Iconic South African Mines Are Ravaged Economy's Unlikely Savior - Bloomberg

Economy

Iconic South African Mines Are Ravaged Economy's Unlikely Savior – Bloomberg

Published

3 years ago

July 6, 2021

Harry Miller

The world’s deepest precious-metals mines, together with giant iron-ore and coal pits are providing an unexpected boon to a South African economy slowly recovering from its biggest contraction in a century.

Surging demand and prices for commodities including platinum-group metals, iron ore, manganese and coal are generating record mining-company profits and bolstering government revenue. That’s even as decades of dwindling output and investor reluctance to build new mines blights prospects for the industry.

“Last year, we were concerned about the lack of space to support the economy amid the severe hit from the pandemic,” Elna Moolman, a South Africa economist at Standard Bank Group Ltd., said in an interview. “The recovery in commodities demand and their prices is providing very strong support to the economy.”

President Cyril Ramaphosa on Monday flagged the “significant role” the sector will play in accelerating South Africa’s recovery from last year’s coronavirus-induced slump.

The mining industry often takes center stage when South Africa’s economic fortunes dip.

Its gold industry — once the world’s largest — underpinned the nation’s transformation into the continent’s most industrialized economy. Bullion sales cushioned the economy against the impact of the oil-price and dollar collapse in the 1970s and as international outrage against apartheid rule a decade later resulted in massive capital outflows. The commodities boom in the 2000s provided the Treasury with a war chest to withstand the devastating effects of the global financial crisis.

The mining industry’s output surged 18.1% in the first quarter compared to the previous three months, helping buoy growth more than forecast. The sector accounted for 9% of gross domestic product during the period.

Last year, the mining industry, which employs more than 451,000 people, accounted for 8.2% of GDP, according to the Minerals Council South Africa, an industry lobby group.

Revenue for the fiscal year through March exceeded budget estimates for the first time in five years as the industry drove an increase in corporate income tax collections, and led to the shortfall on the main budget coming in below forecast.

That’s allowed the Treasury to reduce the amount of debt on sale at its weekly auctions for a second time since March and bodes well for its plans to achieve a primary surplus in fiscal 2024-25 and stabilize debt at 88.9% of GDP the following year.

The world’s top platinum suppliers’ exports of platinum-group metals surged 40% in 2020, even as Covid-19 disrupted operations and curbed output, the national statistics agency said in April. Sales of PGMs, which are in demand as stricter emission rules boost their use in vehicle autocatalysts, raked in 190 billion rand ($13.3 billion) amid a rally in palladium and rhodium prices.

South Africa’s terms of trade — a measure of export prices relative to import costs — increased 12% over the past year and more than 20% since the end of 2018, as the global economic recovery from the pandemic pushed up demand for commodities, according to HSBC Bank Plc economist David Faulkner.

The trade windfall is “one of the strongest gains on record, with past experience highlighting how South Africa’s macro fortunes can tilt on favorable commodity prices and a benign external backdrop,” Faulkner said in a note. “The result has been a period of respite, relief and rally.”

Still, a failure by Ramaphosa’s government to take advantage of the commodity rally to expedite a raft of reforms and attract investment to boost growth and create new jobs could counter the recent fiscal gains. The South African Reserve Bank forecasts that the commodities price rally may be temporary.

“These are economic challenges that will require sustained policy action to reverse,” Faulkner said. “They also leave South Africa with balance sheet vulnerabilities at risk of being exposed should the recent rise in metal prices prove transitory or risk appetite sour.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“Rising commodity prices provide a welcome respite for the budget. They are, however, not a panacea. The government will still have to follow through with its consolidation plans to stabilize the debt trajectory.”

— Boingotlo Gasealahwe, Africa Economist

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Economy

China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

Published

3 hours ago

April 24, 2024

Harry Miller

China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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Economy

German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

Published

4 hours ago

April 24, 2024

Harry Miller

(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest.

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

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Economy

Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

Published

10 hours ago

April 23, 2024

Harry Miller

When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

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