In many countries, people are more negative about the economy amid COVID-19 than during Great Recession - Pew Research Center | Canada News Media
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In many countries, people are more negative about the economy amid COVID-19 than during Great Recession – Pew Research Center

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Stock and commodity prices on the wall of the Australian Stock Exchange in Sydney as Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks on Sept. 2, 2020. (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Global attitudes about the state of the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak are more negative in some countries than they were during the Great Recession, according to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 10 countries during both crises. But people are also more upbeat about the prospect of a rebound than they were after the financial meltdown more than a decade ago.

In April, the International Monetary Fund predicted the economic downturn resulting from the coronavirus outbreak would be far graver than the Great Recession. With global gross domestic product now expected to contract by 4.9% in 2020, the magnitude of this recession exceeds that of 11 years ago, when year-on-year global GDP growth contracted by 0.1%.

This analysis compares economic attitudes during the coronavirus outbreak with those at the start of the Great Recession. It uses data from Pew Research Center’s Summer 2020 Global Attitudes Survey, conducted across 10 countries between June 10 and Aug. 3, 2020, among 10,416 respondents. The post also includes data from the Center’s 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2019 Global Attitudes Surveys.

Here are the questions used for this report, along with responses, and its methodology.

Across the 10 countries Pew Research Center surveyed in both 2020 and 2008 or 2009, a median of 80% now say their country’s economy is faring badly, compared with a median of 72% who said the same in 2008-2009. However, there is considerable variation by country.

In four nations – Australia, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom – significantly more now say the economic situation in their country is bad than did during the last recession. In Australia, for example, economic attitudes are more than twice as negative in 2020 as they were in 2008.

By contrast, South Koreans and Americans are now less discouraged by their countries’ economic situation than they were in 2008, although by smaller margins.

In Canada, Germany, Japan and France, the shares who gave their countries’ economies low marks in 2020 are roughly the same as those that had negative assessments in 2008.

In many countries, positive attitudes about the economy dropped more steeply after the coronavirus hit than during the Great Recession

In nine of the countries for which Pew Research Center has polling data for 2007, 2008 or 2009, 2019, and 2020, positive assessments of national economies between 2007 and 2008-2009 fell by a median of 15 percentage points. Between 2019 and 2020, the median decline expanded to 27 points.

In five countries, the downturn in positive assessments of economic conditions during the coronavirus outbreak outdid the decreases seen between 2007 and 2008. In Germany, South Korea, Japan, Italy and France, assessments of the national economy slumped more during the current economic downturn than in the Great Recession. In some of these countries, the declines seen between 2007 and 2008 were the start of a longer downward trend in economic attitudes, as many of the countries were affected by the European debt crisis. Germany, for instance, saw a relatively modest drop in the shares who rated the country’s economic performance positively between 2007 and 2008, but in 2009, that share plunged to an all-time low of only 28%.

By contrast, the decline in British views of their economy was steeper between 2007 and 2008 than between 2019 and 2020 by 10 percentage points, and there too, assessments grew increasingly negative in the years immediately after 2008.

In three countries – the United States, Canada and Spain – the current downturns in economic attitudes mirrored those seen during the Great Recession. However, in Spain, economic attitudes continued to deteriorate after 2008, as the country became increasingly affected by economic decline spurred by the debt crisis.

In many countries, optimism about economic recovery is more widespread now than during the financial crisis

On balance, publics are much more optimistic in 2020 about their national economies improving over the next 12 months than they were in 2008.

Economic optimism has improved the most in Spain, where 48% say they expect conditions to improve over the next year compared with only 18% in 2008. In seven of the eight countries surveyed during both years, economic optimism increased. But a smaller share of people in South Korea, which was an early epicenter of the pandemic, say they expect economic conditions to improve now than did in 2008.

These differences in attitudes are fairly consistent with expert predictions about recovery. In June 2020, the IMF estimated the global economy would rebound from the 4.9% contraction predicted for 2020, with global GDP estimated to grow by 5.4% – not entirely making up the loss projected for 2020, but recovering at an even clip. By contrast, in April 2008, just before the 2008 survey, they expected the global economy to fall into a recession by 2009.

Note: Here are the questions used for this report, along with responses, and its methodology.

Mara Mordecai  is a research assistant focusing on global attitudes research at Pew Research Center.
Shannon Schumacher  is a research associate focusing on global attitudes research at Pew Research Center.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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September 19, 2024

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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September 19, 2024

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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September 18, 2024

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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