Health
ICU beds main challenge in COVID-19 projections – The Telegram
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. —
Peter Jackson
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
The short-term outlook for COVID-19 spread in Newfoundland and Labrador looks promising under current health emergency measures.
But even the best-case long-term projections suggest a likely squeeze for intensive care unit (ICU) beds by the fall.
The projections were presented to reporters and to the public Wednesday by Dr. Proton Rahman, a clinical scientist with Eastern Health. The information was assembled through various local agencies with help from the University of Toronto and the Canadian Institute of Health Information (CIHI).
Even with current emergency health measures, long-term modelling showed the province needing about 200 ICU beds at peak coronavirus levels in November. That’s three times what is currently available, although there would still be enough ventilators.
Overall bed capacity would not be exceeded in this scenario, but Rahman said ICU care depends primarily on the number of nurses and specialists available.
“It’s not just about beds,” he said. “With each individual bed there’s human resources involved, such as respiratory technicians, which is going to be critical to this. We really have to rethink, to some extent, how to deliver these services.”
A more dire scenario presented Wednesday, in which half the population got sick, showed catastrophic results, with not nearly enough beds, staff or ventilators to go around.
“We will simply not be able to cope without drastic changes, and even then it is unlikely we would be successful,” Health Minister Dr. John Haggie said during a later video address.
Insufficient data
Rahman warned that the CIHI models are likely “off a fair bit.”
“We’re looking well beyond the time frame that we have any certainty about.”
He said Newfoundland and Labrador is at least three weeks behind other provinces in terms of usable date.
In particular, while tragic in themselves, the fact there has only been two deaths so far makes it impossible to offer accurate projections of mortality rates.
He said the higher rates of high blood pressure and diabetes in this province don’t bode well, since those underlying conditions increase the chance of severe symptoms or death.
But the virus can affect anyone.
“The experience that’s been reported in numerous states in America and also in Canada (is that) a lot of young, healthy people are actually ending up in the ICU. Most don’t, but it can happen to anyone,” Rahman said. “The people that we’re worried about the most are the old, the vulnerable, people with multiple medical conditions, but anyone can get in trouble and you really have to respect what this virus can do.”
Rahman said the Caul’s Funeral Home cluster — a mid-March exposure that accounts for 75 per cent of subsequent COVID-18 hospitalizations — also makes it difficult to interpret the province’s numbers with any accuracy.
Models are usually based on more evenly distributed infections.
Buying time
Rahman said emergency measures imposed by the province could buy time to accommodate demand ahead of the surge.
“The time is key in terms of the health care capacity to be able to manage large amounts of patients,” he said. “The other reason why time is important, if we’re looking at an 18-month to two-year time period, lots could happen in terms of maybe a potential therapy, something that’s been repurposed in terms of a drug coming into it, some antibodies that you can take or possibly a vaccine. You’re buying time for potentially a therapy and you’re also buying time in terms of our health care capacity to adapt to this.”
Rahman wouldn’t speculate on how long current health measures would be in place, especially if the peak doesn’t arrive until November.
But he cited a scenario posed by some experts in which individual measures could be lifted temporarily and re-imposed if the number of cases rises again.
Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Janice Fitzgerald was not available for questions during the Wednesday evening briefing.
For now, Rahman said, it’s important to stay put.
“It just takes one small indiscretion to create a large increase,” he said.
“So, please, please follow the health guidelines put in place by Dr. Fitzgerald.”
With files from David Maher
Peter Jackson is a Local Initiative Reporter covering health care for The Telegram
peter.jackson@thetelegram.com
Health
CFIA continues surveillance for HPAI in cattle, while sticking with original name for disease – RealAgriculture
The Canada Food Inspection Agency will continue to refer to highly pathogenic avian influenza in cattle as HPAI in cattle, and not refer to it as bovine influenza A virus (BIAV), as suggested by the American Association of Bovine Practitioners earlier this month.
Dr. Martin Appelt, senior director for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, in the interview below, says at this time Canada will stick with “HPAI in cattle” when referencing the disease that’s been confirmed in dairy cattle in multiple states in the U.S.
The CFIA’s naming policy is consistent with the agency’s U.S. counterparts’, as the U.S. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has also said it will continue referring to it as HPAI or H5N1.
Appelt explains how the CFIA is learning from the U.S. experience to-date, and how it is working with veterinarians across Canada to stay vigilant for signs of the disease in dairy and beef cattle.
As of April 19, there has not been a confirmed case of HPAI in cattle in Canada. Appelt says it’s too soon to say if an eventual positive case will significantly restrict animal movement, as is the case with positive poultry cases.
This is a major concern for the cattle industry, as beef cattle especially move north and south across the U.S. border by the thousands. Appelt says that CFIA will address an infection in each species differently in conjunction with how the disease is spread and the threat to neighbouring farms or livestock.
Currently, provincial dairy organizations have advised producers to postpone any non-essential tours of dairy barns, as a precaution, in addition to other biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of cattle contracting HPAI.
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Health
Toronto reports 2 more measles cases. Use our tool to check the spread in Canada – Toronto Star
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Canada has seen a concerning rise in measles cases in the first months of 2024.
By the third week of March, the country had already recorded more than three times the number of cases as all of last year. Canada had just 12 cases of measles in 2023, up from three in 2022.
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Cancer Awareness Month
Posted on: Apr 18, 2024
April is Cancer Awareness Month
As we recognize Cancer Awareness Month, we stand together to raise awareness, support those affected, advocate for prevention, early detection, and continued research towards a cure. Cancer is the leading cause of death for Métis women and the second leading cause of death for Métis men. The Otipemisiwak Métis Government of the Métis Nation Within Alberta is working hard to ensure that available supports for Métis Citizens battling cancer are culturally appropriate, comprehensive, and accessible by Métis Albertans at all stages of their cancer journey.
Receiving a cancer diagnosis, whether for yourself or a loved one, can feel overwhelming, leaving you unsure of where to turn for support. In June, our government will be launching the Cancer Supports and Navigation Program which will further support Métis Albertans and their families experiencing cancer by connecting them to OMG-specific cancer resources, external resources, and providing navigation support through the health care system. This program will also include Métis-specific peer support groups for those affected by cancer.
With funding from the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) we have also developed the Métis Cancer Care Course to ensure that Métis Albertans have access to culturally safe and appropriate cancer services. This course is available to cancer care professionals across the country and provides an overview of who Métis people are, our culture, our approaches to health and wellbeing, our experiences with cancer care, and our cancer journey.
Together, we can make a difference in the fight against cancer and ensure equitable access to culturally safe and appropriate care for all Métis Albertans. Please click on the links below to learn more about the supports available for Métis Albertans, including our Compassionate Care: Cancer Transportation program.
I wish you all good health and happiness!
Bobbi Paul-Alook
Secretary of Health & Seniors
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