviewer works for the company, they’re presumably comfortable with the culture. Do you expect your interviewer to give you the brutal truth? “Be careful of Craig; get on his bad side, and he’ll make your life miserable.” “Bob is close to retirement. I give him lots of slack, which the rest of the team needs to pick up.”
Truism: No matter how much due diligence you do, only when you start working for the employer will you experience and, therefore, know their culture firsthand.
“What opportunities are there for professional development?”
When asked this question, I immediately think the candidate cares more about gaining than contributing, a showstopper. Managing your career is your responsibility, not your employer’s.
Cliché questions don’t impress hiring managers, nor will they differentiate you from your competition. To transform your interaction with your interviewer from a Q&A session into a dynamic discussion, ask unique, insightful questions.
Here are my four go-to questions—I have many more—to accomplish this:
“Describe your management style. How will you manage me?”
This question gives your interviewer the opportunity to talk about themselves, which we all love doing. As well, being in sync with my boss is extremely important to me. The management style of who’ll be my boss is a determining factor in whether or not I’ll accept the job.
“What is the one thing I should never do that’ll piss you off and possibly damage our working relationship beyond repair?”
This question also allows me to determine whether I and my to-be boss would be in sync. Sometimes I ask, “What are your pet peeves?”
“When I join the team, what would be the most important contribution you’d want to see from me in the first six months?”
Setting myself up for failure is the last thing I want. As I mentioned, focus on the results you need to produce and timelines. How realistic are the expectations? It’s never about the question; it’s about what you want to know. It’s important to know whether you’ll be able to meet or even exceed your new boss’s expectations.
“If I wanted to sell you on an idea or suggestion, what do you need to know?”
Years ago, a candidate asked me this question. I was impressed he wasn’t looking just to put in time; he was looking for how he could be a contributing employee. Every time I ask this question, it leads to an in-depth discussion.
Other questions I’ve asked:
“What keeps you up at night?”
“If you were to leave this company, who would follow?”
“How do you handle an employee making a mistake?”
“If you were to give a Ted Talk, what topic would you talk about?”
“What are three highly valued skills at [company] that I should master to advance?”
“What are the informal expectations of the role?”
“What is one misconception people have about you [or the company]?”
Your questions reveal a great deal about your motivations, drive to make a meaningful impact on the business, and a chance to morph the questioning into a conversation. Cliché questions don’t lead to meaningful discussions, whereas unique, thought-provoking questions do and, in turn, make you memorable.
Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.
CALGARY – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported a third-quarter profit of $2.27 billion, down from $2.34 billion in the same quarter last year.
The company says the profit amounted to $1.06 per diluted share for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared with $1.06 per diluted share a year earlier.
Product sales totalled $10.40 billion, down from $11.76 billion in the same quarter last year.
Daily production for the quarter averaged 1,363,086 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 1,393,614 a year ago.
On an adjusted basis, Canadian Natural says it earned 97 cents per diluted share for the quarter, down from an adjusted profit of $1.30 per diluted share in the same quarter last year.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 90 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.
CALGARY – Cenovus Energy Inc. reported its third-quarter profit fell compared with a year as its revenue edged lower.
The company says it earned $820 million or 42 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down from $1.86 billion or 97 cents per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $14.25 billion, down from $14.58 billion in the same quarter last year.
Total upstream production in the quarter amounted to 771,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 797,000 a year earlier.
Total downstream throughput was 642,900 barrels per day compared with 664,300 in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Cenovus says its funds flow amounted to $1.05 per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from adjusted funds flow of $1.81 per diluted share a year earlier.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.
