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IMF downgrades global economy outlook for 2023

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The International Monetary Fund downgraded its 2023 outlook for the world economy, suggesting that next year “will feel like a recession” for many thanks to central bank reactions around the world.

The lending agency of 190 countries said Tuesday morning that global economic growth would be a meagre 2.7 per cent in 2023, down from the 2.9 per cent they’d estimated in July. For comparison, the world economy grew by six per cent in 2021. The IMF cited Russia’s war in Ukraine, chronic inflation pressures, punishing interest rates and the lingering consequences of the global pandemic.

“The worst is yet to come,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

The 2023 growth estimate in Canada thus shrunk to 1.5, down three-tenths of a percentage point from the last estimate made in July. Canada’s growth estimate for 2022, meanwhile, fell to 3.3 per cent from July’s 3.4 per cent.

The IMF left unchanged the modest 2022 global growth estimate of 3.2 per cent.

Economies stalling

Next year’s growth estimate for the United States — Canada’s largest trading partner — shrunk to just one per cent. Their economy is stalling, along with those of China and Europe, said Gourinchas.

The 19-country Euro-bloc will grow only 0.5 per cent in 2023 as it reels from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and resulting energy prices, predicted the IMF.

China, a co-founding member of the IMF, was predicted to see the sharpest contraction of 3.2 per cent this year and 4.4 per cent in the next, down from 8.1 per cent in 2021. Business disruptions caused by Beijing’s Draconian zero-COVID policy and crack-down on excessive real estate lending will be to blame, said Gourinchas.

Each country is squaring up against the consequences of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which brought the world economy to a halt and necessitated massive government spending and low borrowing rates. Those measures fuelled a surprisingly quick and quality recovery from the pandemic recession. It comes, however, at a high cost.

 

9 in 10 Canadians cutting back on spending amid inflation: Angus Reid survey

A new survey from the Angus Reid Institute suggests the vast majority of Canadians are spending less as prices rise — and most say interest rate increases will negatively affect their finances.

Central banks are today dramatically raising interest rates to stem inflation risk and ease consumer supply chain pressure. Canada’s central bank raised its shot-term rate five times so far throughout 2022. This risks a sharp economic slowdown and recession.

Likewise, higher borrowing rates in the United States have supported global investment in the country and raised the value of the U.S. dollar, thus making U.S. exports more expensive and heightening inflation pressures world wide.

An overly aggressive U.S. central bank could “drive the world economy into an unnecessarily harsh contraction,” said Maurice Obstfeld, a former IMF chief economist who now teaches at the University of California, Berkeley.

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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