If prices keep rising, a nightmare scenario for the US economy is a real possibility - CNN | Canada News Media
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If prices keep rising, a nightmare scenario for the US economy is a real possibility – CNN

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New York (CNN Business)There’s no denying it: Inflation is here. Consumer prices surged 7% over the past year. Housing prices have continued to soar, too. But the question on the minds of many economists and Wall Street strategists is whether something even worse could be in the cards: prices rising as the economy slows.

That’s the textbook definition of stagflation, and it would be the worst nightmare for consumers, investors and the Federal Reserve. Not to mention President Joe Biden and the rest of the Democratic leadership in Washington. Just ask former president Jimmy Carter, who lost to Ronald Reagan in his 1980 re-election bid as the economy suffered from surging gas prices.
Stagflation is a difficult problem to overcome, especially for central bankers at the Fed and around the rest of the world. There are few tools to combat both inflation and a slowdown at the same time. The strongest fix for an economic slump is to lower interest rates, but those have been at near zero for almost two years.
Raising rates to fight inflation, as the Fed has signaled it may soon do, could slow the economy. That’s a major concern right now in the United Kingdom, where central bankers raised rates last month to combat higher prices.
Rate hikes also tend to put more pressure on long term bond yields, which have already risen in anticipation of the Fed’s moves. Those tend to be partly inflationary because they make it more expensive to borrow money.
The good news is that the economy is still growing at a healthy clip as it recovers from the pandemic recession. Consumers just keep on spending. And even if the Fed does begin to hike interest rates, it is unlikely to do so at such a rapid pace or scale that it would do too much damage to the economy in the near-term.
“There’s enough stimulus in the system to not worry about the ‘stag’ part of this equation for many quarters to come,” Jim Reid, global head of thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a report last week.

Economic hiccup or could Omicron cause another slowdown?

However, growth did slow in the third quarter, raising some alarm bells. The market is expecting that the economy bounced back in the fourth quarter and will continue to do so through 2022. Still, lingering supply chain worries and surging cases of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 could throw a wrench into the recovery hopes.
That increases the chances that the Fed could misjudge the moment and tighten policy too aggressively if it starts to worry about the price stability (inflation) part of its dual mandate instead of the maximum employment (jobs) part.
“There’s always the risk of a policy error. The Fed is carrying a monetary policy nuclear football with them, so there is a potential for a mistake,” said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist.
That said, Hooper is not overly worried that Fed chair Jerome Powell is about to make a major monetary flub.
“You always want to be vigilant about something like stagflation, but we don’t have high unemployment right now and economic growth is above trend,” she added. “Do we run the risk of stagflation in a rising rate environment? Yes, but it’s unlikely.”
The Fed is in uncharted territory. Central bankers have had to deal with many crises in recent decades, but there is no modern playbook for how to handle the threat of runaway inflation following a global pandemic.
“The Fed’s monetary policy framework is essentially being tested in real time,” said John Leer, chief economist with Morning Consult, a data intelligence firm. “There is not a lot of guidance.”

Spending still strong despite inflation

At this point, it appears that rising prices are more a source of consumer complaints and alarmist headlines and not — as yet — a serious economic concern.
That’s why experts say investors need to watch and see if consumers actually slow their spending because of inflation. That’s when it would be the time to worry about stagflation.
“Consumers may get to a point where they’re not going to pay higher prices and that causes demand destruction. We’re not there yet,” said Mike Skordeles, US macro strategist with Truist Financial. “Stagflation could be a concern if higher prices persist for an extended period of time.”
Skordeles also thinks the stagflation worries are “misplaced” right now because growth is still relatively strong and the market has confidence in the Fed.
So as long as retail sales remain robust, the case can be made that although shoppers may not be grinning about inflation, they are bearing it for now.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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