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India's budget aiming to revive economy despite limited fiscal headroom – Financial Post

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NEW DELHI — India’s finance minister is likely to announce measures including a hike in infrastructure spending and tax cuts to boost the pandemic-hit economy when she presents the annual budget later on Monday, while deferring debt cut plans.

Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to increase spending by more than 15% year-on-year in 2021-22 with an emphasis on infrastructure and healthcare, say senior officials and advisers involved in budget preparation.

The economy is projected to contract 7.7% in the current fiscal year. However in its annual report on the economy to parliament on Friday the government forecast growth of 11% for the coming fiscal year, after a massive COVID-19 vaccination drive and a rebound in consumer demand and investments.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said the budget will be in continuation of government efforts to revive sectors impacted by pandemic, which has hit all economic activities and led to millions of job losses mainly in small businesses.

The government is likely to hike import duties on a number of high-end goods in a bid to raise more than 210 billion rupees in revenue, government sources earlier told Reuters.

New Delhi is likely to rely heavily on privatization of state-run firms and sales of minority stakes in large companies such as Life Insurance Corp to fund its expenditure program.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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