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India Slashes Taxes, Widens Budget Deficit to Spur Economy – Financial Post

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(Bloomberg) — India’s finance minister slashed taxes for individuals and widened budget deficit targets for the current and next fiscal years to help spur a slowing economy.

The government will miss its deficit goals for a third year, pushing the shortfall to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3% in the year ending March, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in Parliament in New Delhi Saturday. The deficit target for the coming fiscal year starting April 1 was widened to 3.5%.

Personal income tax rates for individuals were lowered as part of a goal to lift consumption in an economy that’s set to grow 5% this fiscal year, the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Read More: The Crisis That Shattered India’s Economic Dreams

“This is a budget to boost incomes and enhance purchasing power,” Sitharaman said at the beginning of a speech that lasted more than two and a half hours.

Tax cuts for individuals, outlined below, will cost the government 400 billion rupees ($5.6 billion) in revenue, she said:

The minister’s top adviser on Friday urged her to relax the deficit goal for the current year, saying reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority.” The adviser’s Economic Survey, a report that Sitharaman presented to lawmakers on Friday, estimates growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

Sitharaman used a provision in fiscal laws to enable the government to breach a mandated goal to bring the deficit down to 3% of GDP by the year ending March 2021.

Economists were muted in their reaction, saying the steps announced won’t be a sufficient boost for the economy.

“Overall, we see the budget as largely neutral for short-term growth,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore.

The deficit will be funded by a record market borrowing of 7.8 trillion rupees in the coming year. The government also plans to give foreign investors greater access to the nation’s debt, a move seen as a precursor to getting its securities included in global bond indexes.

Stocks Slump

India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex stocks index extended its decline to as much as 1.9% in Mumbai Saturday after Sitharaman proposed levying a dividend distribution tax on investors instead of companies, and announced abolishing some tax exemptions. The bonds and currency markets were shut.

“It is not a full-frontal fiscal stimulus that the markets were hoping for,” said Rini Sen, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Bengaluru

Moody’s Investors Service said the budget highlights the challenges to fiscal consolidation. India’s government debt is already “significantly higher” than the average for its Baa-rated peers, said Gene Fang, associate managing director of sovereign risk.

“Sustained weaker growth and tax cuts would make gross revenue targets difficult to achieve,” he said. “The government also has limited room to reduce expenditures without further weakening growth.”

Sitharaman said the budget was based around three main themes: an “aspirational India, economic development for all and a caring society.”

Here are some other highlights of her speech:

Markets: Abolishing dividend distribution tax for companies will entail a revenue loss of 250 billion rupeesFinancial sector: The government will sell its stake in IDBI Bank Ltd. and list state-owned Life Insurance Corp. of India on the stock exchangeExcise duties: Tax on cigarettes and other tobacco products to be increasedRural: Farm, rural sectors to be allocated 2.83 trillion rupees in the budget; agriculture credit target for next year set at 15 trillion rupeesInfrastructure: Transport infrastructure to be allocated 1.7 trillion rupees; a sum of 3.6 trillion rupees earmarked for piped water projects; power, renewable energy sector to get 220 billion rupeesEducation: 993 billion rupees allocated to sector; foreign investment will be allowed in education as well as overseas borrowing by institutionsInvestment: A program proposed to encourage the making of mobile phones, medical devices; proposal to allow private sector to build data center parks

“The budget is an acknowledgment that the fiscal isn’t looking good,” Ananth Narayan, a senior India analyst at Observatory Group told BloombergQuint. “The fiscal space for doing something big wasn’t there.”

Bloomberg.com

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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