BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s economy is likely to have returned to growth in the December quarter due to the easing of restrictions on movement after the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic peaked, a Reuters poll predicted.
The median forecast from a survey of 58 economists, conducted between Feb. 18-24, put year-on-year growth at 0.5% in the December quarter, as the economy stabilised after contracting 23.9% and 7.5% in April-June and July-Sept quarters respectively.
“We forecast a mild expansion in the December quarter owing to strong resumption in economic activity, festival led consumer spending and modest recovery in manufacturing,” said Rini Sen, economist at ANZ. “We believe services likely spearheaded growth.”
The previous poll, taken a month ago, had predicted a 2.0%contraction.
However, the wide range of forecasts in the latest poll – from a contraction of 4.7% to a 2.6% expansion – underscores the uncertainty.
India has reported the second highest number of coronavirus cases, lagging only behind the United States, but it is widely accepted that infections are far higher than officially recorded.
The economic recovery has been aided by the government’s spending plan and its commitment to not bring its fiscal deficit down to pre-pandemic levels for at least five years, and by the Reserve Bank of India’s pledge to keep monetary policy accommodative.
“Pent-up goods demand supported by elevated financial savings have led to a rise in manufacturing. Alongside this, a strong pick-up in government spending on social welfare schemes and capital expenditure has also helped,” noted economists at HSBC.
The central bank slashed its key repo rate by 115 basis points last year and has since held it steady at 4%.
“We expect liquidity normalisation to be calibrated and incremental during the course of the year. No change is expected in the repo rate this year,” said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank in Singapore.
Minutes of the last RBI monetary policy committee meeting showed optimism for a recovery, but concerns have increased about a second wave of infections and renewed lockdowns in a few areas in the state of Maharashtra, which accounts for about 16% of India’s economic output.
(Reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava; Polling by Md. Manzer Hussain and Nagamani Lingappa; Editing by Rahul Karunakar & Simon Cameron-Moore)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
