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Indian government consumption key to growth in economy amid pandemic, central bank says – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Swati Bhat

MUMBAI (Reuters) – Indian government spending will support the economy during the pandemic, but private consumption will be needed to drive any economic recovery once the coronavirus threat eases, the central bank said on Tuesday.

“An assessment of aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption is severe, and it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum,” the Reserve Bank of India said in its annual report.

April-June quarter GDP data, set to be released on Aug. 31, is expected to show a contraction of 20%, according to a Reuters poll.

Private consumption will come back gradually with non-discretionary spending leading the way, until a durable increase in disposable incomes enables discretionary spending to catch up, the bank added.

“Upticks that became visible in May and June after the lockdown was eased … appear to have lost strength,” the bank said.

This weakening was mainly due to reimposition or tougher imposition of lockdowns, suggesting the contraction in economic activity was likely to prolong into the second fiscal quarter, it added.

Key downside risks to growth are wider pandemic spread, a deviation of seasonal monsoon rains from the predicted normal volume and global financial market volatility, the bank said.

The RBI advised that fiscal incentives for industry ought to be re-aligned in favour of productive labour-intensive companies so as to generate employment.

It also highlighted the need for specialised infrastructure-focused lending companies to help drive funding of major infrastructure projects. It also called for the diversification of financing options for companies, saying capital markets and foreign direct investment offer opportunities to bring in investors with a longer-term view, as also more durable capital.

The RBI said the banking sector needs to be freed of risk aversion, which is impeding the flow of credit to productive sectors and undermining the role of banks in the economy.

Despite a reduction in banks’ bad loans as of March 2020, the system’s resilience will be tested by the economic fallout of the pandemic, since measures to alleviate it masked the consequent build-up of stress in the system, the RBI said.

“Against this backdrop, a recapitalisation plan for public and private sector banks assumes critical importance,” it added.

In a separate report, the RBI had warned that banks’ bad loans could nearly double by the end of this fiscal year, while the capital adequacy ratio could fall to 11.8% in a severely stressed situation.

Data in the annual report showed frauds of 100,000 rupees and above at banks increased by 159% in terms of value in 2019/20, but the RBI said the date of occurrence of these was spread out over several previous years.

Total frauds stood at 1.86 trillion rupees in FY20 versus 715.43 billion rupees in FY19, data showed.

In the April-June quarter of 2020, however, frauds came down to 288.43 billion rupees in value versus 422.28 billion in the corresponding quarter in 2019.

The RBI’s own balance sheet increased 30.02% by June 30, it added.

The increase on the asset side was due to a rise in domestic and foreign investments, loans and gold while on the liability side it was due to the increase in notes issued, deposits and other liabilities, RBI said.

(Additional reporting by Nupur Anand and Manoj Kumar in New Delhi; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Steve Orlofsky)

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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