Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell explains the Fed’s half-point cut in interest rates.
Two hours after the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint statement declaring their readiness to take action to support the economy in the face of risks from the coronavirus, the Federal Reserve pulled the trigger, lowering its benchmark rate by 50 basis points.
It was the Fed’s first inter-meeting move since 2008.
“The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” the Fed said in a 10 a.m. statement Tuesday announcing its decision that had unanimous support. “However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target rate for the federal funds rate by ½ percentage point, to 1-1 ¼ percent.”
All of a sudden, the reality of revisiting the zero lower bound, which the Fed now refers to as the effective lower bound, is no longer off in the distance. It could be right around the corner.
And this at a time when Fed officials are still saying that the economy and monetary policy are “in a good place” and the fundamentals are sound.
So what do policy makers do when the good place deteriorates into something mediocre and the fundamentals turn sour?
Forward guidance, which I like to call talk therapy? Large-scale asset purchases? Unfortunately, the Fed goes to war with the tools it has, not the tools it might want or wish to have.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury has plunged below 1%.
The market has already determined that interest rates will be lower for longer, which is why the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
were nonplussed by the Fed rate cut. After suffering their worst week last week since the financial crisis, stocks staged a powerful rally Monday before slumping again on Tuesday.
Fiscal-policy measures, which entail tax cuts and government spending, will be difficult to enact in this highly charged political environment. There is little evidence that the Republicans and Democrats can put partisan differences aside to work together.
Yes, there is bipartisan support for an emergency funding package to address the virus, but the federal government has to make up for lost time and a failure to provide even adequate testing kits.
Global financial institutions are pledging to work together to address the public health emergency and its economic consequences. But so far, monetary policy remains the only viable game in town, with central banks in Australia and Malaysia lowering interest rates as well on Tuesday. Other countries are certain to follow suit as the virus spreads and crisis deepens.
It has already been widely noted that monetary policy is not suited to address supply shocks. While emanating from the supply side — the virus has disrupted production worldwide — the dampening effect on business and consumer spending is within the Fed’s demand-side toolkit to address.
The Fed should get credit for acting pre-emptively on Tuesday. While the actual effect of the virus on economic growth can’t be assessed until it is reported in the aggregate statistics, international organizations and private forecasters had been slashing their growth forecasts for this year.
Futures markets were once again way ahead of the Fed. In recent days, fed funds futures had priced in a series of rate cuts by year end — and two by the time of the March 17-18 meeting in two weeks.
Just last week, several Fed officials suggested they were in no hurry to adjust interest rates.
In a Feb. 25 speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, after saying that monetary policy was in a good place, mentioned the risks arising from the coronavirus and possible spillover effects from China to the rest of the global economy. But he said it was “still too soon to even speculate about either the size or the persistence of these effects, or whether they will lead to a material change in the outlook.”
It may have been too soon to speculate, but one week was clearly enough time to act!
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
