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Independents aren't a unified political bloc. Here's what they really think – CNN

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(CNN)Political independents are among the most heavily scrutinized groups in American politics. They’re also, as a new analysis of CNN’s most recent polling shows, not much of a bloc at all: Their backgrounds and viewpoints cover a wide spectrum.

A dive into independents’ views highlights two basic principles for thinking about their role in the nation’s politics. First, it shows the limits of treating “independents” as a single, centrist political bloc — or even as an ideologically coherent one. Second, however, the poll also shows that independents are still notably different from self-identified partisans in some key ways, and that the issues where they break away from those partisan structures are often critical stress points.
The vast majority of so-called independents, pollsters have consistently found, feel at least some kinship to one party or the other. In CNN’s poll, more than 9 in 10 independents, when asked, said they leaned at least somewhat toward either Democrats or Republicans.
These “leaners” have much more in common with their favored parties than they do with other independents who lean the opposite way. As a case in point, 90% of Democratic-leaning independents in the CNN poll who voted last year said they had voted for President Joe Biden, while 84% of Republican-leaning independents who voted said they had cast their ballots for former President Donald Trump.
Partisan-leaning independents, perhaps unsurprisingly, are less supportive than their partisan counterparts of congressional leaders, a difference that’s especially stark on the GOP side. In the CNN poll, an 83% majority of Democrats and a 69% majority of Democratic leaners approved of the way Democratic leaders in Congress were handling their jobs. Across the aisle, 58% of Republicans approved of the way GOP leaders in Congress are handling their jobs, but just 29% of Republican leaners agreed.
Notably, however, there’s far less of a difference between partisans and leaners in their views of the opposing party — disapproval of GOP leaders was about similarly high among Democrats (85%) and Democratic-leaning independents (81%), while disapproval of Democratic leaders was shared by most Republicans (94%) and Republican-leaning independents (90%).
Independent registered voters are less likely to say they’re already enthusiastic about voting in 2022 than are partisans, a dynamic that’s especially notable on the Democratic side. Among registered voters, similar shares of Democrats (31%) and Republicans (32%) describe themselves as “extremely enthusiastic.” But just one-quarter of Republican leaners, and only 15% of Democratic leaners, share that sentiment.
There are demographic difference between partisans and independents as well. Democrats are mostly female and about evenly divided between Whites and people of color, the poll found, while Democratic-leaners are predominantly White and closer to evenly split along gender lines.
Democrats are also somewhat likelier than Democratic-leaning independents to have college degrees. Republicans are more overwhelmingly White than are Republican-leaning independents, and are more likely to describe themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians.
Leaners and partisans also diverge in some places on their political priorities, but the two parties see internal divides over different sets of issues. Republican-leaning independents are 12 percentage points likelier than Republicans to say it’s very important that the government takes aggressive action on climate change, while the gap between Democratic-leaning independents and Democrats is only half as big. Similarly, there’s more of a divide on the GOP side over the importance of investing in infrastructure or stemming undocumented immigration into the US.
By comparison, there’s more contrast within the broader Democratic coalition about the importance of enacting stronger laws to counteract racist policies and institutions. Democrats are 13 points likelier than Democratic-leaners to call this very important, compared with a 6-point gap on the GOP side.
Similarly, Democrats are 16 points likelier than Democratic leaners to place high importance on passing legislation that would expand access to voting, while Republicans and Republican-leaners are largely agreed in finding the the issue unimportant.
The differences between partisans and leaners are generally more muted when it comes to Covid-19. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have similar views about the trajectory of the pandemic and report taking similar levels of personal precautions, while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents also share comparable views with each other.
On policy issues, however, the Democratic side shows somewhat greater divides. Democrats are most likely to say that, generally speaking, vaccine mandates are an acceptable way to increase the vaccination rate (80%), followed by Democratic leaners (64%) and then Republicans and Republican leaners (25% and 23%, respectively).
That dynamic repeats in regard to specific vaccine policies: Democrats are more universally supportive than Democratic-leaning independents, while there’s relatively little distinction between Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. For instance, 81% of Democrats support workplace vaccine mandates, compared with 71% of Democratic leaners and 27% of both Republicans and Republican leaners.
To the extent that independents are united as a single bloc, it’s largely in their general sense of dissatisfaction. In the CNN poll, conducted through August and early September, independents gave negative ratings to President Joe Biden (54% disapprove), as well as both parties’ leaders in Congress (75% disapprove of the Republicans and 62% of the Democrats). Overall, 77% said they’re not well-represented in government. They were also pessimistic about how things are going in the country, with 72% saying things are going badly.
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from August 3 through September 7 among a random national sample of 2,119 adults initially reached by mail. It included 782 political independents, 361 of whom leaned toward the Democratic Party and 400 of whom leaned toward the Republican Party. Interviews were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points; among the full sample of political independents, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

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Venezuelan government suspends negotiations with opposition

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 Venezuela on Saturday said it would suspend negotiations with the opposition that were set to resume this weekend, after Cape Verde extradited Colombian businessman Alex Saab, a Venezuelan envoy, to the United States on money laundering charges.

The announcement was made by Socialist party legislator Jorge Rodriguez, who heads the government’s negotiating team. Rodriguez said the Venezuelan government would not attend the talks set to begin on Sunday.

The Venezuelan government in September named Saab – who was arrested in June 2020 when his plane stopped in Cape Verde to refuel – as a member of its negotiating team in talks with the opposition in Mexico, where the two sides are looking to solve their political crisis.

Rodriguez, reading from a statement, called the decision to suspend negotiations “an expression of our deepest protest against the brutal aggression against the person and the investiture of our delegate Alex Saab Moran.”

Opposition leader Juan Guaido condemned the decision.

“With this irresponsible suspension of their assistance in Mexico, they evade once again urgent attention for the country, which currently suffers from extreme poverty of 76.6%,” he said on Twitter. Guaido said he would continue to insist on finding a solution to the country’s crisis.

Venezuela, in a Twitter post by the Ministry of Communications, denounced the extradition as a “kidnapping.”

Hours after Saab’s extradition, Venezuela revoked the house arrest of six former executives of refiner Citgo, a U.S. subsidiary of state oil company PDVSA, two sources with knowledge of the situation and a family member told Reuters.

The U.S. Justice Department charged Saab in 2019 in connection with a bribery scheme to take advantage of Venezuela’s state-controlled exchange rate. The U.S. also sanctioned him for allegedly orchestrating a corruption network that allowed Saab and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to profit from a state-run food subsidy program.

Saab’s lawyers have called the U.S. charges “politically motivated.”

Cape Verde national radio reported the extradition on Saturday. The government of Cape Verde was not immediately available to comment.

A U.S. Justice Department spokesperson confirmed Saab’s extradition and said he is expected to make his initial court appearance on Monday in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

In a Twitter post, Colombian President Ivan Duque called Saab’s extradition “a triumph in the fight against drug trafficking, money laundering and corruption by the dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro.”

The former Citgo executives, who were arrested in November 2017 after being summoned to a meeting at PDVSA headquarters in Caracas, were taken from their homes to one of the headquarters of the intelligence police, two sources said on Saturday.

The six former executives had been released from jail and put on house arrest in April.

The group is made up of five naturalized U.S. citizens and one permanent resident. The U.S. government has repeatedly demanded their release.

“My father cannot be used as a bargaining chip,” said Cristina Vadell, daughter of former executive Tomeu Vadell. “I’m worried for his health, even more given the country’s coronavirus cases.”

The Ministry of Communications and the Attorney General’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

(Reporting by Mayela Armas and Deisy Buitrago in Caracas and Julio Rodrigues in Praia; Additional reporting by Daphne Psaledakis in Washington; Writing by Bate Felix and Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Leslie Adler)

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Politics Briefing: Trudeau to visit Tk'emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation next week – The Globe and Mail

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Hello,

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has accepted an invitation to visit Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation on Monday, after not visiting the community two weeks ago on the first National Day of Truth and Reconciliation.

The B.C. First Nation had previously said that Mr. Trudeau did not response to an invitation to attend a ceremony near the former Kamloops Indian Residential School to mark the inaugural event. Mr. Trudeau apologized last week for travelling to Tofino for a vacation on that day instead, calling it a mistake that he regrets. He said he was looking forward to visiting the community.

Monday’s visit will not be a public event, according to a press release.

People listen as drummers begin to play after a moment of silence during a Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc ceremony to honour residential school survivors and mark the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, in Kamloops, B.C., on Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021.

DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press

Mr. Trudeau’s office also confirmed Friday that the swearing-in ceremony for his new cabinet will take place on Oct. 26, and that Parliament will resume a month later on Nov. 22.

The release from the Prime Minister’s Office said that early priorities for the government will include introducing legislation to ban conversion therapy, 10-day paid sick leave for all federally regulated workers, accelerating climate action and working with Indigenous communities on reconciliation.

There will also be a focus on vaccination against COVID-19: the government outlined five vaccination commitments in the first 100 days, which includes ensuring everyone 12 and up who travels by air or rail in Canada has had their shots.

Speculation continues about which MPs will be in the new Liberal cabinet, though Mr. Trudeau promised last month that his cabinet will once again be gender-balanced, continuing a trend established in his first two mandates. He’s also confirmed that Chrystia Freeland will remain Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister.

The party lost four female cabinet ministers in the last election: three who did not win re-election and one incumbent who chose not to run again.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. Today’s newsletter is co-written with Menaka Raman-Wilms. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

Opposition parties and military observers are criticizing the federal government for not disclosing the latest sexual misconduct investigation into a senior military officer during the recent election campaign. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan and acting chief of the defence staff General Wayne Eyre were notified about the investigation into Lieutenant-General Trevor Cadieu on Sept. 5, but neither the military nor government disclosed the information publicly at the time.

Canada could retaliate against American companies should the U.S. go too far with a Buy American approach, suggested Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, after meetings on Thursday with her counterparts in the G20 and International Monetary Fund. U.S. President Joe Biden said this summer that Buy American provisions would be an important part of boosting a postpandemic recovery.

David Amess, a Conservative MP in the U.K, died on Friday after being stabbed during a meeting with constituents in Essex, England. A 25-year-old man has been arrested and a knife recovered. From the CBC.

Ontario launches its digital vaccine passport app on Friday, a week ahead of the initial Oct. 22 target date. The province has had a paper-based proof of vaccination system since Sept. 22, and the new scannable app moves Ontario to a system like the ones already in place in B.C. and Quebec.

The U.S. will announce on Friday that it plans to reopen its land borders on Nov. 8 to non-essential vaccinated travellers, according to a White House official.

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

The Prime Minister is in private meetings in Ottawa on Friday, according to his public itinerary.

LEADERS

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto on Friday morning, where he delivered remarks to the Ontario Building Trades Convention.

No public itineraries were issued by the other leaders on Friday.

HOW TO BE A PRIME MINISTER

From Governing Canada, A Guide to the Tradecraft of Politics by Michael Wernick (Published by On Point Press, an imprint of UBC Press)

The Politics Briefing newsletter is featuring excerpts from Governing Canada, a new book by Michael Wernick, the former clerk of the privy council. Our focus is a key chapter, Advice to a Prime Minister. (Parliamentary reporter Kristy Kirkup reported on the project here.)

Today’s concluding excerpt sums up Mr. Wernick’s advice to Prime Ministers:

“The tenure of our prime ministers has ranged from a few months to 21 years. In the “modern era” of politics, the attention and the pressures are unrelenting, and at some point personal burnout and weariness by the electorate will set in. However long you hold the office, every week will be an opportunity to make a difference. If you are mindful of what you want to accomplish and pay attention to time management, to team dynamics, and to your own personal resilience, you will get a lot done and leave important legacies. Try not to govern one day at a time, fighting fires and feeding media cycles. Managing the short-term challenges is just a shield, one that lets you aim higher and bend the curve – of history.”

DATA DIVE WITH NIK NANOS

Nik Nanos, the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, writes about how the 2021′s federal election was a wake-up call for Canada’s leaders – but awakening to what? “The campaign should make us ask whether it’s time for a rethink of our parliamentary democracy – and remind us that Canada is not immune to populist politics.”

OPINION

Gary Mason (The Globe and Mail) on how the Prairies are showing Canada what a COVID-19 disaster looks like: “Thanks to the governments’ slow adoption of vaccine passports and other measures designed to halt the spread of the virus, the unvaccinated have not been convinced to do what is necessary – which has produced the bedlam we are now witnessing.”

Diane Fu and Emile Dirks (contributors to The Globe and Mail) on how Ottawa may have emerged a loser after Meng Wanzhou’s release, but it can still challenge and co-exist with Beijing: “Many contentious issues will continue to haunt bilateral ties, including Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Taiwan. What’s more, even if relations thaw in the short term, the political values of the two countries remain fundamentally at odds.”

Robyn Urback (The Globe and Mail) on how politicians who recently travelled now have a message for Canadians: Don’t travel: “Travelling a year ago was a hard thing to justify. But fully vaccinated individuals who have followed the rules until now ought to be able to escape for a mental-health reprieve without the scorn of federal officials who might not even have unpacked yet from their campaign jaunts across the country.”

Parag Khanna (special to The Globe and Mail) on how if you’re searching for the American Dream, go to Canada: “After all, the “Canadian Dream” is much more attainable. Canada is a policy lab for experiments in reducing inequality. The country is far from perfect, but it ranks far higher than the U.S. in social mobility.”

Send along your political questions and we will look at getting answers to run in this newsletter. It’s not possible to answer each one personally. Questions and answers will be edited for length and clarity.

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop

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LETTER: On politics and medicine – SaltWire Network

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The irrational hysteria and conspiracy theories surrounding COVID-19 vaccines are an integral part of what historian Richard Hofstader called “The paranoid style in American politics.” This phenomenon has now permeated Canadian politics as well and suggests that “My ignorance is as good as your knowledge.”

Vaccines against disease and pestilence have been viewed as major advances for humanity. But few vaccines have been subjected to the scrutiny and public vilification that COVID-19 vaccines have. Why? The statistically minute number (percentage) of negative reactions to vaccines, including COVID-19 vaccines, is rarely mentioned by their detractors; similarly, every surgical procedure has a small probability of a complication.

Over the course of the past two centuries at least 15 life-saving vaccines have been developed without a similar public outcry. Those vaccines include (selectively): smallpox (1796), typhoid fever (1896), diphtheria (1923), whooping cough (1923), polio (1952), measles (1963), mumps (1967), chicken pox (1974), meningitis (1978), and malaria (2021). Defoe’s classic, A Journal of the Plague Year (1772) gives us an idea of what the world was like without vaccines.

Why COVID-19 vaccines have created such vitriol warrants serious sociological and political study. One suspects that there is a close correlation between right-wing populism, anti-immigrant, anti-abortion politics, and anti-vax sentiment. They are all part of the same political culture that promotes this paranoia. It would be easy to dismiss anti-vaxers as “know nothings,” but they are more than that. They mirror the social divisions within our society. And their ignorance is dangerous.

Canadian constitutional law is premised on promoting “peace, order and good government.” A corollary is that the courts attempt to follow John Stuart Mill’s dictum of creating, “The greatest good for the greatest number of people,” rather than the highly individualistic American approach of “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” Within this context, collective rights will supersede individual rights, which may be “reasonably limited” by circumstance such as a national emergency. The Canadian Charter of Rights was never intended to promote a wild west show like our neighbours to the south.

In the interest of public health policy, it is time to defend the history of science and its many advances.

Richard Deaton,

Stanley Bridge, P.E.I.

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