In 2022, a country’s national security and economic vitality center around talent. Leadership in China, Russia and other countries have taken steps to help ensure their nations have the scientists and engineers needed in the 21st century. Analysts say the United States carries natural advantages in the global competition for talent but risks falling behind because it is too difficult for talented foreign-born individuals to stay or immigrate to America. Congress has the opportunity to change that in legislation headed to a House-Senate conference committee.
Background: On March 30, 2022, “The House by unanimous consent disagreed to the Senate amendment to H.R. 4521—America COMPETES Act of 2022 and requested a conference with the Senate,” reported the House Press Gallery. “The Chair said that appointment of conferees on H.R. 4521 would be made at a later time.”
On February 4, 2022, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the America COMPETES Act 222 to 210, but it garnered only one Republican vote. In June 2021, the Senate passed a similar bill that focused on support for producing more semiconductors in the United States and grants for research and manufacturing in different parts of the country. The House bill is approximately 3,000 pages but contains provisions unique from the Senate bill, including a few changes to immigration law to help the U.S. economy retain foreign-born scientists and engineers.
First, the bill creates an exemption from annual green card limits and backlogs for foreign nationals with a Ph.D. in STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) fields. An additional exemption from green card limits includes individuals with a master’s degree “in a critical industry,” such as semiconductors.
Second, the bill creates a temporary visa for qualifying foreign-born entrepreneurs— from Rep. Zoe Lofgren’s (D-CA) LIKE Act—and includes a way for entrepreneurs to earn lawful permanent residence “if the start-up entity meets certain additional benchmarks.” Innovations are often realized through entrepreneurship, with immigrant examples including Zoom (video conferencing), Moderna (biomedical research) and Tesla (electric vehicles).
Third, measures in the bill fund scholarships for U.S. students in STEM fields by charging $1,000 supplemental fees for those receiving a green card or status under the legislation. The bill also includes small measures that would make it easier to retain health care professionals and attract international students.
Russia: Following the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government has tried to retain its information technology (IT) and scientific talent since it represents a source of wealth creation and national security. “Already, Russian talent is rushing for the exits, in what might represent the seventh great wave of Russian emigration over the past century,” writes the Washington Post’sCatherine Rampell. “An estimated 50,000 to 70,000 IT specialists alone have recently left, according to a Russian technology trade group, which predicts another 100,000 might leave by the end of April. Others in the outbound stampede include entrepreneurs, researchers and artists. . . The Russian government hasn’t yet blocked emigration, but it is trying to slow the flow by interrogating those who leave or offering enticements to tech workers who stay.” Rampell recommends using provisions in the House bill to “Drain Putin’s Brains.”
A good example of the type of person who would represent America’s gain (but Russia’s loss) is Gleb Yushin. Yushin graduated with a B.A. in physics from the Polytechnic Institute in Saint Petersburg, Russia and came to America as an international student. He earned a Ph.D. in materials science from North Carolina State University. Yushin’s research helped lead to battery materials now used to improve energy storage for many products. He became a co-founder of Sila Nanotechnologies, a company valued today at more than $3 billion. He teaches the next generation of students in America as an engineering and materials professor at Georgia Tech.
China: Like Russia, China recognizes how valuable high-tech talent is to a nation. “Chinese leaders understand the extent to which the United States benefits from international talent inflows,” writes Remco Zwetsloot in a report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They therefore celebrate America’s flawed immigration system and fear reforms that would improve U.S. talent attraction and retention. Commenting on U.S. retention of Chinese STEM students, the head of the CCP’s Central Talent Work Coordination Group has complained that ‘the number of top talents lost in China ranks first in the world.’” Zwetsloot points out, “The deputy editor of China Daily USA, a government newspaper, said that expansion of the U.S. employment-based immigration system ‘would pose a huge challenge for China, which has been making great efforts to attract and retain talent.’”
The United States: In its Final Report, presented at a Congressional hearing, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (AI) recommended changes to immigration law as one of the best ways for the United States to address challenges from China and other countries. In a summary of “Win the global talent competition,” the report states:“The United States risks losing the global competition for scarce AI expertise if it does not cultivate more potential talent at home and recruit and retain more existing talent from abroad.”
The last few years have shown it is challenging to predict which innovations will become vital. Katalin Karikó produced the underlying research breakthrough that made messenger RNA possible for vaccines to combat Covid-19. She earned her Ph.D. in Hungary but spent years in America on an uncertain career path, first as a postdoctoral researcher, before her work became recognized as groundbreaking. Approximately 56% of postdoctoral researchers work on temporary visas, with many in biological sciences, medical sciences, engineering and research and development.
Assimilating the talents of immigrant scientists and engineers has reaped great dividends for America for decades. “A number of the earliest U.S. winners of the Nobel Prize in physics were Jewish scientists who fled Europe after the rise of Hitler and Mussolini,” noted a National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) analysis. “These scientists were crucial in America becoming the first nation to develop the atomic bomb.
“In 1954 the Atomic Energy Act established an award to recognize scientific achievements in atomic energy. The first winner of the award was the Italian-born Enrico Fermi. After his death, the award became known as the Enrico Fermi Award, and five of the first 8 winners were immigrants. Four of the nuclear scientists who came to the United States from Europe in the 1930s and later received a Nobel Prize for physics were Felix Bloch (1952), born in Switzerland, Emilio Segre (1959), born in Italy, Maria Mayer (1963), born in Poland, and Eugene Wigner (1963), born in Hungary.”
Today, the United States is losing top talent. “The number of international students from India studying at Canadian colleges and universities increased 182% between 2016 and 2019 while at the same time, the enrollment of Indian students in master’s level science and engineering programs at U.S. universities fell almost 40%,” according to a recent NFAP analysis. “Indian student enrollment at Canadian colleges and universities increased nearly 300% between the 2015-16 and 2019-20 academic years.”
Although international students in Canada can gain permanent residence within one or two years, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimates it could take up to 195 years for Indian immigrants to get a green card in America in the employment-based second preference (EB-2). Canada has no per-country limit or low annual limits for employment-based immigrants as in the United States.
Canada is benefiting from Indian talent diverting from U.S. universities, notes Toronto-based immigration lawyer Peter Rekai. He cites the inability of Indian scientists and engineers to find a “reliable route to U.S. permanent residence” and the ease of doing so in Canada.
A House-Senate conference committee will determine whether America continues with the status quo or takes steps to enhance national security and make U.S. companies more competitive.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
