Federal public servants warned the government two years ago that large increases to immigration could affect housing affordability and services, internal documents show.
Documents obtained by The Canadian Press through an access-to-information request show Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada analyzed the potential effects immigration would have on the economy, housing and services, as it prepared its immigration targets for 2023 to 2025.
The deputy minister, among others, was warned in 2022 that housing construction had not kept up with the pace of population growth.
“In Canada, population growth has exceeded the growth in available housing units,” one slide deck reads.
“As the federal authority charged with managing immigration, IRCC policy-makers must understand the misalignment between population growth and housing supply, and how permanent and temporary immigration shapes population growth.”
Immigration accounts for nearly all population growth in Canada, given the country’s aging demographics.
The federal government ultimately decided to increase the number of permanent residents Canada welcomes each year to 500,000 in 2025, a decision that drew considerable attention and scrutiny. It means in 2025, Canada will welcome nearly twice as many permanent residents as it did in 2015.
The document reveals federal public servants were well aware of the pressures high population growth would have on housing and services.
“Rapid increases put pressure on health care and affordable housing,” public servants warned. “Settlement and resettlement service providers are expressing short-term strain due to labour market conditions, increased levels and the Afghanistan and Ukraine initiatives.”
Housing affordability has now become a political liability for the Liberal government. The Conservatives have gained considerable momentum over the last year as the party pounces on affordability issues, while avoiding the issue of immigration in particular. These pressures have forced the Liberal government to refocus its efforts on housing policy and begin to address the spike in international students with new rules.
Recent data shows Canada’s pace of population growth continues to set records as the country brings in a historic number of temporary residents as well, largely through international student and temporary foreign worker programs.
The country’s population grew by more than 430,000 during the third quarter of 2023, marking the fastest pace of population growth in any quarter since 1957.
Experts spanning from Bay Street to academic institutions have warned that Canada’s strong population growth is eroding housing affordability, as demand outpaces supply.
The Bank of Canada has offered similar analysis. Deputy governor Toni Gravelle delivered a speech in December warning that strong population growth is pushing rents and home prices upward.
Public opinion polls also show Canadians are increasingly concerned about the pressure immigration is putting on services, infrastructure and housing, leading to waning support for high immigration.
The Liberal government has defended its immigration policy decisions, arguing that immigrants help bring about economic prosperity and help with the country’s demographics as the population ages.
However, amid the heightened scrutiny of the Liberal government’s immigration policy, Immigration Minister Marc Miller levelled out the annual target at 500,000 permanent residents for 2026.
The documents from 2022 note that Canada’s immigration targets have exceeded the recommendations of some experts, including the Century Initiative, an organization that advocates for growing the country’s population to 100 million by the end of the century.
However, attention is now shifting from these targets to the steep rise in non-permanent residents. Between July and October, about three-quarters of Canada’s population growth came from temporary residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers.
That trend is raising alarms about the increase in businesses’ reliance on low-wage migrant workers and the luring of international student by shady post-secondary institutions.
Mikal Skuterud, an economics professor at the University of Waterloo who specializes in immigration policy, says the federal government appears to have “lost control” of temporary migration flows.
Unlike the annual targets for permanent residents, the number of temporary residents is dictated by demand for migrant workers and international students.
He also notes there is a link between the targets for permanent residents and the flow of temporary residents.
“To the extent that you increase permanent numbers, and migrants realize the way you get a PR is to come here as a temporary resident … then migrants are incentivized to kind of come and try their luck,” he said.
Skuterud, who has been a vocal critic of the federal government’s immigration policy, says the benefits of high immigration have been exaggerated by the Liberals.
He said that starting around 2015, when the Liberal government was first elected, a narrative developed in Canada that “immigration was kind of a solution to Canada’s economic growth problems.”
And while the professor says that narrative is one that people like to believe, he notes higher immigration does little when it comes to increasing living standards, as measured by real GDP per capita.
Public servants at IRCC are in agreement, the released documents suggest.
“Increasing the working age population can have a positive impact on gross domestic product, but little effect on GDP per capita,” public servants noted.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 11, 2024.
NEW GLASGOW, N.S. – Police in New Glasgow, N.S., say a 44-year-old woman faces fraud charges after funds went missing from the Pictou East Progressive Conservative Association.
New Glasgow Regional Police began the investigation on Oct. 7, after Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston reported that an undisclosed amount of money had gone missing from his riding association’s account.
Police allege that a volunteer who was acting as treasurer had withdrawn funds from the association’s account between 2016 and 2024.
The force says it arrested Tara Amanda Cohoon at her Pictou County, N.S., residence on Oct. 11.
They say investigators seized mobile electronic devices, bank records and cash during a search of the home.
Cohoon has since been released and is to appear in Pictou provincial court on Dec. 2 to face charges of forgery, uttering a forged document, theft over $5,000 and fraud over $5,000.
Police say their investigation remains ongoing.
Houston revealed the investigation to reporters on Oct. 9, saying he felt an “incredible level of betrayal” over the matter.
The premier also said a volunteer he had known for many years had been dismissed from the association and the party.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
PICTOU, N.S. – A Nova Scotia excavation company has been fined $80,000 after a worker died when scaffolding collapsed on one of its job sites.
In a decision released Wednesday, a Nova Scotia provincial court judge in Pictou, N.S., found the failure by Blaine MacLane Excavation Ltd. to ensure scaffolding was properly installed led to the 2020 death of Jeff MacDonald, a self-employed electrician.
The sentence was delivered after the excavation company was earlier found guilty of an infraction under the province’s Occupational Health and Safety Act.
Judge Bryna Hatt said in her decision she found the company “failed in its duty” to ensure that pins essential to the scaffolding’s stability were present at the work site.
Her decision said MacDonald was near the top of the structure when it collapsed on Dec. 9, 2020, though the exact height is unknown.
The judge said that though the excavation company did not own the scaffolding present on its job site, there was no evidence the company took steps to prevent injury, which is required under legislation.
MacDonald’s widow testified during the trial that she found her husband’s body at the job site after he didn’t pick up their children as planned and she couldn’t get in touch with him over the phone.
Julie MacDonald described in her testimony how she knew her husband had died upon finding him due to her nursing training, and that she waited alone in the dark for emergency responders to arrive after calling for help.
“My words cannot express how tragic this accident was for her, the children, and their extended family,” Hatt wrote in the sentencing decision.
“No financial penalty will undo the damage and harm that has been done, or adequately represent the loss of Mr. MacDonald to his family, friends, and our community.”
In addition to the $80,000 fine, the New Glasgow-based company must also pay a victim-fine surcharge of $12,000 and provide $8,000 worth of community service to non-profits in Pictou County.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Investigators found the remains of a 77-year-old American man on Wednesday at the scene of a fire that destroyed a hotel in western Newfoundland on the weekend.
Eugene Earl Spoon, a guest at the hotel, was visiting Newfoundland from Kansas. His remains were found Wednesday morning during a search of the debris left behind after the fire tore through the Driftwood Inn in Deer Lake, N.L., on Saturday, the RCMP said in a news release.
“RCMP (Newfoundland and Labrador) extends condolences to the family and friends of the missing man,” the news release said.
Spoon was last seen Friday evening in the community of about 4,800 people in western Newfoundland. The fire broke out early Saturday morning, the day Spoon was reported missing.
Several crews from the area fought the flames for about 16 hours before the final hot spot was put out, and police said Wednesday that investigators are still going through the debris.
Meanwhile, the provincial Progressive Conservative Opposition reiterated its call for a wider review of what happened.
“Serious questions have been raised about the fire, and the people deserve answers,” Tony Wakeham, the party’s leader, said in a news release Wednesday. “A thorough investigation must be conducted to determine the cause and prevent such tragedies in the future.”
The party has said it spoke to people who escaped the burning hotel, and they said alarm and sprinkler systems did not seem to have been activated during the fire. However, Stephen Rowsell, the Deer Lake fire chief, has said there were alarms going off when crews first arrived.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
