I’m the chief economist for a $5 billion real estate data and title company. Here are 5 things you need to know about the housing market now - MarketWatch | Canada News Media
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I’m the chief economist for a $5 billion real estate data and title company. Here are 5 things you need to know about the housing market now – MarketWatch

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Mark Fleming

Housing has become increasingly unaffordable to millions of Americans — with home prices and mortgage rates continuing to rise (see the lowest rates you may qualify for now here). So – as part of our series where we ask prominent economists and real estate pros their take on the housing market now – we talked to Mark Fleming. Fleming – the chief economist for title, settlement, real estate data and risk solutions company First American Financial Corporation – has analyzed and forecast the real estate and mortgage markets for 20 years. Before becoming the chief economist at First American, Fleming developed insights and analytical products for CoreLogic as well as valuation models at Fannie Mae and today his research expertise includes real estate and urban economics and mortgage risk. So we asked Fleming: What do today’s buyers and sellers need to know about the housing market?

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Mortgage rates are higher, but they’re still not high

Though they’re significantly higher than three months ago, which reduces house-buying power, they’re around 6% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which Fleming says is a far cry from high. “Mortgage rates are higher but by historical standards are not high,” says Fleming. He has a point: This chart from the St. Louis Fed shows the curve of mortgage rates since 1975.  (See the lowest rates you may qualify for here.)

Affordability is increasingly a challenge for buyers

Home price appreciation has been rapid  in the last two years. Indeed, according to data from the National Association of Realtors, the median sales price for an existing home was up 17% from last year. “That’s important because it’s been practically impossible for house-buying power to keep up, and consequently, affordability has been declining,” says Fleming. 

Fleming says house price appreciation, as measured by many of the house price indices reported in the media, have a significant lag, sometimes as much as six months. “It’ll be a few more months before the house price indices reflect how prices have reacted to the rapid increase in mortgage rates in the second quarter,” says Fleming.

Prepare for slower home price growth

But just because affordability is a challenge, doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall. Fleming says his research shows that during rising mortgage rate eras like we’re experiencing now, the number of home sales does tend to decline but house prices generally don’t. “Fewer sales and less price appreciation is the expectation,” says Fleming.

The housing market is cooling

Watch inventory levels and the amount of seller price reductions on listings. “These are the leading indicators of where prices will go and how the increase in mortgage rates have affected demand. More inventory and more seller price reductions signal a cooling market,” says Fleming. For sellers, this means a reset on the expectation of how quickly their home will sell. “Mere days on the market were never normal. In fact, the old adage used to be that sellers should typically expect their home may take up to 3 months on the market to sell. Of course, we’re a long way from that yet, but sellers should expect it to take longer to sell their home. For buyers, expect less fierce competition to buy a home,” says Fleming. (See the lowest rates you may qualify for here.)

Consider an ARM, and be a smart shopper

Given the current market, Fleming says it’s easy to lose focus amid shifts in mortgage rates and other housing dynamics. “The reality is some basic steps remain important and are not much different than any market. Shop around for the best mortgage and in a rising-rate market, investigate adjustable-rate mortgages for the lower rate benefit. Make your choices based on home as shelter, rather than an investment return opportunity and have patience,” says Fleming.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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